NATO UNCLASSIFIED SPONTEX , May 15th Access to Oceanographic Watch and Forecast Report For a correct visualisation of this product, you must click on the green area for more details or on to enlarge the map. +

NATO UNCLASSIFIED SPONTEX , May 15th For a correct visualisation of this product, you must click on the green area for more details or on to enlarge the maps. Access to Oceanographic Watch and Forecast Report

NATO UNCLASSIFIED SPONTEX , May 15th The Oceanographic Watch and Forecast Report : - is an electronic document displaying and analysing oceanic conditions relevant for Anti-Submarine Warfare, - is updated daily according to new available information, - includes products derived from ocean models. Models Content Sea Surface Temperature Sound Velocity Profiles Mixed Layer Depth Current Thermocline layer thickness Depth of Velocity Minimum

NATO UNCLASSIFIED SPONTEX , May 15th OCEAN MODEL The model covers the Bay of Biscay with longitudes ranging from 11° W to 1° W and latitudes ranging from 45.5° N to 48° N. The model has a ~ 1.9 km horizontal resolution. The model is forced at the surface by 3-hour ARPEGE derived fluxes and by daily river flow. Open boundary conditions are derived from the MERCATOR-Ocean model covering the North Atlantic ocean and from the Mog2D tidal model. Results presented in this report include 3D tidal effects (tidal currents and internal tides). 3-days forecast is displayed. The Oceanographic Watch and Forecast Report : - is an electronic document displaying and analysing oceanic conditions relevant for Anti-Submarine Warfare, - is updated daily according to new available information, - includes products derived from ocean models. Models Content Products Current Sea Surface Temperature Depth of Velocity Minimum Mixed Layer Depth Sound Velocity Profiles Thermocline layer thickness

NATO UNCLASSIFIED SPONTEX , May 15th The Oceanographic Watch and Forecast Report : - is an electronic document displaying and analysing oceanic conditions relevant for Anti-Submarine Warfare, - is updated daily according to new available information, - includes products derived from ocean models. Products derived from ocean model (daily, 3-days forecast) Currents at 0m 6-hour steps from 24H to 48H 12-hour steps from 48H to 72H Sea surface temperature at 0m level 6-hour steps from 24H to 48H 12-hour steps from 24H to 48H Mixed layer depth defined as the first velocity maximum depth 6-hour period minimun and maximum values computed with 2-hour fields 12-hour steps from 24H to 48H Thermocline layer thickness defined between mixed layer depth and base of saisonal thermocline 6-hour period minimun and maximum values computed with 2-hour fields 12-hour steps from 24H to 48H Depth of the first velocity minimum beneath the thermocline 6-hour steps from 24H to 48H 12-hour steps from 24H to 48H Sound velocity profile classes 6-hour steps from 24H to 48H 12-hour steps from 24H to 48H Models Content Products Current Sea Surface Temperature Depth of Velocity Minimum Mixed Layer Depth Sound Velocity Profiles Thermocline layer thickness

NATO UNCLASSIFIED SPONTEX , May 15th Current TomorrowD+2 Synopsis : As tidal range increases, tidal curent intensity increases too and exceeds temporay 1 m/s near Sein. Tidal current direction is still well represented. Aside from that, there is no significant change in the general situation : above plain, with meso scale activity and influence of internal tide, maximum currents reach 0.3 to 0.5 m/s. The currents above the shelf show the temporally strenghten correlated to the internal waves. Outlook : gyre by 45.5N/005W remain for next few days. Comparison and model’s validation : no data. Tendancy: the tide is still well represented. Models Content Products Current Sea Surface Temperature Depth of Velocity Minimum Mixed Layer Depth Sound Velocity Profiles Thermocline layer thickness 24 Z30 Z36 Z42 Z48 Z60 Z72 Z D+3 Product - Current at 0m. Daily forecast : - 6-hour steps from 24H to 48H - 12-hour steps from 48H to 72H

NATO UNCLASSIFIED SPONTEX , May 15th Current Models Content Products Current Sea Surface Temperature Depth of Velocity Minimum Mixed Layer Depth Sound Velocity Profiles Thermocline layer thickness 24 Z30 Z36 Z42 Z48 Z60 Z72 Z TomorrowD+2D+3 Product - Current at 0m. Daily forecast : - 6-hour steps from 24H to 48H - 12-hour steps from 48H to 72H Synopsis : As tidal range increases, tidal curent intensity increases too and exceeds temporay 1 m/s near Sein. Tidal current direction is still well represented. Aside from that, there is no significant change in the general situation : above plain, with meso scale activity and influence of internal tide, maximum currents reach 0.3 to 0.5 m/s. The currents above the shelf show the temporally strenghten correlated to the internal waves. Outlook : gyre by 45.5N/005W remain for next few days. Comparison and model’s validation : no data. Tendancy: the tide is still well represented.

