Presented to: COMSTAC RLV Working Group By: Ken Wong, Licensing and Safety Division Deputy Manager Date: October 10, 2007 Federal Aviation Administration Federal Aviation Administration Working With COMSTAC To Develop An Appropriate Human Space Flight Safety Performance Target

2 Federal Aviation Administration Development of HSF Safety Performance Target October 10, Background The FAA has specific performance targets that it tracks to measure how well it is meeting certain objectives such as in the area of improving safety. One of these performance targets pertains to commercial space launches: –No fatalities, serious injuries, or significant property damage to the uninvolved public during licensed or permitted space launch and reentry activities. In anticipation of commercial human space flight (HSF) in the future, the FAA briefed the COMSTAC RLV Working Group on May 17, 2007, about the FAA’s plan to work with COMSTAC to develop an additional safety performance target for flight crew and space flight participants.

3 Federal Aviation Administration Development of HSF Safety Performance Target October 10, Rationale for Developing a Commercial HSF Safety Performance Target Existing performance target only pertains to safety of the uninvolved public, i.e., those persons not involved in supporting a launch or reentry. –Does not pertain to those on board a vehicle during a launch or reentry. The Commercial Space Launch Amendments Act of 2004 (CSLAA) states that “Space transportation is inherently risky, and the future of the commercial human space flight industry will depend on its ability to continually improve its safety performance.” –Developing an appropriate commercial HSF safety performance target is a step toward establishing an initial target for measuring and improving HSF safety and acknowledging that HSF is risky.

4 Federal Aviation Administration Development of HSF Safety Performance Target October 10, Example of an HSF Safety Performance Target (For Discussion Purposes Only) Commercial HSF Fatal Accident Rate –Limit the fatal accident rate for commercial launches and reentries carrying flight crew or space flight participants to less than the overall historical rate of 1%. Note: The 1% is based on historical and empirical data (see next chart). This is not to infer that industry will use this number as its design goal; it is anticipated that industry will design to a much higher reliability or lower failure rate.

5 Federal Aviation Administration Development of HSF Safety Performance Target October 10, Supporting Data for HSF Safety Performance Target Example (For Discussion Purposes Only) Overall historical HSF fatal accident rate is based on number of fatal accidents divided by total number of launches with crew or space flight participants. –Includes launches by NASA (Mercury, Gemini, Apollo, Shuttle, etc.) and the U.S. military (X-15), as well as foreign and commercial launches. –To date, there have been 5 fatal accidents in 463 crewed orbital and suborbital launches, resulting in an overall historical rate of approximately 1%. Commercial HSF fatal accident rate is based on number of fatal accidents during commercial missions divided by total number of commercial launches with flight crew or space flight participants. –Commercial launch statistics include both licensed and permitted launches. –Commercial HSF fatal accident rate is currently 0% 0 fatal accidents in 5 licensed launches with a human on board

6 Federal Aviation Administration Development of HSF Safety Performance Target October 10, Other Options or Considerations Should the historical fatal accident rate be based on both U.S. and foreign missions? Should there be more than one HSF safety performance target such as a different safety performance target for –Licensed launches versus permitted launches? –Flight crew versus space flight participants? –Suborbital missions versus orbital missions? –Fatalities versus casualties?

7 Federal Aviation Administration Development of HSF Safety Performance Target October 10, Next Step Request that the COMSTAC RLV Working Group: –Review and provide comments on the HSF safety performance target example and the other options or considerations presented in this briefing or –Provide other suggestions on developing an appropriate HSF safety performance target. Please comments and suggestions to Michael S. Kelly, the RLV Working Group chairman, and Ken Wong by November 20, 2007:

8 Federal Aviation Administration Development of HSF Safety Performance Target October 10, Backup Chart

9 Federal Aviation Administration Development of HSF Safety Performance Target October 10, Examples of Aviation-related Safety Performance Targets Reduce commercial air carrier fatalities –Limit the three-year rolling average fatal accident rate to fatal accidents per 100,000 departures* –Cut the rate of fatalities per 100 million persons on board in half by FY 2025** Reduce the number of fatal accidents in general aviation –By FY 2009, reduce the number of general aviation and nonscheduled Part 135 fatal accidents from the average of 385 per year to no more than 319 accidents per year. This measure will be converted from a number to a rate in FY 2009** Strategic Initiative: Working with industry, by FY 2009, develop and baseline a target rate for general aviation fatal accidents to replace the current performance measure. * FAA Flight Plan ** FAA Flight Plan