Regional Verification of CPC’s Seasonal Outlooks Michael Halpert & Kenneth Pelman Climate Prediction Center.

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Presentation transcript:

Regional Verification of CPC’s Seasonal Outlooks Michael Halpert & Kenneth Pelman Climate Prediction Center

Seasonal Outlook Schedule/Leads Each month, near mid-month CPC prepares a set of 13 outlooks for 3-month “seasons” (any set of 3 adjacent months) for lead times ranging from ½ month, 1 ½ months, 2 ½ months, 3 ½ months, …, 12 ½ months. The outlook for each successive/prior lead time overlaps the prior/successive one by 2 months. This overlap makes for a smooth variation from one map to the next.

Outlook Categories and Probabilities  Seasonal outlooks are prepared for average temperature and total accumulated precipitation category  Three categories are used (terciles). These are BELOW-,NEAR- and ABOVE-normal (median), for temperature (precipitation).  Regions where the likelihoods of the three categories are the same (33.33…% each) are designated as “EC”, for equal chances.  In non-EC regions the labels on the contours give the total probability of the dominant category.

Verification Heidke Skill Score H=[ ( NC – CH)/(NT – CH) ] * 100 H=Heidke Skill Score NC = total number of correct forecasts by station NT = total number of forecasts made by station CH = number of correct forecasts, by chance In 3 class system, scores range from -50 to +100

Examples a. 99 stations, 50 correct forecasts H = [(50-33)/(99-33)] *100 = 25.8 b. 51 stations, 12 correct H = [(12-17)/(51-17)]*100 = c. 45 stations, 35 correct H=[(35-15)/(45-15)*100 = 66.7 Verification

0.5 Month Lead Skill

Data 9+ years of seasonal forecasts JFM 1995 – AMJ Total Forecasts Winter: NDJ – JFM (28) Spring: FMA – AMJ (30) Summer:MJJ – JAS (27) Fall:ASO – OND (27)

Temperature – All Seasons

Temperature – By Season Winter Spring Summer Fall

Temperature – By Category (All) Above Below

Temperature - Category DJF&MAM Winter/Above Winter/Below Spring/AboveSpring/Below

Temperature - Category JJA&SON Summer/Above Summer/Below Fall/AboveFall/Below

Temperature Summary (Official) Good skill from the Pacific NW, peaking in the SW and extending through the South. No skill in N. Plains, Great Lakes, NE Winter forecasts best, Fall poorest No skill in NE, always skill in SW All skill comes from above normal; negative skill everywhere for below

Forecast Tools 1.Optimal Climate Normal (OCN) 2.Canoncial Correlation Analysis (CCA) 3.Coupled Model (CMP) 4.Screened Multiple Linear Regression (SMLR)

Temperature – OCN/CCA All OCN CCA

Temperature – OCN/CCA By Category OCN/Above OCN/Below CCA/Above CCA/Below

Temperature – SMLR/CMP All SMLRCMP

Temperature – SMLR/CMP By Category SMLR/AboveSMLR/Below CMP/Above CMP/Below

Forecast Tools - DJF OCN CCA CMP SMT

Forecast Tools - MAM OCN CCA CMP SMT

Forecast Tools - JJA OCN CCA CMP SMT

Forecast Tools - SON OCN CCA CMP SMT

Precipitation – All Seasons

Precipitation – By Season Winter Spring Summer Fall

Precipitation – By Category (All) Above Below

Precipitation - Category DJF&MAM Winter/Above Winter/Below Spring/AboveSpring/Below

Precipitation - Category JJA&SON Summer/Above Summer/Below Fall/AboveFall/Below

Precipitation Summary (Official) Skill in West, South and NE (few cases) Skillful regions vary by season Skill in all seasons in NW, except Spring Skillful forecasts for both above and below in the SW and along Gulf Coast, FL Skill for winter/spring forecasts for below in South, only along Gulf Coast for above

Precipitation – OCN/CCA All OCN CCA

Precipitation – OCN/CCA By Category OCN/Above OCN/Below CCA/Above CCA/Below

Precipitation – SMLR/CMP All SMLRCMP

Precipitation – SMLR/CMP By Category CMP/AboveCMP/Below SMLR/Above SMLR/Below

Forecast Tools - DJF OCN CCA CMP SMT

Forecast Tools - MAM OCN CCA CMP SMT

Forecast Tools - JJA OCN CCA CMP SMT

Forecast Tools - SON OCN CCA CMP SMT

DJF Outlook