NATO UNCLASSIFIED SPONTEX , May 15th Current Models Content Products Current Sea Surface Temperature Depth of Velocity Minimum Mixed Layer Depth Sound Velocity Profiles Thermocline layer thickness 24 Z30 Z36 Z42 Z48 Z60 Z72 Z TomorrowD+2D+3 Product - Current at 0m. Daily forecast : - 6-hour steps from 24H to 48H - 12-hour steps from 48H to 72H Synopsis : As tidal range increases, tidal curent intensity increases too and exceeds temporay 1 m/s near Sein. Tidal current direction is still well represented. Aside from that, there is no significant change in the general situation : above plain, with meso scale activity and influence of internal tide, maximum currents reach 0.3 to 0.5 m/s. The currents above the shelf show the temporally strenghten correlated to the internal waves. Outlook : gyre by 45.5N/005W remain for next few days. Comparison and model’s validation : no data. Tendancy: the tide is still well represented.

NATO UNCLASSIFIED SPONTEX , May 15th Current Models Content Products Current Sea Surface Temperature Depth of Velocity Minimum Mixed Layer Depth Sound Velocity Profiles Thermocline layer thickness 24 Z30 Z36 Z42 Z48 Z60 Z72 Z TomorrowD+2D+3 Product - Current at 0m. Daily forecast : - 6-hour steps from 24H to 48H - 12-hour steps from 48H to 72H Synopsis : As tidal range increases, tidal curent intensity increases too and exceeds temporay 1 m/s near Sein. Tidal current direction is still well represented. Aside from that, there is no significant change in the general situation : above plain, with meso scale activity and influence of internal tide, maximum currents reach 0.3 to 0.5 m/s. The currents above the shelf show the temporally strenghten correlated to the internal waves. Outlook : gyre by 45.5N/005W remain for next few days. Comparison and model’s validation : no data. Tendancy: the tide is still well represented.

NATO UNCLASSIFIED SPONTEX , May 15th Current Models Content Products Current Sea Surface Temperature Depth of Velocity Minimum Mixed Layer Depth Sound Velocity Profiles Thermocline layer thickness 24 Z30 Z36 Z42 Z48 Z60 Z72 Z TomorrowD+2D+3 Product - Current at 0m. Daily forecast : - 6-hour steps from 24H to 48H - 12-hour steps from 48H to 72H Synopsis : As tidal range increases, tidal curent intensity increases too and exceeds temporay 1 m/s near Sein. Tidal current direction is still well represented. Aside from that, there is no significant change in the general situation : above plain, with meso scale activity and influence of internal tide, maximum currents reach 0.3 to 0.5 m/s. The currents above the shelf show the temporally strenghten correlated to the internal waves. Outlook : gyre by 45.5N/005W remain for next few days. Comparison and model’s validation : no data. Tendancy: the tide is still well represented.

NATO UNCLASSIFIED SPONTEX , May 15th Current Models Content Products Current Sea Surface Temperature Depth of Velocity Minimum Mixed Layer Depth Sound Velocity Profiles Thermocline layer thickness 24 Z30 Z36 Z42 Z48 Z60 Z72 Z TomorrowD+2D+3 Product - Current at 0m. Daily forecast : - 6-hour steps from 24H to 48H - 12-hour steps from 48H to 72H Synopsis : As tidal range increases, tidal curent intensity increases too and exceeds temporay 1 m/s near Sein. Tidal current direction is still well represented. Aside from that, there is no significant change in the general situation : above plain, with meso scale activity and influence of internal tide, maximum currents reach 0.3 to 0.5 m/s. The currents above the shelf show the temporally strenghten correlated to the internal waves. Outlook : gyre by 45.5N/005W remain for next few days. Comparison and model’s validation : no data. Tendancy: the tide is still well represented.

