MANA 4328 Dr. George Benson benson@uta.edu HR Planning MANA 4328 Dr. George Benson benson@uta.edu 1

HR Planning How many people do we need? Where are they coming from? Product Demand X Labor Productivity Turnover Where are they coming from? Internal Labor Market Existing employees External Labor Market Potential employees

HR Forecasts Labor demand Strategic Planning Succession Planning Managing Retention Labor supply Labor markets Specific shortages Labor Demand Labor Supply

Forecasting Labor Requirements Total labor requirements Productivity and FTE employees Scheduling and shifts High volume / traffic times Internal Labor Market An internal survey of Houston Police Department officers eligible for retirement in 2004 found that 534 plan to leave that year - a 300% increase over recent years that translates into 1 in 10 officers. External Labor Market CVS disclosed in its annual report that it was forced to cut pharmacy hours in 2003 due to lack to qualified pharmacists.

Forecasting Techniques Budgeting Statistical Techniques Trend analysis Regression Probability models Qualitative Techniques Ask the experts / Delphi Technique Needs are then compared to current workforce to identify gaps and decide staffing actions.

Trend Analysis of HR Demand BUSINESS  LABOR = HUMAN RESOURCES FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY DEMAND YEAR (SALES IN THOUSANDS) (SALES/EMPLOYEE) (NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES) 1997 $2,351 14.33 164 1998 $2,613 11.12 235 1999 $2,935 8.34 352 2000 $3,306 10.02 330 2001 $3,613 11.12 325 2002 $3,748 11.12 337 2003 $3,880 12.52 310 2004* $4,095 12.52 327 2005* $4,283 12.52 342 2006* $4,446 12.52 355 *Projected figures

Forecasting Supply of Employees Staffing Tables Markov Analysis Skill Inventories Replacement Charts Succession Planning

Forecasting Internal Labor Supply Staffing Tables Graphic representations of the number of employees currently occupying certain jobs and future (monthly or yearly) employment requirements. Markov Analysis A method for tracking the pattern of employee promotions up through and organization.

Markov Analysis for a Retail Company

Internal Demand Forecasting Tools Skill Inventories Databases of employee KSA’s, education, and used to match job openings with employee backgrounds. Replacement Charts Listings of current jobholders and persons who are potential replacements if an opening occurs. Succession Planning The process of identifying, developing, and tracking key individuals for executive positions.

Replacement Charts

Forecasting Databases PeopleSoft, SAP and Many Others “Army Leads the Way in Forecasting Its Hiring Needs” Washington Post April 29, 2001 (WASS) Workforce Analysis &Support System WASS holds 25 years' worth of data on Army civil service jobs and can be used to analyze long-term workforce trends. (CIVFORS) Civilian Forecasting System Computerized Forecasting System Army hires 25,000 people annually by 2007

CIVFORS Projections Based On: Life-cycle modeling of the civilian workforce based on: Promotions Reassignments Retirements Separations Time series forecasting techniques used to compute probabilities of events such as retirement and turnover. Historical data and personnel characteristics are used as predictors of future behavior.

Shifting Age Distributions in the Civilian Workforce Since 1989 Significant decrease in age groups less than 44 Build-up of retirement eligibles Strength FY89 Median Age 42 FY01 Median Age 48 The aging issue has been predicted for sometime - in large part it is a result of how we downsized - not replacing behind losses we went from an median age of 42 in FY 89 to an median age of 48 in Sep FY 01 and built-up retirement eligible populations STOP! Hand out and review Stat Terms slide 2 (“averages”). Chart shows Age Distribution and how it has changed over time (FY89 vs 00). The aging issue has been predicted for sometime - in large part it is a result of how we downsized - not replacing behind losses we went from an median age of 42 in FY 89 to an median age of 48 in Sep FY 00 and build-up retirement eligible populations Ask: How might age distribution affect our workforce? (experience levels, retirement eligibility, higher grade levels, etc.). Continuity of the workforce could be a problem. Data for this charts came from WASS. The chart was developed in Excel. You will duplicate this chart using WASS for your population of interest (cmd, car prog, etc). Age U.S. Citizen, Direct Hire, Appropriated Fund, Military & Civil Functions

Staffing Actions Recruiting new employees Developing existing employees Retaining key employees Restructuring or redeployment Outsourcing functions Using contingent employees Reassigning shifts

Forecasting for Shift Coverage Employees are needed to be present at all times. Examples: Retail stores, call centers, nurses etc. Need to account for productivity, peak demand, and time off to determine how many people to hire. “Vacancy Factor”

“Vacancy Factor” Indicates how many persons it takes to fill a position for a single shift, taking into account vacation, sick leave, training days, and other types of leave. Total the number of days-off for all dispatchers including days off per week, vacation, sick time, training days etc. Divide the total by the number of employees to obtain an individual average days-off per employee. Subtract the above figure from 365 (days in a year) to estimate the average "days-on” per employee. Divide 365 by the above number to obtain the vacancy or factor. 911 call centers average between 1.4 to 1.7.