Strategic Plan for HEPEX John Schaake, Eric Wood and Roberto Buizza AMS Annual Meeting Atlanta February 2, 2006

Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) HEPEX aims to demonstrate how to produce reliable hydrological ensemble forecasts that can be used with confidence to make decisions for emergency management, water resources management and the environment

HEPEX Basic Building Blocks All 3 blocks are emerging Major work needed Must be done in an integrated way Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction System User Applications Weather/Climate Ensemble Prediction System

Weather and Climate Forecasts Products, Services, Applications Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction System Observations Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction

Elements of a Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction System Atmospheric Ensemble Pre-Processor Hydrologic Ensemble Processor Land Data Assimilator Hydrologic Models Product Generator Products and Services Single-value and ensemble forecasts Reliable hydrologic inputs Reliable hydrologic products Ensemble initial conditions Ensemble forecasts Weather and Climate Forecasts Obs

Initial Workshop ECMWF - March 8-10, Participants 16 Countries Users [NY Power, BC Hydro, Quebec Hydro, EDF (France), Mekorot (Israel), WMIG (Canada), CddHoward (Canada), SMHI (Sweden), BGF (Germany), …] Meteorologists Hydrologists

Three Basic Elements of HEPEX Testbed Projects Supporting Data Sets Components of the Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)

Future Activities HESS: HEPEX Special Issue HEPEX Strategic Implementation Plan (Eric Wood) BAMS Article (Tom Hammil) Testbed Workshops / Deliverables Data Set Access / Management (JCS) Hydrovision “track” (Chuck Howard) Workshop #3 – Ispra, Italy – Summer 2007

Thank You HEPEX Workshop Boulder – July 19-22, 2005

HEPEX Testbed Projects Canada – Great Lakes Europe –EU-JRC Ispra, Pan-European Flood, Po River Brazil U.S. –SE U.S. –Western U.S. Bangladesh PreProcessing / Statistical Downscaling Hydrologic Uncertainty / Data Assimilation Return

Supporting Data Sets (Under Construction) GFS Fixed Ensemble (1979 – present) –Temperature and Precipitation –Selected Regions Precipitation and Temperature Analyses –Selected Regions –Multi-scale Hydrological Basins –Forcing –Basin characteristics –Streamflow –Snow, soil moisture, satellite, etc TIGGE Ensembles CPC Products (for US) Other? (e.g. ECMWF, CMS, etc.) Return

Algorithm Services Data Services Control Services Display Services Security Services Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) Federal agencies State, regional, and local cooperators Universities Private sector International organizations River Stage & Flow Surface Water Storage Water Supply Availability Flood Potential Water Quality Soil Moisture Runoff Snow Water Equivalent Precipitation Evapotranspiration Near- Surface Deep Point Information (Stations, Grid Cells) Vector Information (River Segments) Return

Rio Grande - Brazil Apply – CPTEC climate ensemble forecasts –RAMS regional climate model Users –ANEEL –ONS Milestone – March 2006 AGU Chapman Porto Alegre, 2006? Return

Southeast US Application of meteorological forcing Include hydrologic uncertainties in hydrologic ensembles Application of climate information as input to predict extreme events Validation for extreme hydrological events Return

Western US and British Columbia Prediction for 2wks to 1 year Importance of Hydrological Model Calibration Data assimilation of snow Climate forecast application strategy Strategies for unbiasing hydrologic ensemble forecasts Return

Statistical Downscaling Initial focus on application of fixed version GFS Ensemble forecasts Links to other testbeds Strategies to produce ensemble forcing for ESP? Verification? Return