1 2005 Results Presentation to the Investment Analysts’ Society of Southern Africa 2 March 2006 www.liberty.co.za.

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Presentation transcript:

Results Presentation to the Investment Analysts’ Society of Southern Africa 2 March

2 Agenda What we said What we’ve done Financial and operating results Focus areas Questions

3 What we said … Capital management continues Compliance, IFRS … Address PFA issues... people... service … costs

4 What we said … Operational restructuring and CAHL integration continues Marketing and Distribution restructuring ­Products ­Channels ­Project Khula continues Group professional services restructuring and integration … Hug our customers!

5 What we’ve done … Capital management Bought CAHL utilising some excess capital First life company in SA to issue capital qualifying bond Sold significant portion of SAB - no remaining concentration risks Sale of Prefsure and Hightree Ermitage sale in progress New dividend policy implemented Capital reduction

6 What we’ve done … PFA issues Statement of Intent signed with National Treasury What the industry agreed to ­Minimum standards applied to early termination values ­Retrospective and prospective Treasury’s promises ­New commission regulations ­Jurisdictional clarity (PFA, FSOS Ombudsman, LTI Ombudsman) ­Recognition of application of Long-Term Insurance Act to RA policies ­Resolution of other regulatory matters

7 What we’ve done … PFA issues All business with savings as the primary purpose, is included ­RA’s (with and without life cover) ­Endowments ­Whole of life (where savings is primary purpose) ­Reversionary bonus business Policies intended primarily to provide risk benefits, are excluded ­Pure risk products (eg Lifestyle Protector) ­Whole life business not included A number of outstanding practicalities still to be finalised Full provision for Statement of Intent (SOI) made at 31 December 2005

8 What we’ve done … Operational restructuring Overview of new structure given at the interim results Updated restructuring and integration progress given in November 2005 ­Marketing and Distribution ­Operations ­Group Professional Services ­Asset Management (Stanlib and Properties)

9 What we’ve done … Operational restructuring Choice of IT platform finalised and project started Life licenses under review Recap of numbers ­Restructuring and integration costs of R500m over 3-4 years ­Anticipated cost reduction of R300m pa by 2008 ­Estimated after tax net benefit of approximately R1bn Restructuring and integration on track

10 What we’ve done … Products New risk product (Lifestyle Protector) performing well Sought more clarity on PFA rulings before launching new savings products New long term savings product launch planned for later this month ­Policyholder value proposition ­Internal culture ‘we should only sell a product that we would be happy to sell to our mothers!’ Increased advertising awareness of real benefits of RA’s

11 What we’ve done … Distribution Agency restructured Continued focus on broker relationships Entry level market ­Khula performance ­CAHL Commercial/Khula agents consolidated Individual life bancassurance model still delivering Awaiting finalisation of the commission proposal SAFSIA Awards

12 Deon de Klerk

13 Operational features – 2005/2004 Rm % Total new business Indexed new business Value of new business pre SOI costs New business margin pre SOI costs23%24% Net cash inflows from insurance operations Includes CAHL numbers for 9 months since acquisition 2. Includes CAHL numbers for 9 months for comparability where appropriate 3. Excludes STANLIB and Ermitage net cash inflows

14 Impact of SOI Value of new business margins reduced to 20% Rm Net asset value(406) Headline earnings(321) Goodwill impairment(85) Value of in-force(193) Embedded value(599)

15 Life insurance operations New business premiums Total R16 673m (+21%) Individual life R13 721m (+18%) Corporate benefits R2 952m (+39%) Indexed new business premiums Total R4 870m (+12%) Individual life R4 004m (+10%) Corporate benefits R866m (+26%) CorporateIndividual Inc CAHL 2005 Inc CAHL Inc CAHL 2005 Inc CAHL Rm Rm

16 Life insurance operations Embedded value of new business* Total R882m (+8%) Individual life R845m (+3%) Corporate benefits increased from -R4m to +R37m New business EV margins Total = 23%* → 20% after SOI Individual life = 25%* → 23% after SOI Corporate benefits = 6%* → 6% unchanged *Before SOI impact CorporateIndividual Rm Inc CAHL Inc CAHL -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

17 New business EV margins – PV of premiums basis Rm After SOI 2005 Before SOI Value of new business * PV of future expected premiums Value of new business as a % of PV of future expected premiums 3,0%3,3%3,4% * As reported

