1 A comparison of productivity in France, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States over the past century Gilbert Cette Yusuf Kocoglu Jacques Mairesse.

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Presentation transcript:

1 A comparison of productivity in France, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States over the past century Gilbert Cette Yusuf Kocoglu Jacques Mairesse

2 1.Goal of the Paper and method 2.Data 3.Long run trends 1.Trends over the entire period 2.Trends by sub-periods 4.Trends over the period 5.Conclusion A comparison of productivity in France, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States over the past century

3 1. Goal of the Paper and method  comparison of productivity in France, Japan, the UK and the US over the very long run (i.e. since 1890) over the medium run (i.e. over the past 25 years) scope : whole economy  based on the traditional “growth accounting” framework  examine and compare levels and growth rates of labour productivity, both per employee and per hour, and of TFP

4 2. Data  use aggregate historical data series from different sources (Maddison,…) ; for the past years, we use national accounts available  re-estimate the capital series for the four countries and the five products on the basis of the investment series  assume constant depreciation rates per investment product and constant global profit share  For ICT, same price estimates (relative to GDP price indices) for France, Japan and the United Kingdom as those in the United States

5 3. Long run trends 3.1 Trends over the entire period (1/5) Productivity average annual growth, , in %

6 3. Long run trends 3.1 Trends over the entire period (2/5) Increase in productivity level from 1890 to 2006 (1890=1)

7 3. Long run trends 3.1 Trends over the entire period (3/5) Labour productivity per hour, as a % of the US level

8 3. Long run trends 3.1 Trends over the entire period (4/5) Same for TFP Total factor productivity, as a % of the US level

9 3. Long run trends 3.1 Trends over the entire period (5/5) Labour hourly productivity level, PPP dollar 2000

10 3. Long run trends 3.2.Trends by sub-periods Average annual hourly labour productivity growth (in %) and contributions (in percentage points)

11 4. Trends over the period Average annual hourly labour productivity growth (in %) and contributions (in percentage points)

12 5. Conclusion (1/2) Some of the main results :  Over the past 120 years substantial economic growth and productivity gains in the four countries France : remarkable catching up of the US productivity level, mainly for TFP Japan : impressive catching up process, stopped in the 1990s UK : long term decline ( ) followed by a catching up process ( ), mainly for TFP  The “Big Wave” mainly explained in the four countries by TFP growth Top of the big wave : before WW2 in US, after in the three other countries

13  Change of productivity leader UK at the beginning of the 20th cent. US after No definitive leadership  In 2006 : Hourly labour productivity : US = France > UK > Japon Productivity per employee : US > France > UK > Japon Total factor productivity : UK >= US >= France > Japon These differences come from capital intensity and working time  ICT capital deepening Acceleration in Slowdown in Conclusion (2/2)