CHAPTER 8 Elections & Campaigns

Running for Federal Office Over 90% re-election rate in the House and Senate. Over 90% re-election rate in the House and Senate. House races are less contested than Senate races. House races are less contested than Senate races. Senators run in a statewide election, House run in Districts. Senators run in a statewide election, House run in Districts. Senators run every six years, Congressmen run every two years but have unlimited terms. Senators run every six years, Congressmen run every two years but have unlimited terms. Coattail effect – when the president is strong, members of his party are voted for. Coattail effect – when the president is strong, members of his party are voted for. More frequently in Congress and in Senate races (stronger in presidential election years)

WHY INCUMBENTS WIN? Name recognition Name recognition Constituent service Constituent service Easier to raise money Easier to raise money Assignments on committees that serve their constituents Assignments on committees that serve their constituents Free Press Free Press Take credit for anything positive that has happened. Blame Washington (or prez) for anything bad that has occurred. Take credit for anything positive that has happened. Blame Washington (or prez) for anything bad that has occurred. FRANKING PRIVILEGE FRANKING PRIVILEGE

CAMPAIGNS Campaigns are extremely expensive. Campaigns are extremely expensive. Most campaigns are now concentrated on the media. Most campaigns are now concentrated on the media. Negative ads work, that’s why they use them. Negative ads work, that’s why they use them.

CAMPAIGNS Incumbents are rarely challenged in a primary election. Incumbents are rarely challenged in a primary election. A primary election is an election to nominate a candidate for office, has a low voter turnout. A primary election is an election to nominate a candidate for office, has a low voter turnout.

Types of Primaries Closed primaries are most common, you must belong to a party to participate in primary. Closed primaries are most common, you must belong to a party to participate in primary. Open primaries allow any registered voter to participate. Open primaries allow any registered voter to participate. Blanket primaries allow all candidates, no matter what party, on one ballot, recently ruled unconstitutional. Blanket primaries allow all candidates, no matter what party, on one ballot, recently ruled unconstitutional.

Most important thing to campaign is name recognition, most get known to be chosen. Most important thing to campaign is name recognition, most get known to be chosen. Open seat is an election where there is no incumbent. Parties stay out of primary until a winner is chosen, then they put their support fully behind the nominee. Open seat is an election where there is no incumbent. Parties stay out of primary until a winner is chosen, then they put their support fully behind the nominee.

MIDTERM ELECTIONS Presidential races are much more competitive than House races, the winning margins are more narrow. Presidential races are much more competitive than House races, the winning margins are more narrow. Midterm Election is an election that occurs every two years in a non- presidential election year. Midterm Election is an election that occurs every two years in a non- presidential election year. Turnout much lower Turnout much lower All Congressmen up for reelection (435 seats) All Congressmen up for reelection (435 seats) 1/3 of Senators up for reelection 1/3 of Senators up for reelection President coattails not as great President coattails not as great

Congressional Breakdown Each state has 2 Senators Each state has 2 Senators House seats set at 435 House seats set at 435 Number per state determined by population Number per state determined by population Dispersion changes every 10 years with National Census. Dispersion changes every 10 years with National Census. Florida has enjoyed the greatest jump in representation due to the last 2 counts. Florida has enjoyed the greatest jump in representation due to the last 2 counts.

DRAWING DISTRICTS The State Legislature is responsible for redrawing the district lines if the census causes a state to gain or lose a seat in the House. The State Legislature is responsible for redrawing the district lines if the census causes a state to gain or lose a seat in the House. Gerrymandering – boundaries drawn to favor one party rather than another resulting in odd-shaped districts. This is unconstitutional. Gerrymandering – boundaries drawn to favor one party rather than another resulting in odd-shaped districts. This is unconstitutional. Malapportionment- districts are drawn w/ very different populations. Illegal. Baker v Carr (1962) Malapportionment- districts are drawn w/ very different populations. Illegal. Baker v Carr (1962)

Nominating a President 1 st Iowa Caucus – Party leaders meet to select candidate 1 st Iowa Caucus – Party leaders meet to select candidate Caucus may pick more ideological candidates. Caucus may pick more ideological candidates. 2 nd New Hampshire Primary – Voters choose favorite candidate 2 nd New Hampshire Primary – Voters choose favorite candidate Almost all states have primaries Almost all states have primaries

PARTY CONVENTION Party convention is where the candidate is officially nominated as presidential candidate for party. Party convention is where the candidate is officially nominated as presidential candidate for party. Every 4 years receive delegates to make it official. Every 4 years receive delegates to make it official. National chair- controls party convention. National chair- controls party convention. Each convention sets party platform for upcoming four years. Each convention sets party platform for upcoming four years.

