NOAA’s Next-Generation Polar and Geostationary Satellites – Hurricane Applications Ray Zehr, Mark DeMaria, John Knaff, Kimberly Mueller NOAA/NESDIS Office of Research and Applications, RAMM Team CIRA, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523

GOES-R Planned Launch Date, Sept (to be preceded by 3 GOES, N-O-P, comparable to currently operational GOES-12) GOES-N – May 2005 launch GOES-O – April 2007 launch GOES-P – Oct 2008 launch GOES N-O-P Improvements: –Image transmission during eclipse period -- calibration, navigation, “striping” problem

NPOESS NPOESS: National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System -NOAA + DMSP satellite programs: NPOESS - NPOESS Planned Launch: 2009 (first in series of 6 satellites to be launched ) -Last in series of currently operational NOAA satellites: Planned launch date NOAA-N, May 11, NOAA-N’ Planned Launch of precursor transition satellite -(NPP – NPOESS Preparatory Project) – Oct 31, 2006

GOES-R Instruments ABI (Advanced Baseline Imager) HES (Hyperspectral Environmental Suite) GLM (Global Lightning Mapper) SIS (Solar Imaging Suite) SEISS (Space Environment In-Situ Suite)

ABI ABI: Advanced Baseline Imager 16-Channel Imager ( micrometer) 0.5 km res. visible channel 1-km res. w/ 3 other daytime channels 2-km res. w/ all other channels Improved rapid-scanning capability

Comparison of 16-band GOES-R ABI with MODIS bands GOES-R ABIMODIS Band NumberWavelength (μm)Band NumberWavelength (μm) 1 (blue)0.473 (blue) (red)0.641 (red) No Equivalent No Equivalent

HES Hyperspectral Environmental Suite - replaces current GOES Sounder’s 18 spectral bands - high spectral resolution interferometer km spatial resolution - high time resolution

NPOESS Sensors: VIIRS CMIS CrIS GPSOS OMPS SESS APS ATMS DCS ERBS RADAR Altimeter SARSAT TSIS ASCAT ILRS CRIMSS

NPOESS - Instruments: 1)VIIRS (Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite) – NOAA AVHRR + DMSP OLS 2)CrIS (Cross-track Infrared Sounder) 3)ATMS (Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder) 4)CMIS (Conical Scanning Microwave Imager/Sounder) 5)Radar Altimeter

NPP Instruments VIIRS (Imager) CrIS (IR sounder) ATMS (Microwave sounder)

VIIRS 22 spectral bands m res imaging in 6 channels Including Nighttime vis imaging Visible Infrared Imager / Radiometer Suite =VIIRS

CrIS Temperature and humidity soundings Hyperspectral (over 1000 bands) Infrared 18.5 km nadir horizontal resolution Improved vertical resolution (~ 1 km) Improved accuracy ( 1 degK) Cross-track Infrared Sounder = CrIS

ATMS Microwave sounder –2300 km swath –22 channels –Horizontal res similar to current AMSU A/B Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder = ATMS

CMIS Microwave –1700 km swath –15-50 km horizontal resolution 77 channels 6GHz –190 GHz at variable footprint size Conical Scanning Microwave Imager/Sounder = CMIS

GOES-R / NPOESS Research Project at NOAA/NESDIS/RAMM and CIRA/ Colorado State University reduce the time needed to fully utilize GOES-R and NPOESS as soon as possible after launch analyze case studies of tropical cyclones, lake effect snow events, and severe weather outbreaks use numerical simulations and existing in situ and satellite data to better understand the capabilities of these advanced instruments

Project Participants Project Leaders –T. Vonder Haar, M. DeMaria*, J. Purdom* Numerical Modeling/Data Assimilation –L. Grasso, D. Zupanski, M. Zupanski Radiative Transfer Modeling –M. Sengupta Data Analysis and Training –D. Hillger*, J. Dostalek, R. Zehr*, D. Lindsey*, D. Bikos*, J. Knaff, Bernadette Connell, Students Computer Support –D. Watson, H. Gosden, K. Micke *Support from NESDIS Base or other CIRA Projects

