WWRP THORPEX Alan Dickinson Chair THORPEX ICSC and David Burridge THORPEX IPO

WWRP

THORPEX Priorities  Global-to-regional influences on the evolution and predictability of weather systems  Global observing-system design and demonstration  Targeting and assimilation of observations  Societal, economic, and environmental benefits of improved forecasts

WWRP IPO/ICSC/EC Regional Committees Africa Asia Europe North America Southern Hemisphere Predictability and Dynamical Processes Working Group PDP WG Data Assimilation and Observing Strategies Working Group DAOS WG Global Interactive Forecasting System – THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble Working Group GIFS-TIGGE WG THORPEX Organisational Structure

WWRP Collaboration between the PDP Working Group and the WGNE  The key area for collaboration was seen as model error and model development and the ICSC and the WGNE agreed that there should cross-representation between the PDP Working Group and the WGNE.  To this end, Thomas Jung would represent the PDP Working Group on the WGNE and Andy Brown would represent the WGNE on the PDP Working Group.  One of the first results of this collaboration was the joint organisation of the PDP/WGNE Workshop on Model Errors (7-9 July, 2010).

WWRP CASXV on WWRP-THORPEX ………… agreed that THORPEX has contributed substantively to the advancement of Members needs and fostered a tremendous sense of partnership and collaboration around the world particularly through the following activities:  Completion of three major field experiments, A-TREC, E- TREC and T-PARC with its two experimental phases  Activities to address regional prediction needs, such as the assessment of targeted observations for extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, THORPEX Africa, and THORPEX involvement in the assessment of the forecast impacts of additional observations over Africa taken as part of the AMMA Project  The development and execution of the IPY-THORPEX cluster of projects focused on advancing numerical weather prediction for polar regions;  The development of the TIGGE database as a major community resource with model  Initiation of the Year Of Tropical Convection (YOTC) Project

WWRP IMPACT OF TARGETED OBSERVATIONS  There is a consensus that extra-tropical targeted data are about 2-3 times more valuable than the same number of observations deployed randomly.  Targeted observations aimed at improving forecasts of tropical cyclone track have provided demonstrable positive impact. The impact of targeted observations aimed at improving forecasts of extra-tropical storms is less clear to date.  Sharan Majumdar to prepare a draft of the paper during the next few months - The target should be for a definitive draft agreed by the Working Group for the next ICSC meeting..

WWRP T-NAWDEX  THORPEX – North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment  Proposed at European THORPEX meeting by PDP Working Group in 2006  Strong interest from UK, France, Germany, Switzerland, Norway, Canada, USA,...  Science focus on diabatic effects on North Atlantic weather systems (dynamics and predictive skill)  Germany: HALO THORPEX Demo Mission (Dörnbrack et al.)  UK: project DIAMET (Vaughan, Methven, Parker, Renfrew et al.)  Germany: PANDOWAE research group (Jones et al.)  Switzerland: ETH contribution (Wernli et al.)

WWRP TIGGE A key component of THORPEX: a World Weather Research Programme to accelerate the improvements in the accuracy of 1- day to 2-week high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of humanity The TIGGE project has developed a database of global ensemble forecasts collected in near real-time. Objectives:  Enhance collaboration on ensemble prediction, both internationally and between operational centres & universities.  Facilitate research on ensemble prediction methods, especially methods to combine ensembles and to correct systematic errors  Enable evolution towards a prototype operational system, the “Global Interactive Forecast System”

WWRP

Better understanding of the intense events: processes and contribution to the trend HYMEX: Main Scientific Topics

WWRP THORPEX Working Groups (Recent meetings) Since 31 January 2010, the three THORPEX Working Groups have met:  GIFS TIGGE Working Group Eighth Meeting; WMO, Geneva (22-24 February 2010)  THORPEX ICSC PDP Working Group Third Meeting; ETH, Zurich (5-7 July 2010) – this meeting was followed by a Workshop on “Diagnosis of Model Errors” (7-9 July 2010)  THORPEX ICSC DAOS Working Group Third Meeting; University of Québec at Montréal (UQAM) Montréal (8-9 July 2010)