Campaigns Campaign is dominated by television. Campaign is dominated by television. Debates really don’t make a difference unless a candidate really screws up. Debates really don’t make a difference unless a candidate really screws up. This is referred to as the gaffe problem This is referred to as the gaffe problem

Electoral College Winner take all in each state – you receive more votes in a state, you win all the electoral votes for that state. Winner take all in each state – you receive more votes in a state, you win all the electoral votes for that state. You need a majority of electoral votes to win the presidency. You need a majority of electoral votes to win the presidency. Total electoral votes is 538, but 270 would be the majority. Total electoral votes is 538, but 270 would be the majority. The electoral college vote makes the margin of victory seem larger than it really is. The electoral college vote makes the margin of victory seem larger than it really is.

No Electoral Winner 12 th Amendment – creates separate elections for the president and vice president. 12 th Amendment – creates separate elections for the president and vice president. If no candidate wins 270 votes If no candidate wins 270 votes Presidential race goes to House, each state gets a vote, 26 votes wins. Presidential race goes to House, each state gets a vote, 26 votes wins. Vice President races goes to Senate, each senator gets a vote, 51 votes wins. Vice President races goes to Senate, each senator gets a vote, 51 votes wins.

Money in Electoral Campaigns President gets money from private and public funds. President gets money from private and public funds. Congress gets private money. Congress gets private money. Federal restrictions: Federal restrictions: $2000 limit for individual contributions $2000 limit for individual contributions $5000 limit for PACs $5000 limit for PACs

Political Action Committees (PACS) PAC Requirements PAC Requirements 1) At least 50 voluntary members 1) At least 50 voluntary members 2) Give to at least 5 federal candidates 2) Give to at least 5 federal candidates 3) limited to $5000 per election per candidate. 3) limited to $5000 per election per candidate.

CAMPAIGN FINANCE REFORM 1974 FECA set limits on donations by individuals and groups 1974 FECA set limits on donations by individuals and groups PACs were created to circumvent this act PACs were created to circumvent this act 2000 Bipartisan campaign Reform Act 2000 Bipartisan campaign Reform Act Banned soft money Banned soft money *unlimited amounts of money that can be given to a political party so long as that candidate is not named. Sharply restricted independent expenditures- corporations, unions and other groups can’t advertise referring to a candidate by name 30 days before a primary and 60 days before a general election.

WHO WINS AND WHY The most recognized with the most money raised and is an incumbent wins. The most recognized with the most money raised and is an incumbent wins. Party affiliation still #1 reason why you vote for someone. Party affiliation still #1 reason why you vote for someone. Democrats have larger numbers, should win, but Republicans have higher turnout and get more independent voters. Democrats have larger numbers, should win, but Republicans have higher turnout and get more independent voters.

Who Wins and Why? Party Party State of the Economy State of the Economy Candidate character Candidate character Incumbency Incumbency

WHO DECIDES ELECTIONS? Party ID still #1 Party ID still #1 Democrats have more registered voters Democrats have more registered voters Republicans have higher turnout. Republicans have higher turnout. GOP does better among independents GOP does better among independents People change parties when their interests change. People change parties when their interests change.

Prospective Voting prospective voters- used by very few voters prospective voters- used by very few voters These voters know the issues and vote accordingly. These voters know the issues and vote accordingly. Most common among activists and special interest groups. Most common among activists and special interest groups.

Retrospective Voting Practiced by most voters. Practiced by most voters. Decides most elections. Decides most elections. Judge the incumbent’s performance and vote accordingly. Judge the incumbent’s performance and vote accordingly. Usually helps the incumbent…unless economy has gotten worse. Usually helps the incumbent…unless economy has gotten worse. Midterm elections: voters turn against president’s party. Midterm elections: voters turn against president’s party.

The campaign Campaigns do make a difference. Campaigns do make a difference. They let voters see how candidates handle and apply pressure. They let voters see how candidates handle and apply pressure. They let voters judge candidates’ character and core values. They let voters judge candidates’ character and core values. Campaigns emphasize themes over details. Campaigns emphasize themes over details.

Finding a winning coalition Candidate/Party goal is to appeal to as many citizens as possible. Candidate/Party goal is to appeal to as many citizens as possible. Then you must get those voters to turnout and be loyal to you and your party. Then you must get those voters to turnout and be loyal to you and your party.

Democratic Coalition Blacks most loyal. Blacks most loyal. Jews slipping in recent years. Jews slipping in recent years. Hispanics are mixed between parties. Hispanics are mixed between parties. Catholics, southerners, and union members are wavering with their loyalty. Catholics, southerners, and union members are wavering with their loyalty.

Republican Coalition Party of business and professional people who are very loyal. Party of business and professional people who are very loyal. Farmers are often Republican, but are changeable. Farmers are often Republican, but are changeable.

What decides elections? 1) strength of economy. 1) strength of economy. 2) popularity of candidate. 2) popularity of candidate. 3) party loyalty and ideology. 3) party loyalty and ideology. In Congressional campaigns: In Congressional campaigns: District lines and who is included and excluded in the district. District lines and who is included and excluded in the district.

Do elections really make a difference? Policies do change as a result of electoral outcomes. Policies do change as a result of electoral outcomes. However, separation of powers and checks-and-balances limits the impact of any single office or election. However, separation of powers and checks-and-balances limits the impact of any single office or election.