1 PLAN Introduction De l’attente de débats à la découverte d’une institution (AD) Le WCRP. Historique et présentation (HG) La conférence de Denver (AD) Principaux sujets abordés Quelques tensions apparentes à la conférence du WCRP (HG) Les services climatiques (AD) Nouveau mot d’ordre du WCRP Les stratégies de modélisation du climat en question. Sur un « position paper » (HG)

2 Programme « Balsamine » sur l’analyse de la mousson indienne Participation LMD - CNES au programme MONEX du GARP

3 The Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) project (1985–1994) established the physical basis for the understanding and prediction of El Niño temperature signals and associated changes in global climate. This led to a major breakthrough in operational seasonal climate forecasting. The World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) (1982–2002), the biggest and most successful global ocean research programme to date,collected observations of the world’s oceans of unprecedented quality and coverage and led to the development of important new ocean observing techniques and improved understanding of physical processes in the ocean.

4 The Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) project The World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) (1982–2002),. Led to improved understanding of tropical ocean-atmosphere climate interactions. Established seasonal climate predictability First complete baseline observation of the global ocean and its circulation. Established sustained global ocean observations.

5 Today the WCRP consists of four major core projects: Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) since 1995 Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) since 1979 Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) since 1992 Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) since 2000

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10 Beyond the boudaries Rockstrom, 2009

11 “ There is a clear need for an internationally coordinated and holistic approach to Earth system science that integrates natural and social sciences from regional to the global scale.” (ESSP review, 2008) From: Disciplinary Research Strongest Emphasis on Natural Sciences To: Disciplinary,Interdisciplinary &Transdisciplinary Full Range of Sciences and Humanities Earth System Sustainability Initiative (ESSI)

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13 THE CHALLENGE OF INTRODUCING THE HUMAN DIMENSION IN EARTH SYSTEM MODELS Nobre et al, BAMS, 2010

14 ELEMENTS OF A COMPLEX EARTH SYSTEM ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION SYSTEM, AND THE COMPUTATIONAL REQUIREMENT

15 “Actionable Science” « Data, analysis, and forecasts that are sufficiently predictive, accepted and understandable to support decision-making, including capital investment decision-making » « End-to-end », « users-need-driven » science… « From basic research to decision support » « Global Framework for Climate Services » (World Climate Conference 3, WMO Geneva 2009) « Provide timely climate information on global and regional scale to all people »

16 Dessai Hulme 2004 « Top-down » and « bottom-up » approach to inform climate adaptation policy

17 Structure of Climate Service

18 Structure of Climate Service

19 Alphabet Hydrological Soup: OrganizaOons, Instruments, Satellites, Programs CLIVAR, GEWEX, CLIC, GRACE, GEO ‐ CAPE, PATH, SMAP, SWAT, GPM, SWPP/NPOESS, GACM, GPSRO, DESDynI, ICESat ‐ II, NWIS, ARM, AQUASTAT, GRDC, TRMM, IGRAC, CUASHI, GRDI, GLDAS, GFCS, CHyMP, JAXA/GCOM ‐ W, CNES/ ISRO, EUMETSAT’s MetOp, NOAA’s POES, JPSS, DMSP, DWSS, GMI, DPR, ESA SMOS, USGCRP, GOOS, ICSU, IGBP, IHDP, ESSP, ESSI… FHSWTBCKTOAOTA (“for heavens sake, who the bleep can keep track of all of these acronyms?”)

20 CMIP 5: Long-Term Set of Climate Experiments

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22 Jule Charney ( )

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