The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 29 June 2015 For more information, visit:

Outline Highlights Recent Evolution and Current Conditions NCEP GEFS Forecasts Summary

Highlights: Last 7 Days Weekly total rainfall continued to be below-average over many places in the Gulf of Guinea countries, whereas much of South Sudan Republic received above-average rainfall. Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for below-average rainfall over portions of eastern Liberia, much of Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, southern Burkina Faso and southwestern Niger.

Rainfall Patterns: Last 7 Days During the past seven days, below-average rainfall was observed over portions of Senegal, much of Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, southern Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, Cameroon, CAR, northern DRC and local areas in southern Chad. In contrast, local areas in Cote d’Ivoire and Burkina Faso, portions of Uganda, South Sudan Republic, and local areas in Ethiopia had above-average rainfall.

Rainfall Patterns: Last 30 Days During the past 30 days, rainfall was above-average over Liberia, southern Cote d’Ivoire, portions of southern Mali, portions of eastern Nigeria, northern Cameroon, southern Chad, CAR, portions of DRC, South Sudan Republic, southern Sudan, much of Ethiopia, portions of northern Somalia, Uganda and western Kenya. In contrast, portions of Senegal, western Mali, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea Conakry, northern Cote d’Ivoire, Sierra Leone, northern Ghana, Togo, Benin, much of Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and local areas in DRC had below-average rainfall.

Rainfall Patterns: Last 90 Days During the past 90 days, rainfall was above-average over Guinea-Conakry, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, southeastern Cameroon, Gabon, western CAR, South Sudan Republic, southern Sudan, many parts of DRC, Uganda, much of Ethiopia, Kenya, southern Somalia, many parts of Tanzania, Zambia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, coastal South Africa. In contrast, much of Senegal, southern Mali, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, portions of Cameroon, southern Niger, portions of southern Chad, eastern CAR, western Angola, portions of Namibia and South Africa, parts of Mozambique, local areas in southern Tanzania and Ethiopia, northern Kenya and much of Madagascar had below-average rainfall.

Rainfall Patterns: Last 180 Days During the past 180 days, rainfall was above-average over much of Guinea-Conakry, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, southern Ghana, southwestern Nigeria, many parts of CAR, Gabon, northern Congo-Brazzaville, much of DRC, South Sudan Republic, southern Sudan, Zambia, southern Malawi, much of Mozambique, local areas in Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Madagascar. In contrast, Senegal, southwestern Mali, Burkina Faso, northern Ghana, Togo, Benin, much of Nigeria, Cameroon, southern Angola, Namibia, portions of Botswana, South Africa, portions of Tanzania, northern Kenya and portions of Ethiopia had below-average rainfall.

Recent Rainfall Evolution Daily evolution of rainfall over the last 90 days at selected places reflects that moderate to heavy rainfall sustained moisture surpluses over northwestern Ethiopia (top right). In contrast, seasonal total rainfall continued to be below-average over parts of southwestern Mali (bottom left) and Nigeria (bottom right).

Atmospheric Circulation: Last 7 Days The 200hpa wind anomalies (right panel) featured stronger than normal easterly flow, associated with the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) across portions of the Greater Horn of Africa Region.

NCEP GEFS Model Forecasts Non-Bias Corrected Probability of precipitation exceedance Week-1: Valid 30 June – 06 July 2015 Week-2: Valid 07 July – 13 July 2015 For week-1 (left panel) and week-2 (right-panel), there is an increased chance for rainfall to exceed 50 mm over Guinea, Sierra Leone, southern Mali, northern Cote d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, parts of the Central African countries and western Ethiopia.

Week-1 Precipitation Outlooks 30 June - 06 July There is an increased chance for below-average rainfall over portions of eastern Liberia, much of Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, southern Burkina Faso and southwestern Niger: An area of anomalous lower-level divergence combined with the projected phase of the MJO is expected to suppress rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate

Week-2 Precipitation Outlooks 07 July - 13 July There is an increased chance for above-average rainfall over Guinea-Bissau, Guinea Conakry, Sierra Leone, southwestern Mali, western Burkina Faso and Liberia : An area of anomalous lower level convergence and upper- level divergence is expected to enhance rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate 2.There is an increased chance for below-average rainfall over southern Sudan and northern South Sudan Republic: An area of anomalous lower level divergence and upper-level convergence is expected to suppress rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate

Summary During the past seven days, below-average rainfall was observed over portions of Senegal, much of Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, southern Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, Cameroon, CAR, northern DRC and local areas in southern Chad. In contrast, local areas in Cote d’Ivoire and Burkina Faso, portions of Uganda, South Sudan Republic, and local areas in Ethiopia had above-average rainfall. During the past 30 days, rainfall was above-average over Liberia, southern Cote d’Ivoire, portions of southern Mali, portions of eastern Nigeria, northern Cameroon, southern Chad, CAR, portions of DRC, South Sudan Republic, southern Sudan, much of Ethiopia, portions of northern Somalia, Uganda and western Kenya. In contrast, portions of Senegal, western Mali, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea Conakry, northern Cote d’Ivoire, Sierra Leone, northern Ghana, Togo, Benin, much of Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and local areas in DRC had below-average rainfall. During the past 90 days, rainfall was above-average over Guinea-Conakry, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, southeastern Cameroon, Gabon, western CAR, South Sudan Republic, southern Sudan, many parts of DRC, Uganda, much of Ethiopia, Kenya, southern Somalia, many parts of Tanzania, Zambia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, coastal South Africa. In contrast, much of Senegal, southern Mali, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, portions of Cameroon, southern Niger, portions of southern Chad, eastern CAR, western Angola, portions of Namibia and South Africa, parts of Mozambique, local areas in southern Tanzania and Ethiopia, northern Kenya and much of Madagascar had below-average rainfall. Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for below-average rainfall over portions of eastern Liberia, much of Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, southern Burkina Faso and southwestern Niger.