Study Goal:  Perform a “bottom-up” assessment of the sustained peaking capacity of the Pacific Northwest Hydro System over the highest 18 hours in a 3 day cold snap or heat wave. Study Purposes:  Inform hydro utilities’ resource planning efforts  Assure consistent assumptions are used for individual sustained hydro peaking studies, such as assumed flows on common tributaries;  Provide a check of the GENESYS-based Regional Sustained Hydro Peaking Capability result; and  Help assure consistent reporting of hydro capacity to the Western Electricity Coordinating Council’s Loads and Resources Subcommittee (WECC LRS) and the Pacific Northwest Utilities Conference Committee (PNUCC). 1 Don Long Services st Ave SE - Ephrata WA 98823

Phase II Deliverables:  Develop a model in the form of a spreadsheet template to approximate the operation of each utility’s hydro facilities during sustained peaking operations.  Gather project data for modeling and studies from utilities who have chosen to do their own modeling  Fill in Technical Exhibit D.1 for all projects.  Determine if critical month results and adverse month results are appropriate for estimating the regions firm and sustained hydro capabilities  Aggregate purchase assumptions for all utilities to check whether they are in aggregate for the Region consistent with the assumptions in the PNW Resource Adequacy Standard  Prepare a description of the final methodology to allow the analysis to be a repeatable process 2 Don Long Services st Ave SE - Ephrata WA 98823

Status of model development:  Initial approach was to use tables of project Flow vs Generation and Head, Forebay vs Reservoir Content and Flow, Tailwater vs Flow and Downstream Project Forebay, and Maximum MW vs Head. Macros would then do the table lookups.  Found that Excel didn’t seem to like 4 table-lookup macros x 96 hours.  Re-wrote model to use best-fit equations for Flow, Forebay, Tailwater and Maximum MW. Equations have been developed and approved by project owners for Wells, Rocky Reach, Wanapum and Priest Rapids.  Modeling of Wells is complete.  Modeling of other Mid-Columbia projects is on hold pending receipt of information for Chelan Falls project. 3 Don Long Services st Ave SE - Ephrata WA 98823

Issues Raised and Resolved 1. Which 18 hours?  In January, the absolute highest hours are 7 hours on the first day, 5 hours on the second day, and 6 hours on the third day.  In July, the absolute highest hours are 8 hours on the first day, 4 hours on the second day, and 6 hours on the third day.  The Statement of Work states that the 6 highest hours each day for the consecutive 3 days will be used to determine Sustained Hydro Peaking Capacity.  Even though there may be some hours that have higher load, the original definition will be used. 4 Don Long Services st Ave SE - Ephrata WA 98823

Issues Raised and Resolved 1.Which 18 hours? (cont). 5 Don Long Services st Ave SE - Ephrata WA 98823

Issues Raised and Resolved 2. Which July Years  Confusion arose as to which Calendar Years the July water conditions included  The Statement of Work clearly states the following:  July Critical Water Conditions – July of Calendar Year 1944  July Adverse Water Conditions – July of Calendar Year 1979  July Average Water Conditions – July of Calendar Year Don Long Services st Ave SE - Ephrata WA 98823

Preliminary Model Results: 1. Douglas County PUD – Wells Dam Adverse Conditions (Jan ‘93) One unit out of service. Able to meet load shape. 7 Don Long Services st Ave SE - Ephrata WA 98823

Preliminary Model Results: 2. Douglas County PUD – Wells Dam Average Conditions (Jul ‘35) One unit out of service. Needed to add surplus sales and spill to pass inflow from CHJ 8 Don Long Services st Ave SE - Ephrata WA 98823

Preliminary Model Results: 3. Sample Utility – July 1944 (Critical Water) Peak = Forecasted 2012 System Peak Load 9 Don Long Services st Ave SE - Ephrata WA 98823

