REReP regional meeting on “Energy and climate” in South Eastern Europe May rd, 2008 Brussels, Belgium CLIMATE CHANGE: Scientific base for international negotiations Zsuzsanna Ivanyi

OUTLINE Introduction Evidence of Climate Change Projected changes Mitigation options Conclusions

INTRODUCTION Based on their latest observations, the IPCC has now (AR4, 2007): “very high confidence” that the globally averaged net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] W m -2.

DIRECT OBSERVATIONS The global average surface temperature has increased at the 100-year trend (1906– 2005) of 0.74°C ± 0.18°C. Snow and ice are melting widespread Global mean sea level is rising Source: Pachauri and Jallow, 2007.

Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000

Warming is truly global Warming since 1979 show: Source: Manning, 2007.

CHANGES in EXTREMEs Widespread changes in extreme temperatures observed (less frequent cold days, nights and frost, more frequent heat waves) Heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas More intense and longer droughts (observed since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics). Source: Pachauri and Jallow, 2007.

What can be expected? For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emission scenarios. Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries due to the timescales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were stabilized. Temperatures in excess of 1.9 to 4.6°C warmer than pre-industrial sustained for millenia – resulting in melting of Greenland ice sheet Source: IPCC, AR4, WG I. 2007

Emission Scenarios (SRES)

Projected warming in 21st century expected to be greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes and least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean Projections of Future Changes in Climate Source: IPCC, AR4, WG I

This map illustrates what can be expected in Europe by the end of the century, according to the IPCC scenario (SRES A2) whereby no action is taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, so that the global mean temperature increases by about 3.4°C by the 2080s compared to 1990 levels. Under this scenario, nearly all European regions are expected to be negatively affected and up to half of Europe’s plant species could be vulnerable or threatened by Source: Commission Adaptation Green Paper; TEMPERATURE

This map illustrates what can be expected in Europe by the end of the century, according to the IPCC scenario (SRES A2) whereby no action is taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, so that the global mean temperature increases by about 3.4°C by the 2080s compared to 1990 levels. Under this scenario, nearly all European regions are expected to be negatively affected and up to half of Europe’s plant species could be vulnerable or threatened by Source: Commission Adaptation Green Paper; Marr, SUN presentation, PRECIPITATION

Continued GHG emissions at or above current rates would increase further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21 st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20 th century” Source: Pachauri and Jallow, Projections of Future Changes in Climate

Source: Stern Review, 2007.

The Three Key Pillars of Mitigation Strategies 1.Lowering the energy intensity of economic activity through increases in the efficiency of vehicles, buildings, appliances, and industrial processes 2.Lowering the carbon-emissions intensity of energy supply through additions of renewable and nuclear energy supply and through modifications to fossil fuel technologies that enable the capture and sequestration of CO2 3.Reducing the carbon emissions from land-use change by means of reforestation, afforestation, avoided deforestation, and improved soil- management practices in agriculture Source: Urge-Vorsatz Presentation of the UN SEG Report

Mitigation portfolio for electricity, 2030 Source: IPPC, AR4, WG III, 2007.

Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades will have a large impact on opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels [1][1] The best estimate of climate sensitivity is 3ºC [WG 1 SPM]. [2][2] Note that global mean temperature at equilibrium is different from expected global mean temperature at the time of stabilization of GHG concentrations due to the inertia of the climate system. For the majority of scenarios assessed, stabilisation of GHG concentrations occurs between 2100 and [3][3] Ranges correspond to the 15th to 85th percentile of the post-TAR scenario distribution. CO2 emissions are shown so multi-gas scenarios can be compared with CO2-only scenarios. Source: IPPC, AR4, WG III, Long-term mitigation target (till 2050)

 However, little can now be done to change the likely adverse effects that some developing countries will face in the next few decades, and so some adaptation will be essential.  Strong and early mitigation is the only way to avoid some of the more severe impacts that could occur in the second half of this century.  Current evidence suggests a stabilisation need of 450 – 550ppm CO2-eq – Anything higher has very harmful impacts – Anything lower raises costs significantly and may not even be feasible any more – Mitigation and adaptation measures should be integrated and reinforcing Source: Stern Review, Stabilization targets

The evidence of anthropogenic climate change is now unequivocal All countries in CEE are and will be badly affected, although severity and type of impacts vary Avoiding dangerous impacts requires urgent and strong action today Emission reduction needs are 30 – 50% in 2025, while around 80% for 2050 However, the AR4 concludes that this is feasible. CONCLUSIONS

REC Climate Change Activities Started in 1999 with the specific objectives: to support countries in CEE and beyond reforming their policies to comply with the commitments and respond to the opportunities created by the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol, to disseminate best practices, and to facilitate capacity building.

Major Activities Identifying the institutional, administrative and legislative needs for implementing the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol; Promoting the flexible mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol and the Green Investment Scheme (GIS); Assessment of effectiveness of policies and measures; Co-operation with EEA/ETC to prepare EEA Report on GHG emission trends and projections in Europe 2007 and 2008

Major Activities (cont.) Leading case studies in the field of adaptation; Facilitation of climate policy in EITs for the Post- Kyoto period; Promotion of activities of the REC as Regional Focal point for Article 6 of the UNFCCC (related to education, training, awareness raising, observations, researches and modeling in the field of climate change); Enhance SEE sub-regional cooperation in the field of climate change (e.g. Belgrade initiative).

Main challenges in SEE All SEE countries face problems with responding to the obligations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Problems are mainly come from: – They are faced with growing damage caused by meteorological, hydrological and climate extremes and catastrophes, and on the other hand, faced with poverty and necessity for development – In addition, the SEE countries have limited access to knowledge, technology and financing, and have a great need of capacity building and development (systemic, institutional and individual), that has to be coupled with the requirements of the Stabilisation and Association process to the EU Belgrade Initiative on Climate Change

Main barriers, gaps in SEE 1.Legal Aspects There is some progress, implementation of existing laws is challenge 2.Institutional/Human Capacity -Lack of human capital (SEE countries are under-represented at COPs) -Inter-sectoral co-operation and coordination is weak, - Co-operation between national, regional and local levels to be improved, - Guidelines (practical) for regional/local authorities would be needed, 3.Financial Aspects - Lack of financial resources at national and local levels 4.Scientific area Co-operation between science and decision-makers to be improved 5.Information area Enhance awareness raising, especially focusing on mass media.

Suggested CB activities Strengthening the scientific basis for observation and modelling, promote the international cooperation between scientists; Raising awareness at the level of the non- environmental governmental bodies; Creating sustainable capacities; Improving information flows on the inter- ministerial level; Raising awareness at the level of the stakeholders which will be affected by the consequences of climate change Financing (through GIS soft greening among other).

Thank you for your attention