Presented at: The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Moscow, Russian Federation December 2013 Demography, “The Deal”, and the Rise of Equity Politics in Israel’s Democracy Richard Cincotta Wilson Center Global Fellow Demographer-in-residence The Stimson Center

1.Special Case (1) for Political Demography: Liberal democracy where the secular majority has passed through the demographic transition, and where two minorities that are antagonistic to the state as it is currently institutionalized, have not. 2.Special Case (2) for Political Demography: A minority that was organized to counter secularization and fertility decline (ultra- Orthodox); a minority organized to perpetuate settlement (religious orthodox settlers). Objective: To reasonably forecast some aspect of future elections based upon minority demographic trends, and majority public and political response to those trends. ISRAEL

Projections: Cincotta & Kaufmann, 2010 Projected changes in the composition of Israel’s age structure, 2005 to Shifting composition in a relatively stable age structure

Ethno-religious demographic trends Data: Paltiel et al (Israeli Bureau of Statistics) Figure: Cincotta, 2013

Votes Arab-led parties Ultra-Orthodox-led parties Other parties Population (x1,000) Ultra-Orthodox Sources: Paltiel et al., Central Bureau of Statistics (Israel), 2012; Election Commission (of Israel), 2013

Source: Election Commission (of Israel), 2013

Fringe parties Left, Center, Right Coalitions Trends in Knesset seats Source: Election Commission (of Israel), 2013

UTJ Arab-led Shas Source: Election Commission (of Israel), 2013

Election Outcomes: Votes & Knesset seats, 15 th to 19 th Knessets Source: Election Commission (of Israel), 2013 Figure: Cincotta, 2013

Conclusions: 1.Ultra-Orthodox parties (or Arab-led parties) are unlikely coalition partners in post-election governments for the foreseeable future. 2.Coalitions of rightist and centrist parties are the most likely outcomes of Israeli elections for the foreseeable future. Unification governments are less likely possibilities. 3.The possibility of center-vs-right reformist rivalries looms on the horizon. While reformists are unified on issues of minority-relevant reforms, divisions exist over Israeli- Palestinian territorial questions.

Unsettled Demographic Issues: 1.Continued high fertility among minorities: Ultra-Orthodox, Israeli Arabs (particularly Bedouin), and West Bank settlers. 2.Institutional reinforcements of differentiation: Four educational systems, deferments from conscription (reforms occurring), state support for yeshiva and stipends for students, exclusion from national service (Muslim and Christian Arabs), absence of secular family law (marriages, divorces). 3.Residential segregation. Perhaps the most powerful impediment to “demographic integration”, is unlikely to be altered.

Projections: Cincotta & Kaufmann, 2010 Are standard methods of projecting the aggregate population appropriate for states with significant ethno-religious fertility differentials? [No, of course] Shifting composition in a relatively stable age structure