The Mediterranen Forecasting System: 10 years of developments (and the next ten) N.Pinardi INGV, Bologna, Italy

OUTLINE MOON: the EuroGOOS Mediterranean ROOS and the Operational Oceanography components The Observing system achievements The forecasting system achievements and the quality of the products The next ten years of developments

RT Observing System satellite SST, SLA, VOS-XBT, moored multiparametric buoys, ARGO and gliders Numerical models of hydrodynamics and biochemistry at basin scale Numerical models for shelf and coastal areas End-User applications - Downstream services The components of operational oceanography in the Mediterranean Sea: 1995-today

OBSERVING SYSTEM MODELING SYSTEM MOORED BUOY ARRAYS SOOP EXPANDABLE AND ONDULATING INSTRUMENTS SATELLITE SENSING: SEA LEVEL, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, SEA SURFACE SALINITY, COLOR, WINDS DRIFTING BUOYS (SURFACE AND SUBSURFACE) GLIDERS REPEATED MULTIPARAMETRIC SECTIONS SATELLITE AND AERIAL SURVEYS COASTAL RADARS AUTONOMOUS UNDERWATER VEHICLES CABLED MULTIPARAMETRIC STATIONS RIVER RUNOFF AND LOADING MONITORING SEDIMENT/WQ MONITORING MODEL PHYSICS PRIMITIVE EQUATION (> 1-5 KM) TURBULENCE CLOSURE SUBMODELS MODEL PHYSICS Non-Hydrostatic (<1- 5 KM) TURBULENCE AND LIGHT SUBMODELS DATA ASSIMILATION OPTIMAL INTERPOLATION 3-DVAR, KALMAN FILTER DATA ASSIMILATION KALMAN FILTERS ADJOINT MODELS BIOCHEMICAL MODELS PELAGIC COMPARTMENT BENTHIC CLOSURE BIOCHEMICAL MODELS PELAGIC COMPARTMENT BENTHIC-PELAGIC COUPLING SEDIMENT DYNAMICS ATMOSPHERIC FORCING OPERATIONAL ANALYSES AND FORECASTS FROM LARGE SCALE MODELS ATMOSPHERIC FORCING OPERATIONAL ANALYSES AND FORECASTS FROM LIMITED AREA MODELS

MOON data collection: coverage for the period gliders SOOP ARGO M3A Buoy

MOON data collection system: Coastal and shelf stations in real time Every day hourly data to validate the analysis and the forecast

2) Biochemical pelagic forecasting system (OGS) Horizontal res: 1/16°x1/16° ~ 6.5Km Vertical res: 72 unevenly spaced levels Coupling with MyOcean physics 10 days forecast every three days MFS (Mediterranean Forecasting system) Horizontal res: 1/16°x1/16° ~ 6.5Km Vert res: 72 unevenly spaced levels Lateral open boundary condition in the Atlantic: nesting in Mercator global model Coupled wave-current model for wind drag coefficient MyOcean V1 MFS system: Dec. 15, 2010 upgrade

MFS analyses: 10 years of quality increase MOM1.1 +SOFA OPA8.2 +SOFA (sys2b) OPA8.2 +3DVAR (sys3a2) NEMO+3DVAR (sys4a) rmse SEA LEVEL in the Mediterranean

Forecast days Temperature RMSE error (deg C) Forecast -persistence Forecast - analysis MFS forecast skill against persistence at the surface

The MFS users: Limited area sub-basin, shelf scale models Domain overlaps and in-situ distribution

The next ten years problems Sustainable and innovative monitoring network at large and shelf/coastal scales Coupled current-waves and atmosphere-ocean models Data assimilation for all observational sensors, and for coupled ocean-atmosphere and coupled physics and pelagic biochemistry models Ensemble predictions and re-casting of forecast in probabilistic terms Re-analyses at high resolution for the past 100 years Involve users in forecast assessment through donwstream services

The sustainable ocean observatory and laboratory: food, transport, energy and environmental monitoring together An artist view of the Ocean integrated Laboratory and Observatory It can be ‘relocatable’ and adaptive!

Assimilation of gliders observations: large improvements from repeated, across shelf tracks Along path daily averaged glider observations Model without Glider assimilation Model with Glider assimilation

Sea Surface Height Ensemble predictions: now the first prototypes Initial condition ensemble spread has amplified at the 10 fcst day in mesoscale regions Initial condition spread 10-th fcst day spread

In conclusions ERROR: to hear the sea sound you have first to download quicktime and then download the forecast!