Keith Burrows AIP Education Committee (Vic) CONASTA July 2009 PART 2

Other groups talking about climate change: Other groups talking about climate change: ‘Concerned citizens’ – well intentioned, often not well informed. ‘Concerned citizens’ – well intentioned, often not well informed. Why US?

Other groups talking about climate change: Other groups talking about climate change: Why US? ‘Activists’ – often not their real agenda.

“Heartland's mission is to discover, develop, and promote free-market solutions to social and economic problems. Such solutions include parental choice in education, choice and personal responsibility in health care, market-based approaches to environmental protection, privatization of public services, and deregulation in areas where property rights and markets do a better job than government bureaucracies.” From ‘About’ on their website.

“The Christian view understands that man is a steward of creation's resources and dismisses the notion that man is merely a consumer and polluter.” Rev. Robert A. Sirico on Heartland’s website [“steward” here seems to be more like “exploiter”]

“The frustrating thing, very often, is that the only time religious sentiments or ideas have been expressed in our society is through left-wing groups. We see this in the entire environmental movement. Many left-wing groups who are in the public square are motivated by religious sentiments – poorly formed religious sentiments, I think. They are certainly economically uninformed sentiments. But, nonetheless, they have a voice. We try to provide an alternative to that.” Rev. Robert A. Sirico on Heartland’s website

From this article: “Their [environmentalists] fundamental point and approach still views human beings as the problem and seeks to curtail our ambitions: ‘What does ambition mean if we allow humanity to be represented as the biggest problem on the planet, rather than as creators of a better future...? If our ambition is to put nature first, humans come second. Period.' For those excited about the potential of humanity to shape the world, Williams' book is a refreshing and useful polemic.”

“For those excited about the potential of humanity to shape the world, Williams' book is a refreshing and useful polemic.” There is a constant theme of humanity ‘shaping the world’ – with no apparent realisation of just how dependent we are on nature.

There is a huge lack of knowledge out there! There is a huge lack of knowledge out there! Only with an understanding of the basic science will the community make the right decisions about these extremely important matters: Only with an understanding of the basic science will the community make the right decisions about these extremely important matters: the link between CO 2 emissions and CC the link between CO 2 emissions and CC energy and greenhouse emissions energy and greenhouse emissions ways to seriously reduce CO 2 emissions ways to seriously reduce CO 2 emissions So why science teachers?

the link between CO 2 emissions and CC: the link between CO 2 emissions and CC: – absorption of IR by CO 2 – effect of adding more CO 2 – feedback with H 2 O – other feedbacks (albedo, permafrost, clathrates) – evidence from palaeoclimate Why US?

energy and greenhouse emissions energy and greenhouse emissions – nature of fossil fuels (100 million years of sequestered carbon released in a few centuries) – relative amounts of energy used (phone charger versus driving to the shops!) – concentrated energy (coal, uranium) versus diffuse energy (solar, wind etc.) – original source of energy is what matters (hydrogen cars are no solution... unless) Why US?

ways to seriously reduce CO 2 emissions ways to seriously reduce CO 2 emissions – reduce energy use – renewable energy – nuclear energy – sequestration of CO 2 (from coal and air) Why US?

But is the science “settled”? Science is NEVER “settled”. That climate change is real and largely human caused is as about as settled as science gets. There is debate about the consequences, but the risk of inaction could be catastrophic. Many of the world’s major scientific bodies have issued statements urging strong immediate action and warning of dangerous consequences if not.

Some scientific bodies who have issued statements stressing the need for action on climate change USA: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) American Institute of Physics National Research Council Woods Hole Research Center Union of Concerned Scientists Federal Climate Change Science Program NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) American Geophysical Union Geological Society of America American Chemical Society - (world's largest scientific organization) Federal Climate Change Science Program - commissioned by Bush! American Association of State Climatologists US Geological Survey Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Pew Center on Climate Change

Rest of World: UN Project on Climate Variability and Predictability United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) United Nations Environment Program World Meteorological Organization International Council on Science The Royal Society (UK) Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS) Geological Society of London The Australian Academy of Sciences The Institution of Engineers Australia The Australian Meteorological And Oceanographic Society Some scientific bodies who have issued statements stressing the need for action on climate change

A number of groups of scientific organisations have issued ‘Joint Statements’ for example... Some scientific bodies who have issued statements stressing the need for action on climate change

Since 2005, the Academies of Science for the G8+5 countries have called on world leaders to limit the threat of climate change. We have advised prompt action to deal with the causes of climate change and cautioned that some climate impacts are inevitable. However, progress in reducing global greenhouse gas emission has been slow… Key vulnerabilities include water resources, food supply, health, coastal settlements and some ecosystems (particularly arctic, tundra, alpine, and coral reef). The most sensitive regions are likely to include the Arctic, Africa, small islands and the densely populated Asian mega-deltas. Adaptation Climate change is a pressing issue for today. Action on adaptation is needed now and failure to respond poses a significant risk.

