1 121/11/2015Title: to modify choose 'View' then 'Heater and footer' 1 Uncertainties in policy development of BwN projects - Is ambiguity more important than content? Ronald E. van den Hoek and Marcela Brugnach University of Twente IGS-SENSE Conference 2011 – 20 October 2011

2 21/11/ Why is uncertainty important for BwN? Building with NatureBuilding in Nature Use natural system dynamics ≈ accept uncertainty The role of uncertainty fundamentally changes! What does this mean for policy development? Control the system, reduce uncertainty 1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions

333 What is uncertainty? UnpredictabilityLack of knowledgeAmbiguity 1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions Uncertainty is important for policy development. Policy-makers prefer to be certain before spending money or making decisions Types of uncertainty:

4 21/11/ Objectives of my PhD research Assess how uncertainty is evaluated in BwN policy development Identify (types of) uncertainties relevant for BwN policy development 1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions Identify effective strategies to cope with uncertainty in BwN

5 21/11/ Case study: Sand Engine 1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions Large-scale sand nourishment (21.5 million m3 of sand) Natural dynamics distribute sand for natural dune development Coastal maintenance New nature and recreational area Innovation and learning

6 Results  Document analysis and interviews  Typical examples of important uncertainties  Potential Sand Engine “project killers”  3 uncertainties of specific interest for interviewees 21/11/ Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions

7 Uncertainty about recreational safety (1) 21/11/ Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions

8 Uncertainty about recreational safety (2)  Interviewees vs. opponents  Agree that conditions are unpredictable  Disagree whether area can be kept safe  Ambiguity! 21/11/ Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions

9 Uncertainty about drinking water safety (1) 21/11/ Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions

10 Uncertainty about drinking water safety (2)  Project team vs. drinking water stakeholder  Is Sand Engine a potential risk for fresh water supply?  Stakeholder: big issue and requires study  If not: official complaint, causing a “killer delay”!  Agreement needed within two weeks while parties largely disagree  Ambiguity! 21/11/ Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions

11 Uncertainty about economic attractiveness (1) 21/11/ Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions

12 Uncertainty about economic attractiveness (2)  price/m3 sand is half of normal!  Project team: Sand Engine is an attractive and feasible project  Will constructor say: Sand Engine is too expensive?  Anxiety for ambiguity! 21/11/ Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions

13 21/11/ Conclusions Building with NatureBuilding in Nature BwN changes the role of uncertainty in policy development Ambiguity is more important in BwN than uncertainty due to deficit of knowledge 1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions

14 Social processes more important than technology “Technically, the Sand Engine is not very exciting. Sand nourishment, the Dutch can do that, right? But other parties as well. There is a lot of expertise… The specificity of this project is its fast development process, cooperation and managing the environment. There are the real dynamics and uncertainties.” 21/11/ Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions

15 21/11/ Questions Ronald E. van den Hoek University of Twente Thank you for your attention! 1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions