Part 2 Foresight studies Practice and Methods that support them

Why is the Practice to have a framework for designing foresight studies? Contextual Issues providing advice regarding the organisation, running and implementation of Foresight Programmes Countries using (or wishing to use) foresight methodologies are: culturally different at different socio-economic stages of development Assumption that there is always more than one ‘good way’ to do things

Elements of Forming a Foresight programme Coalition building Sponsorship Objectives Scope of the programme Research elements and methods Reflexivity Resources Level of the programme Type of intervention Outcomes

Essential timing steps The discussion of the elements of a Foresight Programme should be conducted in the context of three points in time: Its initiation Execution Implementation of its results

Notional process

The methods scene Orientation Normative Exploratory Nature Qualitative Semi-quantitative Quantitative Essence Evidence-based Expertise-based Creativity-based Interaction-based

Methods in context Foresight methods: expert assumptions subjective judgements tacit knowledge are borrowed and adapted from elsewhere Methods you think you know... Methods you think you don’t know… Methods you don’t know you don’t know…

But remember: Wittgenstein who said in 1953 that: “methods pass the problem by”

Methods may be: Qualitative Quantitative Semi-Quantitative NUSAP Relying on opinion Quantitative Numerical and statistical data Analyses and processing of databases, indicators Semi-Quantitative Mathematical or statistical principles to process subjective knowledge Examples: weighting ideas, judgements NUSAP Number; Units: Spread; Assessment; Pedigree

The foresight triangle The Foresight Triangle, as it is also known, became very popular among Foresight practitioners because of the user-friendliness and simplicity of the framework. Especially because it helps people to understand that certain proportion of creativity, expertise and interaction need to be combined in the process. But …

There’s more to it …. The diamond Creativity Evidence helps creativity and challenges expertise.. The Diamond makes it easier to classify widely used methods such as literature review and scanning, for example. The Foresight Diamond Expertise Interaction Evidence-based activities, such as technology assessment, technology watch, benchmarking, patent analysis and bibliometrics, should form the forth pole Scanning Literature review Evidence

The whole picture Creativity Expertise Interaction Evidence Wild cards Science fiction Gaming-simulation Essays / Scenario writing Genius forecasting Role Play/Acting Backcasting Brainstorming Relevance trees / Logic charts Scenario workshop Roadmapping Delphi SWOT analysis Citizen Panels Expertise Expert Panels Morphological analysis Conferences / Seminars Interaction Key/Critical technologies Multi-criteria Voting / Polling Quantitative Scenarios/SMIC Stakeholders Mapping Interviews Benchmarking Cross-impact Modelling System/Structural analysis Bibliometrics Patent analysis Extrapolation Scanning Literature review Indicators Qualitative (17) Semi-quantitative (10) Evidence Quantitative (6) R. Popper (2006)

Exploratory & Normative Based on what we know Today Exploring Possible Futures Examples: Conventional Delphi Conventional Scenario Workshops Cross-impact analysis Trend extrapolation Normative Based on what we want/desire for the Future Planning how to get there from Today Goals Delphi Success Scenario workshops Relevance trees, morphological analysis and roadmapping

Brainstorming A creative and interactive face-to-face and online group working session to generate: new ideas around a specific area of interest to remove inhibitions and allow people to think more freely It is key component of foresight: it’s extremely flexible : The steps are: Sharing and exchanging views by the group of people Gathering the ideas as they arise without being criticised or further elaborated all ideas are discussed and clustered into categories