18 Life insurance operations Net cash flows from insurance operations (excluding Stanlib & Ermitage) Total R5 726m (+80%) Individual life R4 948m (+4%) Corporate benefits R778m (+149%) Inc CAHL 2004Inc CAHL Rm CorporateIndividual

19 Source: LOA Life insurance operations New business market share Year ended 31 December 2003 Year ended 31 December 2000 Year ended 31 December 2002 Year ended 31 December 2004 Year ended 31 December months ended 30 September 2005 Recurring IndividualSingle Individual 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 19,6% 22,8% 23,6% 25,3% 26,0% 25,4% 15,5% 16,5% 20,3% 24,5% 27,2% 30,6%

20 Net cash inflows of R13,3bn (R15,3bn in 2004) Earnings before tax of R407m up 46% Other operations STANLIB: assets under management and funds under administration Rbn % Life funds Segregated funds Unit trusts Structured products and other Total AUM and FUA Money market as % of total12%16%

21 Financial results – 2005/2004 Rm2005 Restated 2004% BEE normalised headline earnings per share before IFRS & SOI (cents) 665,4465,3+43 BEE normalised embedded value per share before SOI (Rand) 75,5663,72+19 Statutory capital adequacy requirement (times covered) 2,02,5

22 BEE normalised headline earnings before IFRS and SOI Rm2005 Restated 2004% Insurance operations Per financial statements IFRS adjustments45(14)>100 SOI provisions321-n/a Shareholders’ funds Per financial statements899409>100 IFRS adjustments(448)16<100 BEE funding8831>100 BEE normalised earnings before IFRS & SOI Per share (cents)665,4465,3+43

23 Operating profit from life insurance operations – major influencing factors Inclusion of CAHL for 9 months Shareholders’ 10% participation and higher asset base Risk profits Investment guarantee reserve Expenses ­Costs per policy ­Non-recurring expenses

24 Year-to-date return 2004 Gross investment returns Year-to-date return 2005Actuarial assumption 2005 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 9,7%

25 Expenses Rm2005* Restated 2004*% Total Liberty Group expenses IFRS 2 adjustments – share based payments (40)(14)>100 Mutual funds on consolidation(137)(116)+18 Project Khula costs(27)(6)>100 VIF amortisation(120)(18)>100 Restructuring, integration and other non- recurring costs (199)(137)+45 Normalised group expenses * CAHL costs included for 9 months in 2004 and 2005

26 Restructuring, integration and other non-recurring expenses Rm ActualEstimated Total Retrenchments and other staff costs Systems and process costs Infrastructure and office relocation costs Consolidation of Marketing & Distribution integration Total Incurred to date(184) Expenses still to be incurred316 Other non-recurring expenses of R36m

27 Maintenance costs per policy %Assumption Individual annual maintenance costs per policy Liberty LifeR258R248+4,0+4,25 Liberty ActiveR139R154-9,7+4,25 CAHL ComplexR221R ,5 2 +4,25 CAHL Simple 3 R98R ,0 2 +4,25 1. For the year ended 31 March Annualised 3. Consolidation of policies into 1 policy during 2005 impacted per policy statistics

28 Embedded value Rm2005 Restated 2004% Shareholders’ funds – statutory basis Fair value adjustments Fair value of share options(245)(191)-28 Net value of in-force business Embedded value Embedded value per share (Rand)75,9665,07+17 BEE normalised embedded value per share before SOI (Rand) 75,5663,72+19

29 Capital adequacy cover 2005 Restated 2004 Statutory capital adequacy requirement (Rm) Statutory capital (Rm) Times covered2,02,5 Times covered without BEE impairment2,42,9

30 Capital reduction Target CAR cover of 1,7 times Excess capital of approximately R1bn Capital reduction of R1bn or 360 cents per share Subject to shareholder and regulatory approval

31 At 2004 year end new dividend policy established Dividend growth in line with current estimated medium term growth in embedded value (after normal dividends) Dividend Cents per share % Interim Final Total Annual350 Base for future dividend declarations325 Capital reduction impact25

32 Bruce Hemphill

33 Addressing market concerns … Insurance skills Integration and restructuring ­Good progress made in 2005 ­CAHL staff relocated to Liberty ­One team, good mix of CAHL and Liberty Continuity ­Group Executive ­Rex Tomlinson/Bruce Hemphill on Exco for 24 months

