Chile: Macroeconomic Outlook (and Tremors) Rodrigo Valdés Central Bank of Chile.

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Presentation transcript:

Chile: Macroeconomic Outlook (and Tremors) Rodrigo Valdés Central Bank of Chile

Agenda External conditions: A double dip earthquake Policy response –Fiscal policy: Structural surplus rule –Monetary policy in an inflation targeting framework and free float Results and further issues –Policy traction (effectiveness) –Maneuvering space

External Conditions

Terms of Trade (Index 1996=100) Sept. avg May

Chilean Sovereign Spreads (basis points) EMBI Chile 2009 Chile Jul (Chile)(EMBI)

Net Capital Inflows ( % of GDP, four quarter moving average) III98III99III00III01III02 III (p)

Policy Response

Central Government Fiscal Surplus (% of GDP) Official W/O CSF Privatiz.

Consolidated Public Debt (% of GDP) Gross (June) Net (Net)(Gross)

Chile: Inflation and Targets (annual %)

Private Sector Expected Inflation (%) PRBC-360 one-year TAB 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 01Feb.Apr.Jun.Aug.Oct.Dec.Jun.Oct. survey

Short-Term External Debt and FX Reserves (Debt/Reserves ratio, %) (Sep.)

Financial System Indicators (%) Non-Perf. LoansProfitabilityBasel Index Dec.' June ' Sept Dec Mar. ' June July Aug Sept n.a.

MPR and Central Bank Bonds Interest Rates (%) (mpr, pdbc) (prc) PRC-20 PRC-8 PDBC-30 PDBC-90 MPR Aug-01Oct-01Dec-01Feb-02Apr-02Jun-02Aug-02Oct

Real and Nominal Exchange Rate (index, 1996=100, w/r to G-5) NER-5 RER

Results and Further Issues

GDP and Domestic Demand Real Growth (%, four quarters moving average) GDP Demand III98III99III00III01III02III

Further Issues Policy traction (effectiveness) has been lower than expected –Political pressure for “more” –Questions regarding the value of credibility rewards –Anyway, what is the benchmark? (crisis vs downturn) Maneuvering space: bounded –Fiscal rule may collide with market expectations –FX market required the announcement of intervention

Chile: Macroeconomic Outlook (and Tremors) Rodrigo Valdés Central Bank of Chile