California Energy Security Project: What climate science can do for the energy sector Tim P. Barnett David W. Pierce Scripps Institution of Oceanography La Jolla, CA

Purpose Determine the economic value of climate forecasts to the energy sector. Energy sector already uses weather forecasts, but longer term climate information is not often used. There is a great opportunity here One-year project, funded by NOAA.

Stumbling blocks Climate forecasts give probabilities, not certainties –Working with the industry to show how this information can be used Forecasts can be hard to understand –Our job is to provide what is needed, in a useful form Regulatory issues –Industry actions have to be doable in the framework established by the Public Utility Commission

Project Overview Scripps Inst. Oceanography University of Washington Georgia Inst. Tech California Energy Commission California ISO San Diego Gas & Elec. SoCal Gas PacifiCorp SAIC Academia State Partners Industrial Partners

Example 1. North Pacific Oscillation

Why the NPO matters High pressure associated with the NPO… generates winds from the north west… …which bring cold, arctic air into the western U.S. during winter

North Pacific Oscillation (cont'd) Climate information: likelihood of a warm or cold winter Energy decision: purchase gas on long-term contracts, or spot market

2. Streamflow predictions & hydropower Dams subject to many rules –Must have capacity to prevent floods; must not release so much can't refill; etc. Dam releases in Pacific Northwest planned only after snowpack measured in mid December Streamflow forecasts would let power be generated safely earlier in the year Worth $40M to $153M per year. Hamlet, Huppert, Lettenmeier 2002, J. Water Resources Planning and Management

Hydropower (cont'd) Climate information: seasonal precipitation outlook Energy decision: when to release water for hydropower generation

3. California "Delta Breeze" An important source of forecast load error (CalISO) Big events can change load by 500 MW (>1% of total) Direct cost of this power: $250K/breeze day (~40 days/year: ~$10M/year) Indirect costs: pushing stressed system past capacity when forecast is missed!

NO delta Breeze Sep 25, 2002: No delta breeze; winds carrying hot air down California Central valley. Power consumption high.

Delta Breeze Sep 26, 2002: Delta breeze starts up; power consumption drops >500 MW compared to the day before!

Delta Breeze (cont'd) Climate information: chance of a delta breeze in two days Energy decision: whether or not to fire up peaking plants (take a day to get going)

Where we could go from here…

Climate variations… El Nino North Pacific Oscillation (NPO)

…affect energy… supply demand

…and therefore decisions. Environment vs. HydropowerUrban vs. Agriculture Long term contracts vs. Spot market

Water-Energy interaction Climate Forecast Water Supply Forecast Energy Supply Forecast Public and Private Stakeholders

An Energy-Water Opportunity

Water and power are regional issues -- need a broad, integrated look at the issue

An Energy-Water Opportunity Water and power are regional issues -- need a broad, integrated look at the issue Water and energy systems already stressed to their limits -- climate variations can push things over the edge

An Energy-Water Opportunity Water and power are regional issues -- need a broad, integrated look at the issue Water and energy systems already stressed to their limits -- climate variations can push things over the edge The pieces to do this problem are already there -- but no one has brought them all together yet

An Energy-Water Opportunity Water and power are regional issues -- need a broad, integrated look at the issue Water and energy systems already stressed to their limits -- climate variations can push things over the edge The pieces to do this problem are already there -- but no one has brought them all together yet A project whose time has come