August 20, 2015 Transportation Analysis Meeting 2015 Update Tampa Bay Region Roberto O. Miquel, AICP

Agenda  Introductions  SRESP Transportation Element Objectives  Clearance Time Definitions  Changes to Study  Analysis Results  Questions/Comments 2

Transportation Objectives  Satisfy State Requirements  Standardized definitions for clearance times  Statewide Consistency  All RPC regions use same transportation methodology  Single or Multi-Region Analysis  Each RPC has ability to conduct own analysis  Graphic User Interface  Allows users ability to easily create and run evacuation scenarios 3

Clearance Time Definitions  Clearance Time, To Shelter  Clearance Time, In-County  Clearance Time, Out-of-County  Regional Clearance Time 4

1. Clearance Time, To Shelter  The time necessary to safely evacuate vulnerable residents and visitors to a “point of safety” within the county based on a specific hazard, behavioral assumptions and evacuation scenario. Calculated from the point in time when the evacuation order is given to the point in time when the last vehicle reaches a point of safety within the county.  All in-county trips reach their destination w/in county.  Does not include any out-of-county trips. 5

2. Clearance Time, In-County  The time required from the point an evacuation order is given until the last evacuee can either leave the evacuation zone or arrive at safe shelter within the County. This does not include those evacuees leaving the County, on their own.  All in-county trips reach their destination w/in county  All out-of-county trips exit the evacuation zone, but may still be located in the county  Does not include out-of-county pass-through trips from adjacent counties, unless they evacuate through an evacuation zone 6

3. Clearance Time, Out of County  The time necessary to safely evacuate vulnerable residents and visitors to a “point of safety” within the county based on a specific hazard, behavioral assumptions and evacuation scenario. Calculated from the point an evacuation order is given to the point in time when the last vehicle assigned an external destination exits the county.  Roadway network within county is clear.  All out-of-county trips exit the county, including out-of-county pass- through trips from adjacent counties.  All in-county trips reach their destination. 7

4. Regional Clearance Time  The time necessary to safely evacuate vulnerable residents and visitors to a “point of safety” within the (RPC) region based on a specific hazard, behavioral assumptions and evacuation scenario. Calculated from the point in time when the evacuation order is given to the point in time when the last vehicle assigned an external destination exits the region.  Roadway network within RPC is clear.  All out-of-county trips exit the RPC, including out-of-county pass- through trips from adjacent counties.  All in-county trips reach their destination. 8

Changes to Study  Small Area Data based on 2010 Census  Scenario years are now 2015 and 2020  Traffic Routing Algorithm has been modified to improve the stability of model results  Some regions have updated evacuation zones  Transportation projects have been updated to reflect 2015 and planned 2020 conditions  Shelter locations and capacities have been updated where necessary 9

10 TBRPC Model Network

11 TBRPC Transportation Evacuation Zones (TEZ)

12 TBRPC Behavioral Assumptions

13 TBRPC Evacuation Zones

Analysis Results  Vulnerable Population  Remaining analysis split into two sections:  Base Scenarios  Operational Scenarios 14

15 Base Scenarios Scenario Overall Evacuation Level Year Behavioral Response Counties Evacuating (Evac. Level if different from overall assigned level) One-Way Plan University Pop. (Fall/Spring, Summer, None) Tourist Rate (Default, Custom) Shelters (All, Primary, Custom) Response Curve Evacuation Phasing Base Scenario 1A % Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando NoneFall/SpringDefaultPrimary12-HourNone Base Scenario 2B % Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando NoneFall/SpringDefaultPrimary12-HourNone Base Scenario 3C % Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando NoneFall/SpringDefaultPrimary12-HourNone Base Scenario 4D % Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando NoneFall/SpringDefaultPrimary12-HourNone Base Scenario 5E % Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando NoneFall/SpringDefaultPrimary12-HourNone Base Scenario 6A % Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando NoneFall/SpringDefaultPrimary12-HourNone Base Scenario 7B % Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando NoneFall/SpringDefaultPrimary12-HourNone Base Scenario 8C % Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando NoneFall/SpringDefaultPrimary12-HourNone Base Scenario 9D % Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando NoneFall/SpringDefaultPrimary12-HourNone Base Scenario 10E % Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando NoneFall/SpringDefaultPrimary12-HourNone

Analysis Results  Evacuating Population  Evacuating Vehicles  Shelter Demand Evacuating Vehicle Trips by Scenario 16 Base Scenarios Level ABCDE ,620720,650947,0851,117,8041,269, ,837758,6041,003,9731,189,5881,355,219

17 Critical Link Maps

Clearance Times 18

19 Operational Scenarios Scenario Overall Evacuation Level Year Behavioral Response Counties Evacuating (Evac. Level if different from overall assigned level) One-Way Plan University Pop. (Fall/Spring, Summer, None) Tourist Rate (Default, Custom) Shelters (All, Primary, Custom) Response Curve Evacuation Phasing Other Notes Operational Scenario 1A2015Planning Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando, Charlotte NoneSummerDefaultPrimary9-HourNone Operational Scenario 2B2015Planning Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando, Charlotte NoneSummerDefaultPrimary12-HourNone Operational Scenario 3C2015Planning Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando, Charlotte NoneSummerDefaultPrimary18-HourNone Operational Scenario 4D2015Planning Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando, Charlotte, Citrus NoneSummerDefaultPrimary24-Hour All Hour 1 Except Citrus and Hernando at Hour 6 All 24-Hour Curve except Citrus and Hernando use 18-Hour; Skyway Bridge closes at Hour 18 Operational Scenario 5E2015Planning Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando, Charlotte, Citrus NoneSummerDefaultPrimary24-Hour All Hour 1 Except Citrus and Hernando at Hour 6 All 24-Hour Curve except Citrus and Hernando use 18-Hour; Skyway Bridge closes at Hour 18 Operational Scenario 6A2020Planning Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando, Charlotte NoneSummerDefaultPrimary9-HourNone Operational Scenario 7B2020Planning Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando, Charlotte NoneSummerDefaultPrimary12-HourNone Operational Scenario 8C2020Planning Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando, Charlotte, Polk NoneSummerDefaultPrimary18-HourNone Operational Scenario 9D2020Planning Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando, Charlotte, Citrus I-4 and I- 75 SummerDefaultPrimary24-Hour All Hour 1 Except Citrus and Hernando at Hour 6 All 24-Hour Curve except Citrus and Hernando use 18-Hour; Skyway Bridge closes at Hour 18 Operational Scenario 10 E2020Planning Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Hernando, Charlotte, Citrus I-4 and I- 75 SummerDefaultPrimary24-Hour All Hour 1 Except Citrus and Hernando at Hour 6 All 24-Hour Curve except Citrus and Hernando use 18-Hour; Skyway Bridge closes at Hour 18

Analysis Results  Evacuating Population  Evacuating Vehicles  Shelter Demand Evacuating Vehicle Trips by Scenario 20 Operational Scenarios Level ABCDE ,355544,973792,9321,061,1541,299, ,454577,556931,6511,133,0301,389,460

21 Critical Link Maps

Clearance Times 22

Questions/Comments?? 23