34 Liberty priorities for the next 12 months Customers Customer service Moral high ground Leading product innovators Real value to policyholders

35 Liberty priorities for the next 12 months Systems and processes Single IT platform Efficient business model Scalable

36 Liberty priorities for the next 12 months People Our people are the critical ingredient Positive energy Team environment Enjoyable workplace

37 Questions Panel Myles RuckChief Executive Bruce HemphillChief Executive Designate Andrew Lonmon-DavisStatutory Actuary Deon de KlerkChief Financial Officer

38 Appendices

39 Operating profit from shareholders’ funds Rm2005Restated 2004% Financial services operations Listed investments Disposal groups held for sale Other investments319 0 Shareholders’ management expenses(163)(128)+27 Shareholders’ tax(36)(94)-62 Investment gains net of CGT491-n/a Operating profit post IFRS adjustments

40 Embedded value (EV) reconciliation and ROEV build up 2005 Yr Rm 2005 ROEV Build Up (%) Investment return on shareholders funds*1 4168,9 Expected return on life business9385,9 Investment experience1 2928,2 Other experience(23)-0,1 Operating assumption changes600,4 Changes in economic assumptions4572,9 Value of in-force acquired1671,1 Change in modeling(603)-3,8 New business8825,6 Exchange rate movements460,3 EV Profit before Abnormal items ,4 Less Abnormal Implementation of minimum values for savings products(599)-3,8 Future non-recurring costs(216)-1,4 Change in company tax rate118+0,8 Write off of CAHL goodwill(397)-2,5 EV Profit ,5 *Net of allowance for fair value of options of -R54m

41 Embedded value (EV) reconciliation – 1H05 vs 2H05 2H05 Rm 1H05 Rm 2005 Yr Rm Investment return on shareholders funds* Expected return on life business Investment experience Other experience126(149)(23) Operating assumption changes311(251)60 Changes in economic assumptions Value of in-force acquired167- Change in modeling(587)(16)(603) New business Exchange rate movements46- EV Profit before Abnormal items Less Abnormal Implementation of minimum values for savings products(599)- Future non-recurring expenses(216)- Change in company tax rate-118 Write off of CAHL goodwill(85)(312)(397) EV Profit *Net of allowance for fair value of options of –R101m in 2H05 (1H05 R47m) Annualised ROEV for 2H05 is 28% (1H05 16%)

42 IFRS NAV vs Statutory NAV Rm2005Restated 2004 Shareholders’ funds – published basis CAR requirements of subsidiaries(1 212)(376) Debt and preference shares Differences between statutory and published valuation methodologies(1 429)(430) IFRS adjustments-(32) Inadmissible assets(1 259)(271) Shareholders’ funds – statutory basis

43 Stanlib detailed earnings analysis Rm % Change Net fee income Investment and other income67 - Total income Operating expenses Income before tax Normal tax Income after tax Preference dividends Earnings Cost to income ratio55%64%

44 Net cash inflows of US$69m Headline earnings of £6,67m (R77m) up 138% Ermitage - assets under management US$m % Hedge funds Long-only funds Money funds Total AUM Third party funds as % of total funds41%

45 Financial services and subsidiaries *The value of the IEB & CAHL business is included in the group's estimates of the VIF **Restated for IFRS RmDecember 2005December 2004** Fair Value Adjustment Tangible NAV Goodwill net of amortis- ation Fair Value Uplift Total Carrying value in EV excl VIF % Change Tangible NAV Goodwill net of amortis- ation Fair Value Uplift Total Carrying value in EV excl VIF Liberty Group Properties Liberty Ermitage Jersey Stanlib Prefsure Carrying value of VIF business acquired from IEB 960(96)0*n/a1090(109)0* Carrying value of VIF business acquired from CAHL 923(923)0*n/a

46 New business excluding contractual increases - ex CAHL Recurring PremiumsSingle PremiumsTotal Premiums Rm % Change Individual Corporate Total new business % Change Indexed new business Indexed Individual new business Indexed Corporate new business

47 Total premiums Recurring PremiumsSingle PremiumsTotal Premiums Rm Inc CAHL 2005 Inc CAHL 2004 Inc CAHL 2005 Inc CAHL 2004 Inc CAHL 2005 Inc CAHL 2004 % Change Individual Corporate Total premiums % Change Indexed total business Indexed Individual total business Indexed Corporate total business