Preliminary Model Results: 3. Sample Utility – July 1944 (Critical Water) Should Load Shape Multiplier be reduced to where there is an hour with no deficit? 10 Don Long Services st Ave SE - Ephrata WA 98823

Preliminary Model Results: 3. Sample Utility – July 1944 (Critical Water) Should Load Shape Multiplier be reduced to where there is an hour with no deficit, ignoring Gas Peakers? 11 Don Long Services st Ave SE - Ephrata WA 98823

Status of Utilities Doing Their Own Modeling:  Avista – Cabinet Gorge, Post Falls, Noxon Rapids, Little Falls, Long Lake, Monroe Street, Nine Mile, Upper Falls. Nothing received  Eugene – Carmen, Leaburg, Stone Creek, Trail Bridge, Walterville. Nothing received  Idaho Power – American Falls, Bliss, Brownlee, CJ Strike, Hells Canyon, Lower Malad, Lower Salmon, Milner, Oxbow, Shoshone Falls, Swan Falls, Thousand Springs, Twin Falls, Upper Malad, Upper Salmon. Studies received for hydro system totals. Need breakdown by project  PacifiCorp – Copco 1, Copco 2, Irongate, East Side, John Boyle, Ashton, Cove, Grace, Oneida, Soda, Clearwater, Fish Creek, Lemolo1, Lemolo 2, Slide Creek, Soda Springs, Toketee, Powerdale, Prospect 1, Prospect 2, Prospect 3, Prospect 4, Bend Power, Cline Falls, Eagle Point, Wallowa Falls, Big Fork, Condit, Merwin, Swift 1. Nothing received  Portland – Bull Run, Faraday, North Fork, Oak Grove, Oregon City, Pelton, River Mill, Round Butte. Studies received but not yet reviewed 12 Don Long Services st Ave SE - Ephrata WA 98823

Status of Utilities Doing Their Own Modeling (cont.):  Puget – Electron, Nooksack, Snoqualmie 1&2, Lower Baker, Upper Baker. Nothing received  Seattle – Boundary, Cedar Falls, Newhalem Cr, Diablo, Gorge, Ross. Nothing received  Tacoma – Alder, Cushman 1, Cushman 2, LaGrande, Mayfield, Mossyrock, Wynoochee. Nothing received, but have communicated that they will be working on it soon.  Federal System – Study results received, but need additional information to verify consistency with Statement of Work methodology 13 Don Long Services st Ave SE - Ephrata WA 98823

Status of Utilities For Whom Contractor is Doing the Modeling:  Chelan County PUD – Chelan Falls Nothing received, Rock Island Data received, modeling equations being developed, Rocky Reach Modeling equations developed, waiting for Chelan Falls data  Centralia, City of – Yelm Completed  Douglas County PUD – Wells Completed  Fall River REA – Felt Contact made. Waiting for additional data  Grant County PUD – Priest Rapids, Wanapum. Modeling equations developed, waiting for Chelan Falls data  Lewis County PUD – Cowlitz Falls. Contact made. Waiting for data  PPL Montana – Black Eagle, Cochrane, Hauser Lake, Holter, Kerr, Madison, Morony, Mystic Lake, Rainbow, Ryan, Thompson Falls. Most of the necessary data received for Kerr and Thompson Falls. Waiting for remaining data on Kerr and Thompson Falls, plus all data for other projects. 14 Don Long Services st Ave SE - Ephrata WA 98823

Status of Utilities For Whom Contractor is Doing the Modeling:  Pend Oreille – Box Canyon Contact person established. No direct contact made.  Snohomish County PUD – HM Jackson Completed  Bonners Ferry – Moyie Falls Contact made. Waiting for data  Energy NW – Packwood Data received. Analysis pending.  City of Idaho Falls – Contact person established. No direct contact made.  Twin Falls – Twin Falls Hydro. Contact made. Waiting for data  Warm Springs Tribe – Pelton Rereg. – Contact not yet attempted 15 Don Long Services st Ave SE - Ephrata WA 98823