Seasonal Outlook Long Range Forecast Krissy Scotten NWS AMARILLO

Climate Data Outlets National Weather Service Amarillo http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=ama U.S. Drought Monitor http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov Climate Prediction Center (CPC) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Amarillo 26.32 in (+7.22)/3 in. Snow Borger 16.75 in. (-4.53)/3 in. Snow Dalhart 15.59 in. (-2.44)/Trace Snow Guymon, OK 14.79 in. (-1.78)/0.0 Snow

Amarillo 2011 Climate Stats Currently the warmest year on record (63.6° F) Currently the driest year on record (4.84 inches - 14.01 inches below normal) Record for most number of 100-degree days in a calendar year (50) Record for most number of 90-degree days in a calendar year (107) Record for most consecutive 90-degree days (50) July was the warmest month ever on record (85.2° F) Warmest July (85.2° F) and August (85.1° F) on record

www.srh.noaa.gov/ama

Climate Reports Amarillo, TX Borger, TX Dalhart, TX Guymon, OK

Texas and Oklahoma Supplemental Observations (AGO and OSO)

Climate Prediction Center 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day Temperature and Precipitation Maps 30-Day and 90-Day Seasonal Outlooks for Temperatures and Precipitation Information on El Niño and La Niña

Drought Information

http://www. cpc. ncep. noaa http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.gif

El Niño, La Niña, and Everything In Between What exactly do they mean? How will it affect you?

The Facts El Niño and La Niña episodes typically occur every 3-5 years. However, in the historical record this interval has varied from 2 to 7 years. El Niño typically lasts 9-12 months, and La Niña typically lasts 1-3 years. They both tend to develop during March-June, reach peak intensity between December and April, and then weaken May-July.

The Basic Differences El Niño and La Niña represent opposite extremes in the naturally occurring climate cycle The two have opposite extremes in sea surface temperatures, convective rainfall, surface air pressure, atmospheric circulation, and departures in the tropics from Indonesia to South America (approximately ½ the distance around the globe).

EL NIÑO Easterly winds weaken Water temperatures and depth of warm water increase Tropical rainfall increases

LA NIÑA Easterly winds strengthen Water temperatures and depth of cold water decrease Tropical rains shift westward

EL NIÑO/LA NIÑA Individual storms or events CANNOT be blamed on La Niña or El Niño! Rather, these climate extremes affect the position and intensity of the jet streams and the normal regions of high and low pressure, which in turn affect the average intensity and track of storms.

Jet Stream Position

Effects on Texas LA NIÑA EL NIÑO Warmer and drier Cooler and wetter Jet Stream farther south Snowier than normal LA NIÑA Warmer and drier Jet Stream farther north Drought and fires common

Current ENSO Forecast La Niña Advisory is in Effect! La Niña conditions are expected to gradually strengthen and continue through the 2011-2012 winter. El Niño conditions (cool and wet for Texas Panhandle) have less than a 2% chance of developing.

1-Month Temperature Outlook

1-Month Precipitation Outlook

3-Month Temperature Outlook

3-Month Precipitation Outlook

**Amarillo Normal: 17.9”** Average La Niña Years: 13.4” Snow in La Niña Years 1950 - 0.1” 1951 - 6.4” 1955 - 2.3” 1956 - 15.7” 1963 - 8.9” 1965 - 13.1” 1968 - 13.6” 1971 - 27” 1972 - 17.3” 1974 - 6.7” 1975 - 18.9” 1976 - 6.4” 1985 - 10.7” 1989 - 9.8” 1996 - 15.5” 1999 – 23” 2000 - 33.9” 2001 - 20.5” 2008 - 7.1” 2011 - 14.6” **Amarillo Normal: 17.9”** Average La Niña Years: 13.4”

Tornadoes in La Niña Years 1955 - 6 1956 - 2 1963 - 5 1965 - 12 1968 - 22 1971 - 39 1972 - 19 1974 - 13 1975 - 16 1976 - 10 1985 - 3 1989 - 32 1996 - 35 1999 - 25 2000 - 9 2001 - 22 2008 - 12 2011 - 5 **Forecast Area Normal: 21** Average La Niña Years: 16.5

Climate Normals for Amarillo Average Temperature Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual   1981-2010 37 40.3 47.9 56.3 65.6 74.4 78.3 76.8 69.5 58.3 46.3 36.9 57.4 1971-2000 35.8 40.6 56.2 65.2 74.3 78.2 76.3 69.1 58.2 45.1 57 Average Max Temperature 50.6 54.2 62.5 71.1 79.5 87.7 91.4 89.4 82.6 71.9 60 49.7 71 48.9 54.1 62.2 70.6 78.6 87.4 91 88.7 81.8 71.8 58.4 49.8 70.3 Average Min Temperature 23.4 26.4 33.3 41.6 51.8 61 64.2 56.4 44.7 32.5 24 43.8 22.6 27 33.6 41.7 51.7 61.1 65.3 63.8 44.6 31.8 24.1 43.6 Precipitation 0.72 0.56 1.39 1.4 2.29 3.16 2.84 2.91 1.92 1.66 0.8 0.71 20.36 0.63 0.55 1.13 1.33 2.5 3.28 2.68 2.94 1.88 1.5 0.68 0.61 19.71 Snow 4.7 2.9 0.7 0.2 3.7 17.8 4.8 4.1 1.7 0.4 2.4 17.9

Long Range Texas Forecast Warmer and drier conditions continuing??? Increased fire threat? Continuation of significant drought conditions? YES!

Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get. ANY QUESTIONS? Krissy Scotten (806) 335-1421 Kristin.Scotten@NOAA.GOV