Red Ink and Wrong Choices Scott Lilly February 25, 2005.

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Presentation transcript:

Red Ink and Wrong Choices Scott Lilly February 25, 2005

RED INK & WRONG CHOICES

Phony Numbers  Two Sets of Books  Hidden Costs

Economic growth is forecast at 3.6% when administration talks about its budget deficits It is only 1.6% when it determines whether or not we need emergency surgery on Social Security Two Sets of Books?

Hidden Costs? No Money to Pay the Troops in Iraq or Afghanistan and no money to bring them home. White House Plans to reduce the alternative minimum tax and extend numerous temporary tax provisions are conveniently left out of the computations

Fiscal Catastrophe Phony numbers can only partially hide the scope of this budget disaster. By 2011:  Administration’s own estimates show public debt growing by $1.6 trillion  Public debt per household will rise by 34%  Interest payments on the public debt will swell to more than $300 billion a year—approaching the cost of the entire domestic side of the federal government.

Doesn’t Attack Real Problem  War and tax cuts don’t go together  No effort at controlling health care costs which are wrecking federal, state, corporate and family budgets  All cuts are directed at one tiny part of the budget which if eliminated would not solve the fiscal mess.

Cut Zone Equals Only About 15% of Total Federal Spending

Cut Zone Includes Most of the Investments in Our Future Education Science Transportation Environment (All the things we need to do to insure that the next generation can make the necessary contributions to Social Security)

The Year Ahead Discretionary Programs have $12 billion increase Defense gets $18 billion Foreign Aid and Diplomacy get $3.8 billion Domestic is down by $10.8 billion Adjusting for inflation, domestic is down by $19 billion or 5%

Budget by Old Appropriation Subcommittees Ag -1.4billion CJS-0.5 billion Energy & Water-1.0 billion Interior-0.5 billion Labor-HHS-Ed-1.4 billion Transpo-Treasury-1.4 billion VA-HUD+0.7 billion

Reality Is Far Worse Than Aggregate Numbers Indicate Numerous Proposals for Reductions that are not tenable even to Republicans $24.7 in program cuts $2.4 billion in new fees

Walk the Plank or Fall Apart? Either Way There Will Be Huge Opportunities Politically sensitive programs that may be cut: Education Food Safety Elderly Nutrition Rural Assistance VA Medical Law Enforcement Disease Surveillance Disease Research Homeland Security Clean Water

Be Patient, Be Prepared  We need to recognize the opportunity  We need to refine our message  We need to recognize that the battle for public opinion is the only real means that progressives have of stopping these policies