Money and Politics on the International Stage James Raymond Vreeland Associate Professor School of Foreign Service Georgetown University Presentation for Parents’ Weekend October 16, 2010

What do professors really do?

Who is this guy? WEGG

The responsibilities of a professor Teaching Service Research

My classes International Political Economy –Economics: distribution of scarce resources –Politics: the role of the state in such distribution –International: how the flows of such resources across borders plays a role Flows: goods & service (trade), money (capital mobility), people (immigration), pollutants (the environment), violence (terrorism) International Organizations –The ways international institutions impact these flows The IMF –Specific financial flows

Pedagogy Substance Analytical tools Teaching to fish

Technology in the classroom Professor 2.0 – bring your laptops to class Syllabus: Google: Google scholar: – Wikipedia?

Service (Meetings, committees) Advising students Service to the profession –Conferences –Reviewing research –Giving talks…

Research Informs what I teach Keeps me on the cutting edge Signals to the world Georgetown faculty strength –Signal attracts great students (peers) –Signals employers the university’s caliber

A current research project…

UNSC IMFWorld Bank IMF/WB project in Ghana

The question: To gain leverage over one international institution can a country use its power in another international institution?

Yes. Why? The US and other powerful countries, who virtually control the IMF & World Bank, care about how the UNSC votes.

The goal of the major shareholders of the IMF: –Get countries under a program – in case important votes come up. Godfather-esque: “Some day, and that day may never come, I'll call upon you to do a service for me. But uh, until that day, accept this justice as a gift on my daughter’s wedding day.”

A quick example Tanzania: no IMF, no UNSC –1975 UNSC member First IMF arrangement – exceedingly weak conditionality (credit ceiling)

IMF reply in the Washington Post (November 1, 2006): An IMF spokesman said “the [Tanzania] evidence is anecdotal and circumstantial.” To convince people, we need –many more anecdotes –statistical evidence (it’s not just luck)

Table 3: Controlling for Additional Predictors of IMF Participation Pooled Logit Country Fixed Effects Regional Fixed Effects Year Fixed Effects Temporal Splines UNSC 0.59**0.83**0.56**0.51**0.64** (Robust std error)(0.24)(0.29)(0.26)(0.22)(0.29) Foreign Reserves -0.15** ** (Robust std error)(0.03)(0.07)(0.03) (0.08) Debt Service 0.02** ** 0.02** (Robust std error)(0.01) Investment -0.06**-0.08*-0.05**-0.04**-0.05 (Robust std error)(0.01)(0.05)(0.01) (0.04) Past Participation 2.47**2.42**2.45**2.27**2.00* (Robust std error)(0.26)(0.45)(0.27)(0.34)(1.13) Lagged Election (Robust std error)(0.16)(0.18)(0.16)(0.17)(0.21) Budget Surplus ** ** (Robust std error)(0.02)(0.03)(0.02) (0.03) Inflation ** * ** (Robust std error)(0.0001)(0.0002)(0.0001) (0.0002) Current Account (Robust std error)(0.01)(0.02)(0.01) (0.02) BOP -3.89* (Robust std error)(2.07)(3.17)(2.09)(2.07)(3.22) GDP/capita (1995 PPP) ** * **-0.001** (Robust std error)( )(0.0002)( ) (0.0002) Growth (Robust std error)(0.005)(0.02)(0.004) (0.02) Regime (Robust std error)(0.19)(0.39)(0.20)(0.18)(0.41) log(checks) (Robust std error)(0.14)(0.25)(0.14)(0.10)(0.24)

Average # of World Bank projects avg=1.29 std=1.95 avg=2.13 std=2.93 avg=1.28avg=1.30 std=1.96std=1.93 avg=2.15avg=2.10 std=2.96std=2.92 avg=2.06avg=2.19 std=2.75std=3.11 n=176n=181 Non- n=5333n=357 member Member Total sample avg=1.29 std=1.95 n=5333 Non- member 1st.year member 2nd year member Over time n=2638n=183n=2695n=174 Non- member Member Non- member Member During the cold warAfter the cold war

Observation by Russian Student Bribes – no surprise –Trade money for votes But the US bribes… –with a loan –must be repaid! Impressive!

Regional Organizations Regional Hegemons

Allocation of ADB lending by UNSC membership over time Daniel Yew Mao Lim, Class of 2011

Going Multipolar? Political power & international institutions No one at the global level Politics go to regional level

Georgetown global impact Places I have taught classes: Places I have held a research affiliation: Places I have presented my research:

Conclusion Teaching Advising Research –Informs our teaching –Strengthens our global reputation

Thank you WE ARE GLOBAL GEORGETOWN!