THE NEW WAVE OF TERRORISM: THE ISIS CASE

Wise Men Board Report June 2015

THEORETICAL INFORMATION Waves of Terrorism: Waves of Terrorism:  Anarchist wave  Ethnic wave  Ideological wave  Religious wave  Cyber wave

Anarchist Wave Ideological Wave Ethnic Wave

… Iran Revolution & Invasion of Afghanistan Technological Revolution Religious Wave Cyber Wave

HOW RELIGIOUSLY MOTIVATED TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS EVOLVE? Religiously motivated terrorist organizations thrive in global instabilities, power gaps and failed states. Religiously motivated terrorist organizations thrive in global instabilities, power gaps and failed states. When oppressed and exploited countries in the last century are analyzed, nearly all Muslim countries could be mentioned in this group. When oppressed and exploited countries in the last century are analyzed, nearly all Muslim countries could be mentioned in this group.

HISTORICAL PROCESS The emergence of the new wave of terrorism:  Occupation of Afghanistan by the Soviet Union (1979)  Invasion of Afghanistan by the US (2001)  Invasion of Iraq by the US (2003)

FROM AL-QAEDA TO ISIS Soviet Occupation of Afghanistan Al-Qaeda came into being The US invasion of Afghanistan Al-Qaeda’s rapid growth in Afghanistan and subsequently Iraq. Al-Tawhid wal-Jihad organization formed in 2000.

FROM AL-QAEDA TO ISIS “Al Qaeda in Iraq” in 2004 The US invasion of Iraq Abu Ayyub al- Masri became the new leader Group renamed as Islamic State in Iraq (ISI) (2006) ISIL separated from Al-Qaeda in February ISI expanded into Syria, and changed its name again as “Islamic State in Iraq and Levant’’ in 2013.

CURRENT SITUATION OF ISIS Leader: Abu Bakr al Baghdadi (2003 – Present)

ISIS-controlled areas in Iraq

ISIS-controlled areas in Syria

Taking control of a vast geographical area Establishing a pseudo-state apparatus Employing strategic and tactical principles in using its force against hostile armed forces Ability to self-finance DIFFERENCES OF ISIS FROM OTHER TERRORıST ORGANIZATıONS

ISIS ideology comprises Wahhabism, antagonism against the West and terrorism ISIS ideology comprises Wahhabism, antagonism against the West and terrorism Although ISIS is a religiously motivated terrorist organization, it has implemented Mao’s three phase strategy Although ISIS is a religiously motivated terrorist organization, it has implemented Mao’s three phase strategy The strategy involving strategic defense, strategic balance and strategic offensive phases is usually implemented by separatist terrorist organizations The strategy involving strategic defense, strategic balance and strategic offensive phases is usually implemented by separatist terrorist organizations Strategy of ISIS

 Systematic airstrikes  Support for actors on the ground  Humanitarian assistance  International counterterrorism activities American Strategy against ISIS

TURKEY’S EXPECTATIONS FROM WEST  Establishing buffer and safe zones and declaring no-fly zones in northern Syria  Hindering the Assad regime’s airstrikes on Hama, Homs and particularly Aleppo  Halting the flow of refugees to Turkey  Regime change in Syria

TERRORISM THREAT: PKK/KCK AND ISIS  PKK/KCK, exploiting the settlement process in Turkey ( ), has organized its PYD branch in northern Syria through the Assad regime’s support  PYD has also gained support from the Western countries against ISIS  PYD might have an autonomous state in northern Syria and could be a serious headache for Turkey  On the other side, Kurdish independence in northern Iraq is also a possibility in near future

ISIS-controlled areas in Iraq and Syria

POLICY PROPOSALS  Multiculturalism and cross-cultural harmony  Fatwas against the distorted religious references  Among diverse opinions, optimal approach should be built

 Informing every segment of the society correctly (media and political parties)  Turkey’s foreign and security policy should be redefined  Intelligence capacity should be developed

 Turkey shouldn’t participate in combat operations in Iraq and Syria  ISIS cells and contacts in Turkey should be closely watched  Refugee camps should be efficiently inspected