Roshydromet’s COSMO-related plans Presenter: Dmitry Kiktev Hydrometcentre of Russia

Numerical weather forecasting in Roshydromet (Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring) Main participants: Hydrometcentre of Russia (Moscow); Main Geophysical observatory (St-Petersburg); RSMC-Novosibirsk; RSMC-Khabarovsk. Currently in COSMO Roshydromet is represented by the Hydrometcentre of Russia. ============================================ Outside of Roshydromet several institutions of Russian Academy of Sciences (first of all Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics) and universities deal with atmospheric modeling

Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Hydrometcentre of Russia The principal tasks of the Hydrometcentre of Russia are: Investigation of weather forming processes in the Atmosphere- Ocean-Land system; Development of hydrometeorological forecasting methods and technologies; Provision of the population, policy makers and national economy with operational hydrometeorological information, including warnings on adverse and disastrous weather phenomena

SEVERAL HOURS (WARNINGS) SHORT-RANGE MEDIUM-RANGE SEASONAL EXTENDED RANGE Forecast kinds: General purpose forecasts; Specialised forecasts (hydrological, marine, agricultural, aviation etc.) Forecasts issued by the Hydrometcentre of Russia:

Current state of COSMO-activity in the Hydrometcentre of Russia / Roshydromet Associated COSMO member – since July Start of real–time calculations - since August Current configuration: 168  300 grid points, 40 levels Horizontal resolution - 14 km Planned configuration (2008/9): Horizontal resolution to be doubled (7 km)

Participation in COSMO Working groups Coordinated with WG leaders: WG1 (Data assimilation); WG2 (Numerical aspects); WG3 (Physical Aspects). To be specified with WG leaders: WG4 (Interpretation and Applications); WG5 (Verification); WG6 (Implementation). There is a backlog in all the above listed areas.

A proposed contribution to the 1D-Var and KENDA COSMO Priority Projects: Estimation of satellite observation-error statistics The goal is to estimate the multi-dimensional likelihood function for satellite microwave radiance measurements by comparison of satellite obs with radiosonde profiles. This likelihood function is needed in any advanced data assimilation technique. Currently, the satellite likelihood function in all major NWP centres is taken in its simplest form : X is the atmospheric state; Y – measurement; H(X) - non-linear observation operator; η – observation error.

As a rule, η is supposed to be probabilistically independent of X, apart from the bias that is allowed to depend on X. However, besides of the mathematical expectation of P(Y|X) other characteristics (e.g. second moments) can depend on X. Second, P(Y|X) is assumed to be multivariate Gaussian (as a function of Y). This assumption is also not proven yet and may be violated, at least for "non-linear" channels. Third, the inter-channel, spatial and temporal correlations are usually neglected. Because of the indirect nature of satellite observations, the dominant part of the observational error is due to inadequacies in the observation operator H. As H depends on X, its error, is likely, also depends on X. But X is both spatially and temporally correlated, which should result in spatial and temporal correlations of satellite observation errors. The same should be true for inter-channel correlations.

Proposed contribution for the next COSMO year Investigation of the validity of the multivariate Gaussian distribution for satellite AMSU-A observation errors for channels 5-10; Estimation of state independent spatial satellite-error correlations for AMSU-A channels 5-10; Estimation of state independent inter-channel satellite- error correlations for AMSU-A channels 5-10.

A proposed contribution to the Runge-Kutta Priority Project for the next COSMO year : Comparison R-K-scheme with other monotonous schemes: experiments on artificial data Schemes from meteorological applications: ( Bott A., Smolarkiewicz P.K., …), Gas dynamics and plasma physics: (Van Leer B. (2 variants), Harten A., Osher S. (Uniformly NonOscillatory scheme), Roe P.L. (scheme SUPERBEE), Harten A.A.,... ) Experiments with Dynamics-Physics interface.

A possibility of one more new task in one of COSMO PP is currently being discussed. The proposed work is aimed at the development and trial of a new advanced snow parameterization for COSMO model (there is a poster in the lobby).

Snow models description Heat conduction Melting when snow temperature > 0°C or when soil surface temperature > 0°C Heat conduction and liquid water transport Gravitational compression + metamorphosis Solar radiation penetration 1 layerArbitrary number of layers Vertical structure Implemented processes COSMO New model

Thank you