Theory of Knowledge Presentations Some more details to consider…

Real-Life Situation Other Real-Life Situation Other Real-Life Situation Knowledge Issue (recognized) Knowledge Issue(s) (developed) extraction progression application Theory of Knowledge: Presentation Structure

SCIENCE AND PREDICTION Presentation 1

SCIENCE AND PREDICTION Presentation 1 If you have a theory or a model then you should be able to make a valid prediction….

REAL LIFE SITUATION The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the location of its epicentre REAL LIFE SITUATION The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the location of its epicentre Presentation 1: Science and Prediction Tectonic theory explains occurrence of a sunami. Sunami occurs. Does that mean that prediction theory is valid? Could there be another reason for a sunami besides the movement of a tectonic plate. Identify a pattern and then you can make a prediction without needing to continuously test. Tectonic theory suggests that movements in the plates of the earth crust cause earthquakes under the ocean and this causes massive water surges leading a sunami. The story of the neutron and the atom. Scientific theory states that every atom has a nucleus. If you fire radiation at the centre of the atom then you can expect to have radiation rebound off the nucleus. This proves that atom has a neutron. If nothing comes back then the theory is invalid? Or maybe not. Maybe the conditions of the experiment were flawed. Eg problem with using wrong kind of radiation or a lack of precision in the measuring instrument.

REAL LIFE SITUATION The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the location of its epicentre REAL LIFE SITUATION The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the location of its epicentre KNOWLEDGE ISSUE To what extent does prediction test the validity of a scientific theory? KNOWLEDGE ISSUE To what extent does prediction test the validity of a scientific theory? Presentation 1: Science and Prediction KEY:Extraction Can you say that theory is valid if you can use it to make accuarte predictions? Theory = “atom has a nucleus”. Fire radiation at an atom. Some of the radiation will be deflected back because of nucleus. Is there some other reason the radiation would be returned? Do results agree with model? If they do then model might be true. It does not prove it 100% to be true. But I can disprove it? If Nothing comes when I fire radiation at the nucleus then atom has no nucleus.

REAL LIFE SITUATION The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the location of its epicentre REAL LIFE SITUATION The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the location of its epicentre KNOWLEDGE ISSUE To what extent does prediction test the validity of a scientific theory? KNOWLEDGE ISSUE To what extent does prediction test the validity of a scientific theory? Presentation 1: Science and Prediction General nature of scientific theory KEY:Extraction Development As long as expeiments agree with theory you keep the theory. If the results can’t be explained what do you do. Change the theory or modify experiment. Sunami tells you that Tectonic theory works. Is this true? Is it true because prediction works the theory then works also? The prediction that works validates the theory.

REAL LIFE SITUATION The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the location of its epicentre REAL LIFE SITUATION The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the location of its epicentre KNOWLEDGE ISSUE To what extent does prediction test the validity of a scientific theory? KNOWLEDGE ISSUE To what extent does prediction test the validity of a scientific theory? Presentation 1: Science and Prediction General nature of scientific theory Predictions generated by standard tectonic theory Geology: tectonic theory as an explanation for continental drift Explanatory power, predictions from patterns Strengths KEY:Extraction Development Application back Note: out of 10 slides then 6 should be below the line. Of the 4 above 2 for establishing the relevance of the RLS and 2 for the application to other RLS.

REAL LIFE SITUATION The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the location of its epicentre REAL LIFE SITUATION The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the location of its epicentre KNOWLEDGE ISSUE To what extent does prediction test the validity of a scientific theory? KNOWLEDGE ISSUE To what extent does prediction test the validity of a scientific theory? Presentation 1: Science and Prediction General nature of scientific theory Predictions generated by standard tectonic theory Geology: tectonic theory as an explanation for continental drift Explanatory power, predictions from patterns Amenability to experimentation, historical versus experimental data Application of, and responses to, these difficulties in the context of the tsunami Problems of induction and generalization Difficulties with measurement, specifying Initial conditions Confounding variables, complexity of interactions Observer effects Problems Strengths KEY:Extraction Development Application back Note: pink boxes Relate to problems encountered during experimentation. It is not possible to have a 100% perfect experiment. Therefore is it possible to justify the theory based on an imperfect experiment?

REAL LIFE SITUATION The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the location of its epicentre REAL LIFE SITUATION The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the location of its epicentre Biology: evolution by natural selection: homology, palaeontology, artificial selection, etc. KNOWLEDGE ISSUE To what extent does prediction test the validity of a scientific theory? KNOWLEDGE ISSUE To what extent does prediction test the validity of a scientific theory? Presentation 1: Science and Prediction General nature of scientific theory Predictions generated by standard tectonic theory Geology: tectonic theory as an explanation for continental drift Explanatory power, predictions from patterns Amenability to experimentation, historical versus experimental data Application of, and responses to, these difficulties in the context of the tsunami Chemistry: Mendeleev and periodicity Economics: the Phillips curve Chemistry: valence shell electron pair repulsion theory Problems of induction and generalization Difficulties with measurement, specifying Initial conditions Confounding variables, complexity of interactions Observer effects Problems Strengths Other real-life situations (natural sciences and human sciences) KEY:Extraction Development Application back Application onward

REAL LIFE SITUATION The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the location of its epicentre REAL LIFE SITUATION The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the location of its epicentre Economic migrants raise the level of crime in urban Areas. Forced expulsion Is necessary. Is this Prediction valid. KNOWLEDGE ISSUE To what extent does prediction test the validity of a scientific theory? KNOWLEDGE ISSUE To what extent does prediction test the validity of a scientific theory? Presentation 1: Science and Prediction General nature of scientific theory Predictions generated by standard tectonic theory Geology: tectonic theory as an explanation for continental drift Explanatory power, predictions from patterns Amenability to experimentation, historical versus experimental data Application of, and responses to, these difficulties in the context of the tsunami Faith: does a Moving statue Justify faith? If you don’t see it move Does faith decline? Economics: the Phillips Curve. Prediction/ Model fails in 1970’s. History: can you Use the causes of War to predict Conflict? Problems of induction and generalization Difficulties with measurement, specifying Initial conditions Confounding variables, complexity of interactions Observer effects Problems Strengths Other real-life Situations: how valid is the practice of prediction in other subject areas? KEY:Extraction Development Application back Application onward

Real-Life Situation Other Real-Life Situation Other Real-Life Situation Knowledge Issue (recognized) Knowledge Issue(s) (developed) extraction progression application Theory of Knowledge: Presentation Structure

extraction progression application Theory of Knowledge: Build your own presentation here!

Slides 1+2: explain the RLS. Make its relevance Understood. Slide 10: How does ‘prediction’ theory connect with another RLS? Slide 9: How does ‘prediction’ theory connect with another RLS? Slides 3-4: Derive K.I. from RLS And Formulate K.Q. Slides 5-8: Highlight strengths + Weaknesses of your Response to the K.Q. Try and Consider the implications of accepting the validity of prediction and the problems of ignoring the use of prediction as highlighted in part ‘a’ Above. extraction progression application Theory of Knowledge: how to construct the presentation? 40% of presentation above the line 60% below the line. (this is a general guide only.) Above the dotted line: consider the RLS + apply your discovery to other RLS’s Below the dotted line: Focus on addresing your K.Q. using ‘b’ and ‘c’ to help you Key Objective: make sure you refer to the issue of knowledge building + knowledge construction. How has shared knowledge been affected by this reliance on prediction theory? What is relevance of discussion below the Dotted line for your real life situation?

Theory of Knowledge Presentations