Strategic Plan for HEPEX John Schaake, Eric Wood and Roberto Buizza AMS Annual Meeting Atlanta February 2, 2006
Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) HEPEX aims to demonstrate how to produce reliable hydrological ensemble forecasts that can be used with confidence to make decisions for emergency management, water resources management and the environment
HEPEX Basic Building Blocks All 3 blocks are emerging Major work needed Must be done in an integrated way Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction System User Applications Weather/Climate Ensemble Prediction System
Weather and Climate Forecasts Products, Services, Applications Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction System Observations Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction
Elements of a Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction System Atmospheric Ensemble Pre-Processor Hydrologic Ensemble Processor Land Data Assimilator Hydrologic Models Product Generator Products and Services Single-value and ensemble forecasts Reliable hydrologic inputs Reliable hydrologic products Ensemble initial conditions Ensemble forecasts Weather and Climate Forecasts Obs
Initial Workshop ECMWF - March 8-10, Participants 16 Countries Users [NY Power, BC Hydro, Quebec Hydro, EDF (France), Mekorot (Israel), WMIG (Canada), CddHoward (Canada), SMHI (Sweden), BGF (Germany), …] Meteorologists Hydrologists
Three Basic Elements of HEPEX Testbed Projects Supporting Data Sets Components of the Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)
Future Activities HESS: HEPEX Special Issue HEPEX Strategic Implementation Plan (Eric Wood) BAMS Article (Tom Hammil) Testbed Workshops / Deliverables Data Set Access / Management (JCS) Hydrovision “track” (Chuck Howard) Workshop #3 – Ispra, Italy – Summer 2007
Thank You HEPEX Workshop Boulder – July 19-22, 2005
HEPEX Testbed Projects Canada – Great Lakes Europe –EU-JRC Ispra, Pan-European Flood, Po River Brazil U.S. –SE U.S. –Western U.S. Bangladesh PreProcessing / Statistical Downscaling Hydrologic Uncertainty / Data Assimilation Return
Supporting Data Sets (Under Construction) GFS Fixed Ensemble (1979 – present) –Temperature and Precipitation –Selected Regions Precipitation and Temperature Analyses –Selected Regions –Multi-scale Hydrological Basins –Forcing –Basin characteristics –Streamflow –Snow, soil moisture, satellite, etc TIGGE Ensembles CPC Products (for US) Other? (e.g. ECMWF, CMS, etc.) Return
Algorithm Services Data Services Control Services Display Services Security Services Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) Federal agencies State, regional, and local cooperators Universities Private sector International organizations River Stage & Flow Surface Water Storage Water Supply Availability Flood Potential Water Quality Soil Moisture Runoff Snow Water Equivalent Precipitation Evapotranspiration Near- Surface Deep Point Information (Stations, Grid Cells) Vector Information (River Segments) Return
Rio Grande - Brazil Apply – CPTEC climate ensemble forecasts –RAMS regional climate model Users –ANEEL –ONS Milestone – March 2006 AGU Chapman Porto Alegre, 2006? Return
Southeast US Application of meteorological forcing Include hydrologic uncertainties in hydrologic ensembles Application of climate information as input to predict extreme events Validation for extreme hydrological events Return
Western US and British Columbia Prediction for 2wks to 1 year Importance of Hydrological Model Calibration Data assimilation of snow Climate forecast application strategy Strategies for unbiasing hydrologic ensemble forecasts Return
Statistical Downscaling Initial focus on application of fixed version GFS Ensemble forecasts Links to other testbeds Strategies to produce ensemble forcing for ESP? Verification? Return