Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crop Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 August 2010 For Real-time information:

Outline Highlights ENSO Current Status MJO Current Status Monsoons Current Status Northern Hemisphere Circulation Rainfall & Temperature Patterns NCEP/GFS Model Forecast Forecast Verification

Canada and US: Showers and thunderstorms impacted the central Plains and western Corn Belt. Wet conditions are forecast for southwest Alaska, central Canada, the Midwest and the mid-Atlantic regions. Mexico and Central America: Near to above average precipitation fell throughout the region, and elevated precipitation amounts are expected to continue in the next week. Eurasia: Hot and dry conditions continued across western Russia, while heavy rain impacted northern Pakistan. Above average rainfall is expected in the Philippines and Borneo over the next week. Highlights

ENSO Current Status For more information go to: During the last 4 weeks (11 Jul – 7 Aug 2010), SSTs were at least 1.0 deg C below average between 170 W and the South American coast and more than 1.5 deg C below average across parts of the eastern half of the Pacific Ocean. General Summary: La Niña conditions are present across the eastern Pacific. Negative sea surface temperature anomalies continue to strengthen across much of the Pacific Ocean. La Niña conditions are likely to continue through early A La Niña Advisory is now in effect. This means La Niña conditions are expected to strengthen.

MJO Current Status  The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes  The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO  Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation.  Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength  Line colors distinguish different months MJO Index -- Recent EvolutionEnsemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean For more information go to: The MJO index is currently centered over the western Maritime Continent but the signal has weakened in recent days. The GFS forecast shows a weak or incoherent signal over the next two weeks.

Northern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status North AmericaWest AfricaEast Asia For more information go to: Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Monsoonal precipitation has begun to increase over the past couple of weeks across the Southwest US. During the last 90 days near average rainfall has occurred in west Africa near Senegal and Guinea. Near to below average rainfall has occurred in the coastal Gulf of Guinea region and Sudan. During the last 90 days below average rainfall has occurred in southeast Asia and above average precipitation has occurred in eastern China. Monsoon Season: JUN-SEPMonsoon Season: MAY-OCTMonsoon Season: JUN-SEP

Canada and US Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the last 7 days, showers and thunderstorms continued across the northern and central Plains; thunderstorms associated with the monsoon also continued across the southwest US. Rainfall affected parts of southwest Alaska for a second week in a row. Much of the eastern US and southern Plains were drier than average.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 30 days heavy rain and thunderstorms have contributed to river flooding across parts of the central US, and enhanced rainfall has been observed in the southwest US. Below average precipitation has been observed in the southeast US and western Canada.

Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days The western US has been dry, which is typical during this time of year.

Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Maximum During the past 7 days temperatures were near to above average in the Canada. Maximum temperatures reached 25 to 30C in the Prairies and in southeast Canada. AnomalyExtreme Maximum

Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Minimum Temperatures were seasonable for a second week in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, while above- average temperatures and high heat index values continued across the southeast. In Mexico, temperatures were above-average. High temperatures reached over 35C in northern Mexico. AnomalyExtreme Minimum

TotalAnomaly NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 9 Aug 2010 – Days 1-7 For Days 1-7 showers and thunderstorms are expected to contribute to above-average rainfall in parts of the Corn Belt and New England. Below-average rainfall is forecast across most of the southeast and southern Plains, although a tropical disturbance will likely bring rain to the central Gulf Coast midweek. Above average precipitation is forecast for central Canada.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 8-14 the GFS forecasts continued wet weather for the central US. Precipitation is expected to increase compared to week 1 in eastern Canada. Forecasts from 9 Aug 2010 – Week 2

Forecast Verification: North America Total Anomaly Forecast from 26 Jul 2010 Valid Aug 2010 Forecast from 2 Aug 2010 Valid Aug 2010 Observed Aug 2010 Anomaly Total

Mexico and Central America Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly For more information see: During the past 7 days, seasonal tropical rains contributed to near-to-above average precipitation across Central America, while monsoon thunderstorms brought near average precipitation to northwest Mexico.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 30 days, enhanced convective activity has led to above-average rainfall in most of Mexico, Central America, Cuba and Hispaniola.

Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 9 Aug 2010 – Days 1-7 For Days 1-7 the GFS forecasts near-average monsoon rainfall in northwest Mexico, while above-average rainfall is expected across most of Central America and southern Mexico.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 9 Aug 2010– Week 2 For Days 8-14 the GFS forecasts above-average rainfall across southern Mexico and northern Central America.

Forecast Verification: Central America Total Anomaly Forecast from 26 Jul 2010 Valid Aug 2010 Forecast from 2 Aug 2010 Valid Aug 2010 Observed Aug 2010 Anomaly Total

Eurasia Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns GFS Forecast

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 7 days, very heavy rain impacted northern Pakistan for a second week in a row. Above-average rainfall also fell along the coast of western India and parts of southeast Asia. Mostly dry conditions were observed in western Russia and eastern China where it has been very wet during the past several weeks.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days TotalAnomaly

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days TotalAnomaly During the past 30 days above-average precipitation has been observed over southeastern Europe, eastern China, Pakistan, India, and Indonesia. Below-average precipitation has been observed over western Russia.

Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) AnomalyExtreme Maximum AnomalyExtreme Maximum Below-average temperatures were observed in most of central Europe where there were light showers. Highs were in the 30s in southern and eastern Europe where it was mostly dry. In Northwest Africa, temperatures were near average.

Temperature (C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Maximum Well above-average temperatures and mostly dry conditions continued another week in western Russia with highs in the upper 30s. The hot and dry conditions have contributed to protracted drought in western Russia. In the Newlands temperatures were below average in Siberia and in eastern Kazakhstan for a second week in a row, but were above average in the Urals District.

Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days

Temperature (C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Anomaly Extreme Maximum Near-to-below average temperatures were observed over Pakistan and India. Temperatures were near-to- below average in northern China this past week after high temperatures reached 40C in a few locations two weeks ago.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly Forecasts from 9 Aug 2010 – Days 1-7 For more information on Global Tropical Hazards see: (updated Monday at 4pm) For Days 1-7 below average rainfall is expected to continue in western Russia. Wet conditions are likely in the Philippines and Borneo. Enhanced rainfall is also expected in west-central Africa. Tropical Storm Dianmu, currently in the East China Sea, is expected to move northward and bring precipitation to South Korea.

NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts TotalAnomaly For Days 8-14 above-average precipitation is expected across the Philippines, Borneo, and eastern China. This is consistent with the strengthening La Nina. Forecasts from 9Aug 2010 – Week 2

Forecast Verification: Eurasia Total Anomaly Forecast from 26 Jul 2010 Valid 2 – 8 Aug 2010 Forecast from 2 Aug 2010 Valid 2 – 8 Aug 2010 Observed 2 – 8 Aug 2010 Anomaly Total

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