Epidemic (Compartment) Models. Epidemic without Removal SI Process Only Transition: Infection Transmission SIS Process Two Transitions: Infection and.

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Presentation transcript:

Epidemic (Compartment) Models

Epidemic without Removal SI Process Only Transition: Infection Transmission SIS Process Two Transitions: Infection and Recovery without Immunity

Epidemic with Removal SIR Epidemic Two Transitions: Infection and Removal SIRS Epidemic Three Transitions: Infection, Removal with Immunity, Loss of Immunity

Infection Dynamics Epidemic: Pathogen Advances from Rarity; Infects Detectable Number of Hosts Endemic: Dynamic Equilibrium; Constant Positive Density of Infectious Hosts Disease-Free Equilibrium: No Infected Hosts AND No Free-Living Pathogens

Infection Dynamics

SIR Epidemic; Fixed Population Size

SIR Epidemic: Pathogen Invasion

Rate of New Infection  S 0 Infections/Time Duration of Infectious Period 1/  Time (Infections/Time) Time = New Infections

SIR Epidemic: Pathogen Invasion