Probability To be or not to be!!!. Total Chance of Dying The two inevitable truths of life – Death and taxes – If you don’t pay taxes directly you pay.

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Presentation transcript:

Probability To be or not to be!!!

Total Chance of Dying The two inevitable truths of life – Death and taxes – If you don’t pay taxes directly you pay on purchased items. – What is the current tax rate on a purchase in Wisconsin. And death – You have a 1 in 1 chance of dying – 100%

Me You Some day!

Lifetime odds of death for selected causes, United States, 2008* Cancer 1 in 7 Stroke 1 in 29 Motor vehicle incidents 1 in 98 Intentional self-harm 1 in 109 Unintentional poisoning by and exposure to noxious substances 1 in 126 Assault by firearm 1 in 321 Pedestrian 1 in 701 Motorcycle rider 1 in 761 Accidental drowning and submersion 1 in 1,103 Exposure to smoke, and flames 1 in 1,344

Lifetime odds of death for selected causes, United States, 2008* Pedalcyclist 1 in 4,381 Air and space transport incidents 1 in 7,178 Exposure to electric current, radiation, temperature, and pressure 1 in 12,420 Exposure to excessive natural heat 1 in 13,217 Cataclysmic storm 1 in 29,196 Contact with hornets, wasps, and bees 1 in 79,842 Earthquake and other earth movements 1 in 97,807 Legal execution 1 in 111,779 Lightning 1 in 134,906 Bitten or struck by dog 1 in 144,899 Flood 1 in 558,896 Fireworks discharge 1 in 652,046 Source: National Safety Council estimates based on data from National

Putting this in real numbers…. United States population in 2008 was __________ How many died from cancer, intentional harm, fire arms, and flood? Probability x population = real numbers Milwaukee population in 2008 was ________ How many died from cancer, intentional harm, fire arms, and flood? Probability x population = real numbers

Sumprobability (fractional)probability (percentage) 21/362.78% 32/365.56% 43/368.33% 54/ % 65/ % 76/ % 85/ % 94/ % 103/368.33% 112/365.56% 121/362.78% TOTAL36/36100% Probabilities of a sum given a single roll of two dice

Probability in your life… The U.S weather service defines several verbal probabilities: slight chance - 20% probability chance % probability likely % probability no qualifier % probability

Graphical way of showing probability There are several graphical ways to portray both probabilities and probability distributions. Graphical ways of showing probabilities Bar Pie chart Number line Graphical ways of showing probability distributions Bar chart Distribution probability Cumulative percent

More Causes of Death… Cause of death Aids/HIV infection Airplane Crash Alcoholic Liver Disease Car Crash Earthquake Falls Flood Food Poisoning Heart disease Homicide Suicide Probability 1 in 19,000 1 in 2,736,000 1 in 22,000 1 in to 1 in 40,000,000 1 in 20,688 1 In 6,700,000 1 in 53,000 1 in in in 9350

WARNING !!!! One common source of confusion is that probabilities are represented in many differing ways all – all meaning the same thing. Probabilities can be represented as a ratio, percentage, fraction or as a decimal

Take a moment… What factors must be measured before you can determine a probability of how likely you will be happy in life? What factors must be measured before you can determine a probability of how likely you will be a grandparent someday?