ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 RT5: Evaluation Albert Klein Tank & Antonio Navarra / Elisa Manzini.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

EURO4M: European Reanalysis and Observations for Monitoring

Advertisements

1 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Hadley Centre ENSEMBLES ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts.

RT4: Understanding the processes governing climate variability and change, climate predictability and the probability of extreme events Coordinators: UREADMM.

RT6 ENSEMBLES Kickoff Hamburg September 2004 ENSEMBLES Kickoff Meeting Hamburg - September 2004 RT6 Assessments of impacts of climate change Andy Morse,

Page 1© Crown copyright 2007 Initial tendencies of cloud regimes in the Met Office Unified Model Keith Williams and Malcolm Brooks Met Office, Hadley Centre.

ENSEMBLES Work Package 6.2 Meeting, Helsinki, Finland, April 2007 ENSEMBLES in Helsinki WELCOME / TERVETULOA!

ENSEMBLES General Assembly, Prague, Czech Republic, November 2007 Potential WP Participants (known absentees underlined): DJF, DISAT, FMI, FUB, LUND,

European Reanalysis and Observations for Monitoring EURO4M: European Reanalysis and Observations for Monitoring EU-project, April 2010 – March 2014, 9.

WRMA-WMO-World Bank-WFP Expert Meeting, Geneva, Dec KNMI servicing the market

Model error diagnosis: One possible contribution of the PDP community to the THORPEX goals Thomas Jung 1,2 & members of the THORPEX PDP and WGNE & Mark.

NCAS-Climate: Carries out research into climate change and variability, motivated by the need to understand how the climate system will evolve over the.

Numerical Weather Prediction Models

© Crown copyright Met Office The Met Office high resolution seasonal prediction system Anca Brookshaw – Monthly to Decadal Variability and Prediction,

Resolution and Athena – some introductory comments Tim Palmer ECMWF and Oxford.

Task: (ECSK06) Regional downscaling Regional modelling with HadGEM3-RA driven by HadGEM2-AO projections National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR)/KMA.

Mechanistic crop modelling and climate reanalysis Tom Osborne Crops and Climate Group Depts. of Meteorology & Agriculture University of Reading.

Review of Northern Winter 2010/11

Status of the RCM climate change simulations. ERA40 driven MPIM-RCM.

RT6 RT3 and RT4/RT5 Feb 2005 Meetings ENSEMBLES Meetings RT3 Copenhagen, RT4/RT5 Paris, February 2005 RT6 Assessments of impacts of climate.

The NCEP operational Climate Forecast System : configuration, products, and plan for the future Hua-Lu Pan Environmental Modeling Center NCEP.

ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, February 2005 Overview of Seasonal-to-Decadal (s2d) Activities during the Initial 18 Months Francisco J. Doblas.

© Crown copyright Met Office Met Office seasonal forecasting for winter Jeff Knight (with thanks to many colleagues)

28 August 2006Steinhausen meeting Hamburg On the integration of weather and climate prediction Lennart Bengtsson.

RT4: Understanding the processes governing climate variability and change, climate predictability and the probability of extreme events Coordinators: ●

Verification of Numerical Weather Prediction systems employed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology over East Antarctica during the summer season.

Report from CLARIS WP3.1: Climate Change Downscaling Partners: CNRS, CONICET, UBA, ¿IMPE?, ¿USP?, INGV, UCLM, UCH, MPI External partners: SENAMHI (Peru),

Impacts of La Niña (and NAO) on Washington DC Winters Winter Media Workshop 12/9/2011 Jared Klein LWX Climate Program Leader.

WWRP/WCRP/THORPEX Workshop – Representing model uncertainty on seasonal time scales2 December 2010 INSTITUT CATALÀ DE CIÈNCIES DEL CLIMA Representing model.

Page 1GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 ENSEMBLES. Page 2GMES - ENSEMBLES 2008 The ENSEMBLES Project  Began 4 years ago, will end in December 2009  Supported by.

Climate Forecasting Unit Second Ph’d training talk Prediction of climate extreme events at seasonal and decadal time scale Aida Pintó Biescas.

Climate Forecasting Unit Prediction of climate extreme events at seasonal and decadal time scale Aida Pintó Biescas.

Int. Conference on S2S Prediction, Feb Extra-tropical flow regimes and connections with tropical rainfall in the MINERVA experiments Franco.

