National Weather Service Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Drought Briefing 10/24/2014 Jeff McMurphy Senior Hydrologist – ABRFC James Paul Service.

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Presentation transcript:

National Weather Service Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Drought Briefing 10/24/2014 Jeff McMurphy Senior Hydrologist – ABRFC James Paul Service Coordination Hydrologist

Arkansas Red Basin River Forecast Center 90-Day Observed Precipitation

Arkansas Red Basin River Forecast Center 90-Day Percent of Normal Precipitation

Arkansas Red Basin River Forecast Center 180-Day Observed Precipitation

Arkansas Red Basin River Forecast Center 180-Day Percent of Normal Precipitation

Arkansas Red Basin River Forecast Center Year to Date Observed Precipitation As of 10/23/14

Arkansas Red Basin River Forecast Center Year to Date Percent of Normal Precipitation

Arkansas Red Basin River Forecast Center Year to Date Departure from Normal Precipitation (-8” to -12”)

Slightly Warm Sea Surface Temps

The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) predicts a weak El Niño starting during November and lasting through mid 2015.

Climate Prediction Center Three Month Precipitation/Temperature Outlooks

El Nino Events of the Past

ABRFC website:

National Weather Service Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Drought Briefing 10/24/2014 Jeff McMurphy Senior Hydrologist – ABRFC James Paul Service Coordination Hydrologist

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