WWRP GEO THORPEX continues to support the development of the weather element of the GEOSS. There are three main areas of activity  TIGGE and the development of a Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS) (WE-06-03)  THORPEX Africa (WE-09-01b)  Towards Enhanced Climate, Weather, Water and Environmental Prediction (CL-09-01a); in this Task the main activity at present is YOTC; however, it is hoped that the planned sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction and polar projects will be included in due course. These three Tasks represent the most significant GEO weather activities. Efforts continue to be made working through GEO to improve funding levels and resources for these initiatives. A consortium of European organisations is responding to an European Union FP7 Call to further development of the TIGGE and the GEOSS Common Infrastructure (GCI).

WWRP The IPY-THORPEX Cluster 10 individual projects (see WMO Bulletin Oct. 2007) The objectives of the IPY-THORPEX Cluster were:  Explore use of satellite data and optimised observations to improve high impact weather forecasts  Better understand physical/dynamical processes in polar regions  Achieve a better understanding of small scale weather phenomena  Utilise improved forecasts to the benefit of society, the economy and the environment

WWRP The International Project Concordiasi

WWRP Objectives of Concordiasi  To improve the assimilation of satellite data over the southern polar region, with an emphasis on the data provided by the new IASI sounder.  To improve understanding of the stratospheric ozone budget through examination of the interaction of ozone observations at flight level and stratospheric clouds, together with the improved characterization of the polar vortex.  To evaluate the impact of better analyses and forecasts on ozone profile simulations in chemical transport models.  To evaluate the impact of the large scale improvements on local analyses and forecasts at Concordia.  To provide recommendations on the design of the global observing system over the southern polar region by determining the extent to which additional observations over Antarctica can improve the prediction of high impact weather over lower latitudes.

WWRP New projects Polar Prediction project – “The Commission concurred with the Executive Council Panel of Experts on Polar Observations, Research and Services on the requirement for effective collaboration and therefore recommended that any efforts to develop a future prediction system include outcomes from the IPY-THORPEX cluster of projects and from the planned THORPEX Legacy Project” Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction – “….the Commission requested the JSCs of the WWRP and the WCRP and also the THORPEX ICSC to set up an appropriate collaborative structure to carry out an international research initiative on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting. It recommended that this is closely coordinated with the present existing CBS infrastructure for long-range forecasting (with centres producing long-range forecasts and regional climate centres) and with the future developments in WMO climate service delivery and the Global Framework for Climate Services called for in the High-Level Declaration of WCC-3.”

WWRP Workshop “Improvement of Weather and Environmental Prediction in Polar Regions” (6 to 8 October 2010, Met No, Oslo, Norway) The outcome of this workshop was the establishment of a basis for an IPY legacy project which is intended to provide a framework for cooperative international research and development efforts to improve high impact weather, climate, and environmental prediction capabilities for the Polar Regions. Workshop “Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction” (1 to 3 December 2010, Met Office, Exeter, UK) The main goals of this Workshop was to establish current capabilities in sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction, to identify high-priority research topics and demonstration projects and to develop recommendations for the establishment of an international research project.

WWRP MID-TERM REVIEW  The THORPEX Working Groups and Regional Committees have been asked to submit short summaries of recent achievements, current challenges and future plans.  The IPO will then prepare a summary paper for review by the THORPEX community and eventually the ICSC and the WWRP

WWRP Future emphasis  Basic issues of predictability and key dynamical processes  The required initial conditions and implied observational coverage  Strategies for observations targeting in critical situations  Tackling the problem issues in data assimilation especially at high resolution  Handling of the tropics particularly organised convection, tropical cyclones and extra-tropical transition and interactions  Polar weather  Seamless prediction of weather and climate from days to weeks and seasons