Five ecologically distinct functional groups Three trophic levels.

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Presentation transcript:

Five ecologically distinct functional groups Three trophic levels

Continuous Plankton Recorder

A diatom, showing the typical results for diatoms and copepods A dinoflagellate, showing the typical results for dinoflagellates and zooplankton

Marine food-web succession: copepods and diatoms first, followed by primary and secondary consumers

Little shift in mean seasonal peak – peak during turnover in water column responding to photoperiod cues

Advance in mean seasonal peak – peak after turnover in water column responding to temperature cues

Peak abundance is: Earlier Later

Units of Y-axis are months

Producers Consumers

Climate Envelope Modelling Approach: 1.Observed effects on (distribution, abundance) and growth of temperature and dissolved O2 2. Projected changes in temperature and dissolved O2 under SRES A2 Scenario.

Cod Haddock

Chinook and RBT: 24 C thermal tolerance Bull trout: 14.4 C thermal tolerance -95 th percentile of frequency distribution -on a weekly scale John Day River system Hobo temperature loggers

Max stream temperature = fn (max air temp + solar radiation)

AIR TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS A1B emissions scenario

(a)Historic ( ) (b)Projection ( ) Chinook and RBT: 24 C thermal tolerance Bull trout: 14.4 C thermal tolerance

MS – main stems TRB – tributaries ALL - combined L – loss by reach length V- loss by reach volume vs