48 New business EV analysis - ex CAHL Indexed new business of CAHL for EV purposes R201m (Recurring R170m, single R31m) CAHL NB embedded value of R69m CAHL NB embedded value and volumes for 9 months only Rm2005 (After SOI)2005 (Before SOI)2004% Change Indexed Individual new business Indexed Group new business Indexed new business Individual NB EV Group NB EV77-4>100 Total NB EV ,2 NB Individual Margin22%25%28%-3 NB Group Margin1% -1%+2 Total Margin19%22%24%-2

49 Effect of the BEE transaction on headline earnings Rm % Change Earnings before IFRS Costs of transaction included in headline earnings net of tax-18 Preference shares accrued Headline earnings including preference dividends before IFRS Weighted average number of shares in issue (millions)251,8271,9 Reinstatement of weighted average number of shares reduced for BEE transaction (millions) 2 25,83,78 Weighted average number of shares after reinstatement of the transaction shares (millions) 277,6275,7 BEE normalised headline earnings per share (cents)549,8465, As a consequence of utilising Liberty Life’s own cash flows (in the form of ordinary dividends paid) to service the empowerment transaction financing structure (in the form of dividends on preference shares), the dividends received on the empowerment preference shares will be accounted for directly in reserves, thereby offsetting the dividends so received against the ordinary dividends paid by the company 2. Due to the fact that the Black Economic Empowerment transaction is effectively accounted for as a share buy back (until such time that all funding is repaid), the weighted average number of shares in issue for 2004 has been reduced by 25,8million shares. The transaction was implemented on 8 November 2004

50 Effect of the BEE transaction on EV per share 1. Due to the fact that the Black Economic Empowerment transaction is effectively accounted for as a share buy back (until such time that all funding is repaid), the total number of shares has been reduced by shares at 31 December 2005 and 31 December 2004 Rm % Change EV per EV statement Costs of transaction included in headline earnings net of tax & debited against reserves Reinstatement of impaired empowerment preference shares1 251 Preference dividends accrued-13 Embedded value before impairment Total number of shares in issue (millions)252,1250,8 Reinstatement of number of shares reduced for BEE transaction (millions) 1 25,8 Total number of shares after reinstatement of the transaction shares (millions) 277,9276,6 BEE normalised EV per share (Rand)73,4163,72+15

51 Claims & policyholder benefits - Liberty ex CAHL Group Rm % Change Individual Death & disability Policy maturity claims Policy surrender claims Annuity payments Group Death & disability Scheme terminations Scheme member withdrawals Annuity payments Investment only terminations and withdrawals Total claims & policyholder benefits

52 New business detailed analysis - Rm New BusinessRecurring PremiumsSingle PremiumsTotal PremiumsTotal % Change Inc CAHL Ex CAHL Individual %17% Corporate %38% Total %20% % Change8%25%21% % Change Ex CAHL13%28%24% Indexed new business Includes premium escalations

53 Net cash flows detailed analysis - Rm Net cash flowsIndividual businessCorporate businessTotal PremiumsTotal % Change Inc CAHL Ex CAHL Net Premiums %20% Net claims and benefits %7% Net cash flows (1 586) %77% % Change11%149%80% % Change Ex CAHL9%125%77%

54 New business by distribution channel Recurring PremiumsSingle PremiumsTotal Premiums Rm Individual Broker Bancassurance Agency Franchise & other Corporate Broker Bancassurance Agency Franchise & other Total new business

55 CAR Cover - Historical analysis ,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 0,5 1,5 2,5 3,5 Since December 2004, CAR cover is shown as statutory CAR cover Times covered Incl BEETimes covered

56 After the capital reduction (ACR) 60% of the group’s EV will be represented by the value of in-force EV - Historical analysis VIFNAV Dec 2001Dec 2002Dec 2003Dec 2004Dec 2005Dec 2005 (ACR)

57 Headcount analysis 61 administration staff at project Khula at 30 March 2005 CAHL administration staff of 636 included at 30 June 2005 Liberty Incl CAHLLiberty excl CAHL IEB Dec 2003Mar 2004Jun 20004Sep 2004Dec 2004Mar 2005Jun 2005Sep 2005Dec

Results Presentation to the Investment Analysts’ Society of Southern Africa 2 March