© Crown copyright Met Office Climate Projections for West Africa Andrew Hartley, Met Office: PARCC national workshop on climate information and species.

DEMETER Taiwan, October 2003 Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction   DEMETER Noel Keenlyside,

CAUSES (Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface) "A new project with an observationally-based focus, which evaluates the role of clouds,

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Santander, Spain, 23 October 2008 RT5: Evaluation Objective:comprehensive and independent evaluation of the performance of the.

EUROBRISA Workshop – Beyond seasonal forecastingBarcelona, 14 December 2010 INSTITUT CATALÀ DE CIÈNCIES DEL CLIMA Beyond seasonal forecasting F. J. Doblas-Reyes,

Page 1© Crown copyright 2004 ENSEMBLES Kick-off Meeting Dave Griggs, Director Hadley Centre, 15 September 2004.

An Integrated Project under the 6 th Framework Programme of the EU Project Overview Project Office can be contacted on Web.

Monsoon Intraseasonal-Interannual Variability and Prediction Harry Hendon BMRC (also CLIVAR AAMP) Acknowledge contributions: Oscar Alves, Eunpa Lim, Guomin.

Seasonal forecasting from DEMETER to ENSEMBLES21 July 2009 Seasonal Forecasting From DEMETER to ENSEMBLES Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes ECMWF.

European Climate Assessment CCl/CLIVAR ETCCDMI meeting Norwich, UK November 2003 Albert Klein Tank KNMI, the Netherlands.

Added Value of Convection-Resolving Climate Simulations (CRCSs) Andreas F. Prein 1, Andreas Gobiet 1, Martin Suklitsch 1, Heimo Truhetz 1, Naumen K. Awan.

Work Package 23: Impact models for impact predictions Karina Williams, on behalf of Jemma Gornall WP23 Participants: Met Office, Predictia, WU, IC3, UNIVLEEDS,

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Prague, Czech Republic, 14 November 2007 RT5: Evaluation Albert Klein Tank & Elisa Manzini.

ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Joint Meeting Paris, February 2005 Overview of the WP5.3 Activities Partners: ECMWF, METO/HC, MeteoSchweiz, KNMI, IfM, CNRM, UREAD/CGAM,

Using satellite data to understand uncertainties in reanalyses: UERRA Richard Renshaw, Peter Jermey with thanks to Jörg Trentmann, Jennifer Lenhardt, Andrea.

Status and Plans of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Bruno Rudolf, Tobias Fuchs and Udo Schneider (GPCC) Overview: Introduction to the.

Y. Fujii 1, S. Matsumoto 1, T. Yasuda 1, M. Kamachi 1, K. Ando 2 （ 1 MRI/JMA, 2 JAMSTEC ） OSE Experiments Using the JMA-MRI ENSO Forecasting System 2nd.

“Building the daily observations database for the European Climate Assessment” KNMI.nl CLARIS meeting, 7 july 2005.

NOAA/WSWC Meeting on advancing a Seasonal Precipitation Forecast Improvement Project Name: Andy Wood Organization: NCAR Research Applications Laboratory.

Copernicus Observations Requirements Workshop, Reading Requirements from agriculture applications Nadine Gobron On behalf Andrea Toreti & MARS colleagues.

© Crown copyright Met Office Stratospheric Extension to the CHFP “S-CHFP” and links to WCRP-SPARC Adam Scaife WGSIP July 2010.

The ENSEMBLES high- resolution gridded daily observed dataset Malcolm Haylock, Phil Jones, Climatic Research Unit, UK WP5.1 team: KNMI, MeteoSwiss, Oxford.

RT5, WP5.2 : Evaluation of processes and phenomena Objectives : Analyse the capability of the models to reproduce and predict the major modes of variations.

Judith Curry James Belanger Mark Jelinek Violeta Toma Peter Webster 1

1 An Assessment of the CFS real-time forecasts for Wanqiu Wang, Mingyue Chen, and Arun Kumar CPC/NCEP/NOAA.

1 FINANCE, ADMIN & DELIVERABLES UERRA GA3, Toulouse 1-3 February 2016 Madeleine Benderyd, SMHI – UERRA Financial Manager UERRA GA3: 1-3 February 2016,

© Crown copyright 2007 Forecasting weeks to months ahead Dr. Alberto Arribas Monthly-to-Decadal area, Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter, April 2014.