Initial Case Studies Kansas/Oklahoma Severe Weather Outbreak, May 8-9, 2003 –286 tornados May 6-10 (5-day record), storms near ARM site Hurricane Lili Landfall (Sept 30-Oct 3, 2002) –Unexpected intensity changes in Gulf, aircraft GPS-sondes available Lake-Effect Snow, Upstate NY, Feb , 2003 –50 inches of snow, multiple-lake bands California/Utah Colorado Fog Event, Jan. 12, 2004 –Fresno airport closed all day, includes valley and mountain fog cases Hurricane Isabel near Peak Intensity, Sept 11-13, 2004 –Long-lasting Cat 5 hurricane, unusual inner core structure, aircraft GPS- sondes available, several days of GOES super-rapid scan data

New Case Studies Norwegian Polar Low Case, 15 Aug 2004 –Rare summertime polar low, evaluation of MODIS visible channels for ABI in convective environment, better MODIS/AVHRR time resolution Great Plains dust outbreak, 18 Apr 2004 –Good case for ABI product development from MODIS Ecuador volcanic eruption, 4 Nov 2004 –Good case for ABI product development from MODIS Sacramento Valley fog event, 19 Nov 2004 –Interesting cloud top structure Indian ocean tropical cyclone, 22 Jan 2005 –MSG data for evaluation of ABI channels Hurricane Fabian, Aug. 31, 2003 –NOAA G-IV Jet GPS soundings for AIRS evaluation Hurricane Charley, Aug. 13, 2004 –Small storm for ABI Dvorak algorithm Severe Weather GOES Climatology, Sep 2003-Aug 2004 –Cloud top structure analysis for new ABI product

GOES-R Enhanced rapid scanning capability

Simulation of GOES-R Using Numerical Cloud/Radiative Transfer Models Run cloud model along with a radiative transfer model to generate simulated satellite observations RAMS Numerical Cloud Model –Non-hydrostatic cloud model developed at CSU –Sophisticated two-moment cloud microphysics aggregates, graupel, hail, pristine ice, rain, and snow –Two-way interactive moving nested grids RAMS initial condition from NCEP ETA model analysis Transfer from RAMS to WRF model in later years

Synthetic 2 km ABI µm Loop Hurricane Lili Case

Evaluation of AIRS Soundings in Tropical Cyclone Environments Can hyperspectral observations improve sampling of hurricane environments relative to current data? –Obtain AIRS soundings for recent hurricanes with GPS soundings from the NOAA G-IV Jet Lili (2002), Isabel (2003), Fabian (2003) –Use GPS sondes as ground truth –Compare AIRS sounding errors with NCEP NMN or GFS background field soundings Do AIRS data reveal structures not current resolved by current data assimilation systems? Preliminary results for Hurricane Lili (2002) on Oct 2

AIRS/Aircraft GPS Matching Soundings Lili 2002 Fabian 2003Isabel 2003 Granule 73 Granule 176 Storm #Soundings Lili Isabel Fabian Total 83 Granule 179

Preliminary Results With 22 Lili Soundings AIRS T errors < 1.5 o C AIRS T errors smaller than ETA first guess in lower troposphere AIRS T has small bias AIRS T d has large moist bias Despite moist bias, AIRS T d has higher correlation with GPS T d than ETA first guess profiles Cloud contamination major source of error

Hurricane Eye Soundings Can HES be used to monitor intensity from eye soundings? Test with AIRS soundings –AIRS retrievals ~48 km resolution (3 by 3 AIRS FOV’s) –HES will include ~4 km resolution Hurricane Isabel had large eye on 9/13 – 9/ AIRS eye sounding from Isabel –9/13/ UTC

Isabel Eye Sounding from AIRS Eye Sounding Environment Sounding Eye - Environment Temperature Integrate Hydrostatic Equation Downward from 100 hPa to Surface Environment Sounding: P s = 1012 hPa Eye Sounding: P s = 936 hPa Aircraft Recon: P s = 933 hPa

ABI Hurricane Intensity Estimation Objective Dvorak method uses GOES IR channel 4 –Intensity depends on coldest ring and eye temperature ABI improvements –4 km reduced to 2 km –Additional channels Collect MODIS and AVHRR data for testing –3 preliminary cases Lili 2002, Isabel 2003, Charley 2004 –Sensitivity to resolution –New algorithm development

4 km versus 2 km Imagery

Potential hurricane application topics for enhanced GOES-R/NPOESS measurements Environmental soundings Eye soundings Improved intensity estimates Surface Wind Analysis Onset of Rapid Intensification Tropical Cyclone Formation

Reference Information Schmit, T., M. Gunshor, P. Menzel, J. Gurka, J. Li, and S. Bachmier, 2005: Introducing the next generation advanced baseline imager on GOES-R, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 86,