 What can we project about the future of terrorism?

1998 Good Friday Agreement, Northern Ireland Saudi exile killed in Pakistan May 2011 LTTE Defeated 2009 Sri Lanka

 Terrorist groups have rarely achieved any of their intended goals  Al Qaeda is weaker, and its future is cloudy  Yet hundreds of years of history suggests there is a future  Lots of major terrorist groups for whom death of bin Laden had no impact  Many questions, few answers  Incremental changes? Sudden new innovations like 9/11?  What kinds of analysis help us anticipate future events?  Need to consider CT implications of: 1.Organizational Attributes 2.Environmental Enablers

 Leadership vs. Leaderless Resistance  Anyone can join an ideologically-centered movement  Anarchists, Left-Wing, Right-Wing, Environmentalists, al-Qaida  Madrid, London, Ft. Hood = al-Qaida transformation milestones  Ideological Resonance  New ideologies?  Old grievances, new groups?  What will the “5 th wave” look like?  Splinter groups?  Intersections of Crime and Terrorism

 Organizational Learning  Terrorists will learn, adapt  Some will embrace the leaderless resistance model  Terrorists will become more proficient  Shaping/Influencing Perceptions  Priority effort for some groups  New Technologies  Drone technology  Electromagnetic Pulse weapons, directed energy beams, high powered microwave (HPM) weapons  Biotechnology  Radiological sciences  Cyber  WMD

 Grievances and Sources of Discontent  Oppressive, corrupt, incompetent regimes  Demographic changes (population growth, urbanization, etc.)  Deep ethnic fissures (Sudan, Yemen, Kurdish regions, Chechnya, etc.)  Economic trends (globalization, resource distribution inequities, etc.)  Facilitators  Porous borders and zones with limited government influence  Vibrant global trafficking networks  Transitioning States  Governments and political systems in transition are often distracted and disorganized  Transition to democracy can be fragile, difficult, violent times

 Our Capabilities  Intelligence (especially HUMINT) is key  Strategies must integrate kinetic and non-kinetic power  Their Capabilities  Constrain communications, asset transactions  Increase costs of organizing, operating  Decrease appeal of ideological resonance  Secure CBRN storage, waste facilities  Environmental Enablers  Support transparency, legitimacy, development, reform  Foster patience, resilience among transitioning states  Rebuild, repair damaged infrastructure, human security

 There is a long history of terrorism  There is a future for terrorism  It is a future that we can manage successfully  Interagency coordination  International cooperation  Information, intelligence and law enforcement  Moral and ethical legitimacy