Climate Mission Outcome A predictive understanding of the global climate system on time scales of weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient.

Cloud, radiation, and precipitation changes with dynamic regime: An observational analysis and model evaluation study PI: George Tselioudis Co-PI: Chris.

Using S2D data to predict spring flood volumes in selected Swedish rivers Kean Foster.

GPC-Montreal - Status Report - March 2014

Teleconnections in MINERVA experiments

Met Office GPC Adam Scaife Head of Monthly to Decadal Prediction Met Office © Crown copyright Met Office.

Predictability of the NAO? Adam Scaife

Predictability assessment of climate predictions within the context

(WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop) Applied Meteorology Group

An Integrated Project under the 6th Framework Programme of the EU

Deterministic (HRES) and ensemble (ENS) verification scores

Presentation transcript:

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 RT5: Evaluation Albert Klein Tank & Antonio Navarra / Elisa Manzini

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 RT5: Evaluation Albert Klein Tank & Antonio Navarra / Elisa Manzini Objective:to perform a comprehensive and independent evaluation of the performance of the ensemble simulation/prediction system against observations/analyses

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 Achievements All RT5 deliverables and milestones are met

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 Achievements All RT5 deliverables and milestones are met

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 Evaluation of global models used in multidecadal simulations (RT2a stream 1) –D5.5:systematic biases in the mean climate and seasonal cycle (INGV, UREADMM, IPSL) –D5.14:impact of model resolution on simulation of ENSO (INGV) –D5.16:representation of cloud regimes in the tropics (IPSL) –D5.17:representation of monsoon and its teleconnection (IPSL) Achievements global and multidecadal

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 Evaluation of forecast quality with global models in s2d simulations (RT2a stream 1) –D5.3:probabilistic forecasts of rare extreme events, incl. R-software (ECMWF, UREADMM) –D5.4:verification methods for forecasts of extreme events (UREADMM), plus websystem (KNMI) –D5.7:skill in the seasonal prediction of NAO and PNA (ECMWF) –D5.6:decadal forecast quality in the Indo-Pacific sector, discussion document (INGV, IPSL) Achievements global and multidecadal global and s2d

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 Evaluation of regional models used in multidecadal simulations, with focus on extremes (RT2b and RT3) –D5.8:daily station dataset for gridding (KNMI, MeteoSwiss) –D5.9:analysis of possible gridding methods (UOXFDC, CRU) –D5.2:decadal scale variations of precipitation extremes in ERA40 and Alpine observations (ETH) Achievements global and multidecadal global and s2d regional and multidecadal

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 Evaluation of impact models (RT6) –D5.10:workshop “Lessons learned from seasonal forecasting: health protection” (UNILIV, IRI) Achievements global and multidecadal global and s2d regional and multidecadal impact models

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 Linkages between the 4 clusters (and gaps) were discussed at Monday’s RT5 meeting Coherent evaluation strategy will be outlined in the next PAR and soon available from the updated RT5-website Next few example diagrams: Achievements global and multidecadal global and s2d regional and multidecadal impact models

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 global and multidecadal D5.5: INGV, UREADMM, IPSL JFM mean precip,

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 global and multidecadal D5.5: INGV, UREADMM, IPSL JFM sd of precip,

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 global and s2d D5.7: ECMWF 1-month lead NAO (DJF) hindcasts

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 regional and multidecadal D5.2: ETH Bias correction of ERA40 precip in 3 Alpine regions,

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 impact models UNILIV Rules based Malaria model run with ERA40 ( )

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 Plans, 1 of 2 8 deliverables and 4 milestones for RT5 in next 18 months Will see the start of more regional work when gridded observational dataset for Europe and RCM simulations become available Stress that good access to all data is essential !

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 Plans, 2 of 2 Extremes discussion: mismatch between high-impact extremes and statistically defined extremes Participate in upcoming meetings: –joint RT4/5/8 extremes workshop Riederalp, 29 Jan- 2 Feb, 2007 –3rd WGNE workshop on systematic errors in climate and NWP models, San Francisco, Feb 12-16, 2007 –joint RT4/5/CFMIP meeting, Paris, Apr 11-13, 2007 –EGU, Vienna, Apr –…more on ENSEMBLES website…