NATO UNCLASSIFIED SPONTEX , May 15th Current Models Content Products Current Sea Surface Temperature Depth of Velocity Minimum Mixed Layer Depth Sound Velocity Profiles Thermocline layer thickness 24 Z30 Z36 Z42 Z48 Z60 Z72 Z TomorrowD+2D+3 Product - Current at 0m. Daily forecast : - 6-hour steps from 24H to 48H - 12-hour steps from 48H to 72H Synopsis : As tidal range increases, tidal curent intensity increases too and exceeds temporay 1 m/s near Sein. Tidal current direction is still well represented. Aside from that, there is no significant change in the general situation : above plain, with meso scale activity and influence of internal tide, maximum currents reach 0.3 to 0.5 m/s. The currents above the shelf show the temporally strenghten correlated to the internal waves. Outlook : gyre by 45.5N/005W remain for next few days. Comparison and model’s validation : no data. Tendancy: the tide is still well represented.

NATO UNCLASSIFIED SPONTEX , May 15th Sea Surface Temperature TomorrowD+2 30Z 36Z42Z Synopsis : anticyclonic conditions furthers SST’s warmering (by the south of the theater). Meso scale activity is still marked around 47N/009W while the cold tight band of water along the slope gets narrower northerly. Outlook : progressive warmering over whole area continues with « afternoon effect ». Comparison and model’s validation : no data 24Z Models Content Products Current Sea Surface Temperature Depth of Velocity Minimum Mixed Layer Depth Sound Velocity Profiles Thermocline layer thickness Product - Temperature at 0m. Daily forecast : - 6-hour steps from 24H to 48H - 12-hour steps from 48H to 72H

NATO UNCLASSIFIED SPONTEX , May 15th Sea Surface Temperature 48Z 60Z 72Z TomorrowD+2 Tendancy : no significant change, the situation is settled with warmer waters in the south of the area and colder water along slope. The warmering continues above continental shelf. SST expected to exceed 15°C south 46,5N and east of 004W. Models Content Products Current Sea Surface Temperature Depth of Velocity Minimum Mixed Layer Depth Sound Velocity Profiles Thermocline layer thickness Product - Temperature at 0m. Daily forecast : - 6-hour steps from 24H to 48H - 12-hour steps from 48H to 72H

NATO UNCLASSIFIED SPONTEX , May 15th Mixed Layer Depth Tomorrow morning D+3 Product – Depth of first maximum velocity in mixed layer depth. Daily forecast : - 6-hour period min and max values computed with 2-hour fields from 24h to 48h - 12-hour steps from 60h and 72h Synopsis : MDL ranges from 5 meters (minimun) to 40 meters (maximal value) for first step of 6 hours. Outlook : in the second step of 6 hours, maximal MLD expected to reach 40 m (north of 47N) while minimum value strongly decreases and disappears over whole theater (due to SST warmering). Comparison and model’s validation : no data. D+2 Mixed layer depth min and max between 24 to 30 Z Mixed layer depth min and max between 30 to 36 Z MinimumMaximum Models Content Products Current Sea Surface Temperature Depth of Velocity Minimum Mixed Layer Depth Sound Velocity Profiles Thermocline layer thickness

NATO UNCLASSIFIED SPONTEX , May 15th Mixed Layer Depth Outlook : MLD disappears due to warmering and « afternoon effect » in the first part of afternnon. In the evening, the area of disappearance remains south of 47N. Tomorrow morning D+3D+2 Mixed layer depth min and max between 36 to 42 Z Mixed layer depth min and max between 42 to 48 Z MinimumMaximum Models Content Products Current Sea Surface Temperature Depth of Velocity Minimum Mixed Layer Depth Sound Velocity Profiles Thermocline layer thickness Product – Depth of first maximum velocity in mixed layer depth. Daily forecast : - 6-hour period min and max values computed with 2-hour fields from 24h to 48h - 12-hour steps from 60h and 72h

NATO UNCLASSIFIED SPONTEX , May 15th Mixed Layer Depth D+3 Tomorrow morning D+2 Tendancy : MLD temporary disappears in the afternoon due to « afternoon effect ». 48Z 60Z 72Z Models Content Products Current Sea Surface Temperature Depth of Velocity Minimum Mixed Layer Depth Sound Velocity Profiles Thermocline layer thickness Product – Depth of first maximum velocity in mixed layer depth. Daily forecast : - 6-hour period min and max values computed with 2-hour fields from 24h to 48h - 12-hour steps from 60h and 72h

NATO UNCLASSIFIED SPONTEX , May 15th Thermocline layer thickness Product – Layer between mixed layer depth and base of saisonal thermocline. Daily forecast : - 6-hour period min and max values computed with 2-hour fields from 24h to 48h - 12-hour steps from 60h and 72h Models Content Products Current Sea Surface Temperature Depth of Velocity Minimum Mixed Layer Depth Sound Velocity Profiles Thermocline layer thickness Tomorrow morning D+3D+2 Thermocline layer thickness min / max between 24 to 30 Z Thermocline layer thickness min / max between 30 to 36 Z MinimumMaximum Synopsis : maximal values of thermocline layer thickness are above plain and slope and scalling from 20 to 80 meters, moreover TLT remains at its minimal above shelf (around 20 meters, without a large temporally variability). Outlook : a slight tickening of TLT is expected to begin in the second step of 6 hours (extension of the « 80 meters » area). Comparison and model’s validation : no data

