Jacob Schewe, PIK ISI-MIP water sector: Data & results.

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Presentation transcript:

Jacob Schewe, PIK ISI-MIP water sector: Data & results

Jacob Schewe, PIK The multi-model ensemble Climate data: Global hydrological models (GHMs): DBH H08* JULES LPJmL Mac-PDM.09 MATSIRO MPI-HM PCR-GLOBWB VIC WaterGAP* WBMplus *human water use/withdrawals available HadGEM2-ES IPSL-CM5A-LR MIROC-ESM-CHEM GFDL-ESM2M NorESM1-M Output: Daily… temperature precipitation radiation wind speed surface pressure Interpolated to 0.5° x 0.5° Bias-corrected monthly means and daily variability, using WATCH forcing data, preserving future relative (temperature: absolute) trends (Hempel et al., 2013) Bias correction (for all ISI-MIP simulations): incl. dynamic vegetation

Jacob Schewe, PIK Output variables

Jacob Schewe, PIK Output variables

Jacob Schewe, PIK Scenarios

Jacob Schewe, PIK First Results Papers using ISI-MIP water sector data: Wada Y., Wisser D., Eisner S., Flörke M., Gerten D., Haddeland I., Hanasaki N., Masaki Y., Portmann F.T., Stacke T., Tessler Z., and Schewe J. (2013): Multi-model projections and uncertainties of irrigation water demand under climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi: /grl Haddeland I., et al. (2013): Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change. PNAS, accepted Piontek, F., Müller, C., Pugh, T.A.M, et al. (2013): Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world. PNAS (early online edition) [DOI: /pnas ] Schewe, J. et al. (2013): Multi-model assessment of water scarcity under climate change. PNAS, accepted Rutger Dankers, Nigel W. Arnell, Douglas B. Clark, Pete D. Falloon, Balazs M. Fekete, Simon N. Gosling, Jens Heinke k, Hyungjun Kim, Yoshimitsu Masaki, Yusuke Satoh, and Tobias Stacke (2013): A first look at changes in flood hazard in the ISI-MIP ensemble, PNAS, accepted J. C. S. Davie, P. D. Falloon, R. Kahana, R. Dankers, R. Betts, F. T. Portmann, D. B. Clark, A. Itoh, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, B. Fekete, Z. Tessler, X. Liu6, Q. Tang, S. Hagemann, T. Stacke, R. Pavlick, S. Gosling, W. Franssen, and N. Arnell (2013): Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP, Earth System Dynamics. Portmann F. T., Döll P., Eisner S., and Flörke M. (2013): Impact of climate change on renewable groundwater resources: assessing the benefits of avoided greenhouse gas emissions using selected CMIP5 climate projections, Environ. Res. Lett doi: / /8/2/

Jacob Schewe, PIK Discharge changes at 2°C* Multi-model mean of relative change in annual mean discharge *above present Schewe et al., 2013

Jacob Schewe, PIK Impact on population RCP8.5 one model run, 30- year average Measure of severe reduction in water availability: Decrease in annual discharge by more than 20% or 1σ Schewe et al., 2013

Jacob Schewe, PIK Water scarcity chronic water shortageextreme water shortage Use a ‘constant-climate’ run to separate the climate effect: RCP8.5-constClim constClim = amplification by climate change % Schewe et al., 2013

Jacob Schewe, PIK Flood Hazard Dankers et al., 2013

Jacob Schewe, PIK Drought Prudhomme et al., under review % change in drought days

Jacob Schewe, PIK Human impacts on water cycle Haddeland et al., 2013 naturalized runoff change with human impacts (dams, withdrawals)

Jacob Schewe, PIK Irrigation water demand Wada et al., 2013