Low Carbon Society The development of a low carbon society means not merely the replacement of energy sources with less carbon intensive ones, but energy conservation as well. Sustainable consumption requires fundamental changes in all sectors and levels of society, including energy-saving housing, low-carbon transportation and more efficient industrial processes. Conclusions Call on G8+5 governments …CCS demonstration plants. …improving predictive and adaptive capacities … supporting the developing world … Take appropriate economic and policy measures to accelerate transition to a low carbon society …changes in individual and national behaviour. Promote science and technology co- operation, innovation and leapfrogging, … Urge governments to support research on greenhouse gas reduction technologies and climate change impacts.

We recognise IPCC as the world’s most reliable source of information on climate change and its causes,… Despite increasing consensus on the science underpinning predictions of global climate change, doubts have been expressed … We do not consider such doubts justified....support the IPCC’s conclusion that it is at least 90% certain that temperatures will continue to rise, with average global surface temperature projected to increase by between 1.4 and 5.8 o C above 1990 levels by This increase will be accompanied by rising sea levels, more intense precipitation events in some countries, increased risk of drought in others, and adverse effects on agriculture, health and water resources. We urge everyone - individuals, businesses and governments - to take prompt action to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. The balance of the scientific evidence demands effective steps now to avert damaging changes to the earth’s climate.

Carbon dioxide concentration is rising mostly as a result of fossil-fuel burning and partly from clearing of vegetation; about 50% of the enhanced emissions remain in the atmosphere, … In the last 50 years atmospheric CO 2 concentration has been increasing at a rate much faster than any rates observed in the geological record of the past several thousand years. Global… temperatures are rising at a rapid rate to values higher than at any time in the last 400 (and probably in the last 1000) years. Once introduced in the atmosphere, carbon dioxide remains for at least a few hundred years and implies a lengthy guarantee of sustained future warming.

…there is adequate evidence from observations and interpretations of climate simulations to conclude that the atmosphere, ocean, and land surface are warming; that humans have significantly contributed to this change; and that further climate change will continue to have important impacts on human societies, on economies, on ecosystems, and on wildlife through the 21st century and beyond. … convergence among emission scenarios and model results suggest strongly that increasing air temperatures will reduce snowpack, shift snowmelt timing, reduce crop production and rangeland fertility, and cause continued melting of the ice caps and sea level rise… Policy choices in the near future will determine the extent of the impacts of climate change. Policy decisions are seldom made in a context of absolute certainty. Some continued climate change is inevitable, and the policy debate should also consider the best ways to adapt to climate change. Prudence dictates extreme care in managing our relationship with the only planet known to be capable of sustaining human life.

“When climate scientists like me explain to people what we do for a living we are increasingly asked whether we "believe in climate change". Quite simply it is not a matter of belief. Our concerns about climate change arise from the scientific evidence that humanity's activities are leading to changes in our climate. The scientific evidence is overwhelming.” Dr Vicky Pope is the head of climate change advice at the Met Office Hadley Centre guardian.co.uk, Wed 11 February 2009

Are the public convinced? Obviously not! The ‘deniers’ in the media have a strong presence... The science is “settled” but...

Last sentence in Plimer’s book: “Human stupidity is only exceeded by God’s mercy, which is infinite” A hint of where he is really coming from? Remember Heartland?

The science is “settled” but... Plimer says “the climate has always changed” – we just have to get used to it. “If we humans, in a fit of ego, think we can change these normal planetary processes, then we need stronger medication.”

The science is “settled” but... Laureate Professor Peter Doherty’s response: Really scary – climate change can happen easily and is disastrous for life on Earth, so why would we risk triggering another?

The actual SCIENCE has almost no presence in the media. Consequently most people just – “don’t know” – “aren’t convinced” – “it’s debatable” – “don’t want to know” The science is “settled” but...

There are heaps of serious looking websites which claim that climate change is – not happening – happening but it’s not us – happening but we’ll adapt – a conspiracy between scientists and greenies/lefties – etc. The science is “settled” but...

So – While there are a few scientific ‘sceptics’... a lot of non-scientific ‘deniers’... not to mention an army of vested interest lobbyists... the vast majority of climate scientists are agreed – humans are causing dangerous CC. The science is “settled” but...

Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences of the USA. Some headings: On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system Global warming: Stop worrying, start panicking? Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system (next slide)

Potential tipping points in the climate system (Lenton et.al. PNAS Feb 2008)

But this science is not getting through to either the public or the politicians! How is it going to get through given the very strong lobby groups against it? This is where we come in Who else?

There is a serious mismatch between the science and community understanding As Hansen said “there is an acute need for science to inform society about the costs of failure to address global warming” This is a problem unlike any event ever before encountered in human history The science is “settled” but...

This is a problem unlike any ever before encountered in human history: 1.By the time the problem is ‘obvious’ it will be way too late to avoid catastrophic change 2.We have always felt there was no way we could effect the whole Earth system 3.It’s comprehension requires some basic understanding of science. 4.The changes needed require a BIG RETHINK of the way we do things (But definitely NOT ‘turning back the clock’) The science is “settled” but...

Consequently, the urgency of the message does not seem to be getting through. It needs the backing of a large group of people with some sort of credibility – science teachers maybe? The science is “settled” but...

As science teachers we could be the best link between the scientists and the public. – and the politicians? The science is “settled” but...

Educate other teachers – how? Educate the public – talk to local parent groups, write for local papers... Organise a statement signed by science teachers? Talk to politicians – as individuals – as teacher organisations – on behalf of our students. (With our students?) ?? What can we do?

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