NATO UNCLASSIFIED SPONTEX , May 15th Thermocline layer thickness Models Content Products Current Sea Surface Temperature Depth of Velocity Minimum Mixed Layer Depth Sound Velocity Profiles Thermocline layer thickness Tomorrow morning D+3D+2 Thermocline layer thickness min / max between 36 to 42 Z Thermocline layer thickness min / max between 42 to 48 Z MinimumMaximum Product – Layer between mixed layer depth and base of saisonal thermocline. Daily forecast : - 6-hour period min and max values computed with 2-hour fields from 24h to 48h - 12-hour steps from 60h and 72h Synopsis : maximal values remain above abyssal plain and slope (between 20 and 80 meters) while minimun values situated above shelf (around 20 meters). Outlook : no significant change. Comparison and model’s validation : no data

NATO UNCLASSIFIED SPONTEX , May 15th 48Z60Z 72Z Thermocline layer thickness Tendancy : TLT ranges from 20 to 80 meters (from shelf to abyssal plain). Models Content Products Current Sea Surface Temperature Depth of Velocity Minimum Mixed Layer Depth Sound Velocity Profiles Thermocline layer thickness Tomorrow morning D+3D+2 Product – Layer between mixed layer depth and base of saisonal thermocline. Daily forecast : - 6-hour period min and max values computed with 2-hour fields from 24h to 48h - 12-hour steps from 60h and 72h

NATO UNCLASSIFIED SPONTEX , May 15th Depth of Velocity Minimum Tomorrow D+2 24Z30Z 36Z42Z Synopsis : Depth of first Velocity Minimum (DVM) remains steady around m over the period and tends to disappear around the internal tide generation area (near slope). Outlook : No significant change expected. Comparison and model’s validation : no data Models Content Products Current Sea Surface Temperature Depth of Velocity Minimum Mixed Layer Depth Sound Velocity Profiles Thermocline layer thickness Product – Depth of first velocity minimum. Daily forecast - 6-hour steps from 24H to 48H - 12-hour steps from 48H to 72H

NATO UNCLASSIFIED SPONTEX , May 15th Depth of Velocity Minimum Tomorrow D+2 48Z60Z 72Z Tendancy : Internal tide effect is mainly located over deep waters and tends to strenghten over the continental slope while thermocline variability is not so significant above the shelf. Models Content Products Current Sea Surface Temperature Depth of Velocity Minimum Mixed Layer Depth Sound Velocity Profiles Thermocline layer thickness Product – Depth of first velocity minimum. Daily forecast - 6-hour steps from 24H to 48H - 12-hour steps from 48H to 72H

NATO UNCLASSIFIED SPONTEX , May 15th Sound Velocity Profiles Tomorrow D+2 Product – Sound velocity profiles classes. Daily forecast - 6-hour steps from 24H to 48H - 12-hour steps from 48H to 72H 24Z30Z 36Z42Z No sound velocity minimum Sound velocity minimum MikeNovember Mike November India Depth Sound velocity Surf duct Sound velocity min V Surf duct Sound velocity Synopsis : mainly Mike profiles over whole area. Above shelf, both Mike and November profiles are represented. Outlook : November profiles above slope and continental shelf are expected from the afternoon (combinated action of internal waves and SST’s warmering). Comparison and model’s validation : no data Models Content Products Current Sea Surface Temperature Depth of Velocity Minimum Mixed Layer Depth Sound Velocity Profiles Thermocline layer thickness

NATO UNCLASSIFIED SPONTEX , May 15th Sound Velocity Profiles Tomorrow D+2 48Z60Z 72Z No sound velocity minimum Sound velocity minimum MikeNovember Mike November India Depth Sound velocity Surf duct Sound velocity min V Surf duct Sound velocity Tendancy : Mike profiles are in majority, with temporary November profiles above slope and continental shelf in the afternoon. Models Content Products Current Sea Surface Temperature Depth of Velocity Minimum Mixed Layer Depth Sound Velocity Profiles Thermocline layer thickness Product – Sound velocity profiles classes. Daily forecast - 6-hour steps from 24H to 48H - 12-hour steps from 48H to 72H