Moving toward Decision-Making as a Central Focus Other Core Collaborators: Lisa Dilling Linda Mearns Susi Moser (ESIG)

WCIAS Strategy Filling critical gaps in weather and climate impact assessment science Developing integrating methodology Moving toward decision-making as a centerpiece Promoting integration of assessment science activities at NCAR, nationally and internationally

Overview Decision-making in the WCAI – An Evolutionary Perspective Moving Toward Decision-Making as the Central Focus DUST Future Directions

Evolutionary Perspective Intentions: –Produce science of high societal value –Make uncertainties in weather/climate assessments more transparent to decision- makers (quantify, characterize, communicate) –Assess the feasibility of an end-to-end characterization of uncertainty (i.e., from global climate model to decision-making) From providing decision support to also examining the decision process…

Weather Extremes in Aviation Information need Safety control Extremes statistics

California Water Resources Project Climate & Climate Change Physical Hydrology Watershed Management Integrated Decision Support Decisions Sykes Reservoir FERC Relicensing Conjunctive Use System Operations Socio-Economics Decision-Makers CALFED State Assembly Cal. Water Dept. Others Ecosystem Services Credibility Legitimacy Relevance

Local needs Political and economic constraints Weather and climate research (NCAR, NOAA, Universities) Rules Regulations Advice Conditional $ State and Regional flood management agencies Local floodplain administration Federal agencies (e.g., FEMA, NFIP, NWS, Army Corps) Private sector consultants Scientific & Technical Information Front Range Flood Management

Wildfire Project Homeowners & Local planners CLIMATE VARIABILITY drought “fire-weather” Information needs? Code changes Decision Model WILDFIRE INITIATIVE Perception of risk and uncertainty? Information needs? Retrofitting decisions

Decision-Making (Assessment of needs, decision entry points, institutional constraints, politics etc.) Mitigation Adaptation Toward Decision-making as a Central Focus For WCIAS projects where decision-making matters….

DUST – The Decision Uncertainty Screening Tool Purpose –Integrative link between physical sciences, uncertainty analyses, and decision- and policy-making –Procedure to identify where and how science can most effectively support decision-making –Systematic approach to determining where and when uncertainty matters

DUST – A stepwise, iterative attempt at improving the science/decision-maker interaction Premises –Decision-maker and decision-making are central –Scientific information can be an important input into decision- making –No assumption about best way to make decisions under conditions of uncertainty –No preference for a “top-down” or “bottom-up” approach to assessments Objectives –For all kinds of decisions –For a variety of decision-making contexts –For a range of decision-makers –Applicable at a variety of scales

Step 1: Identify the stage in the decision process where climate science can enter

Step 2: Ensure that scientific input is useful, credible, and legitimate (A) ScienceDecision-making (B) ScienceDecision-making Credibility Legitimacy Usefulness - Relevance - Compatibility - Accessibility - Receptivity

Step 3: Identify the type of decision problem decision-makers face OPTIMIZATION – EVALUATION – ROBUST ADAPTIVE PLANNING Step 4: Identify the specific decision challenge A three-dimensional typology of climate-sensitive decisions - Optimization/Evaluation - Near-/Long-term - One-time/Sequential Step 5: Identify necessary uncertainty analyses Step 6: Conduct identified uncertainty analyses

Step 7: Communicate uncertainties back to the decision-maker Familiarity Format Link back to decision problem Explanation of uncertainties Coordination Keep others informed of what they need to know, without overburdening them with unnecessary information Information Who needs to know what Confirmation Make sure they right people have the information they need Timeliness Avoid confusion by delivering message/ data on time Accuracy Wrong information may be worse than none at all Good Communication

Expected Outcomes Streamlining and prioritization of uncertainty assessment Greater transparency and awareness Educational for scientists (and beginning scholars, students of applied science) Educational for decision-makers Boundary object Credibility Legitimacy Relevance

Using DUST to Move Forward… DUST: educational, screening tool, a heuristic Informs the interpretation of, and learning from, past projects Informs the development of future research projects

Future Directions NCAR-RISA Collaboration –Workshop to establish linkages in FY05 Communication of Uncertainty to Decision- Makers –Collaboration with DMUU at RAND Corp. Feasibility Limits of Adaptation Strategies to Sea-Level rise –Project development during early FY05 –Comparative case study approach –Multi-disciplinary collaboration Decision-making at the Climate–Health Interface –Heat waves –Air quality management Scales of decision-making -Carbon flux -Water resource management Societal use of weather information