Climate Test Bed THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED Climate Community Climate Community Research & Development Research & Development NOAA Climate Forecast Operations NOAA Climate Forecast Operations Mission: Mission: to accelerate the transition of research and development into improved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products, and applications. 01 November 2005

2 MotivationMotivation CTB RoleCTB Role FrameworkFramework –Infrastructure –Transition Projects & Science Priorities OrganizationOrganization 1 st CTB Annual Meeting1 st CTB Annual Meeting –Objectives; Expected Outcome THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED

3 MOTIVATION (Scientific) – –NCEP has developed and tested a new fully coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS) for use in S/I applications that shows considerable promise. – –The CFS is a significant step forward in forecasting ENSO related SST variability, having achieved at least parity with statistical forecasts. –Faster –Faster development of NOAA climate forecast systems is needed to improve on these forecasts and to provide more useful climate forecast products and applications. – accelerate –Supporting NOAA climate forecast systems for use by climate researchers is an optimal way to leverage the expertise of NOAA and the external community in order to accelerate the necessary improvements.

4 Skill in SST Anomaly Prediction Niño 3.4 (DJF 97/98 – DJF 03/04)

5 MOTIVATION (Programmatic) – –In order to achieve the blend of internal and external efforts required to improve NOAA operational climate forecast systems, a Climate Test Bed (CTB) facility has been organized. – –The CTB will traction and visibilityprovide more traction and visibility to intraseasonal-to-decadal climate research by accelerating the transition to NOAA climate forecast operations; operational testing environmentprovide an operational testing environment to support projects that result in a direct influence on NOAA climate forecast operations; infrastructure and resourcesprovide infrastructure and resources for (long term, AO-driven, community-wide) projects on broader research issues affecting NOAA climate forecast operations.

6 CTB ROLE What does the CTB bring that’s genuinely new? – –A Focus on Transition – –A Means of Engagement for the research, operations and applications communities – –A Mechanism for Distribution of Models & Data.

7 A FOCUS ON TRANSITION In order to accelerate improvements the CTB must define a process to: – –Identify and communicate the scope of responsibilities for the Research (R), Operations (O), and Applications (A) communities. – –Identify and delineate different types of transition: R2O: define where O picks up responsibility, and at what juncture a "hand-off" from R occurs. O2A: define where A picks up responsibility, and at what juncture a “hand-off” from O occurs. – –Identify resources for R, O and A to ensure smooth transitions.

Research and Development NCEPNCEP O2A User Community R2O 1.Large “volume” of R&D, funded through AOs, Agency Labs… 2Smaller set of R&D products suitable for operations. 3.Systematic transition steps R2O. 4. Systematic transition steps O2A 5.Delivery to diverse USER community Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process NCEP is uniquely positioned to provide an operational infrastructure for the transition process 5 Operations

9 RESEARCH TO OPERATIONS GUIDELINES ( Pan et al. ) The Path to implementation of changes in the NCEP operational climate model suite consists of the following steps: – –Model development and refinement – –Preliminary assessment – –Calibration – –Interface with operations – –Final skill assessment – –Parallel tests – –Approval Roles of host (research) institution and the operational center must be clear for each step to ensure smooth transitions. Resources are needed for both the research and operations communities to ensure smooth transitions.

10 OPERATIONS TO APPLICATIONS GUIDELINES The path for implementation of operational tools in CPCs consolidated seasonal forecasts consists of the following steps: – –Retroactive runs for each tool (hindcasts) – –Assigning weights to each tool; – –Systematic error correction – –Specific output variables (T2m & precip for US; SST & Z500 for global) – –Available in real-time Need to identify and refine steps for other types of O2A – –Delivering models and data to the community; NOMADS Server – –Regional applications of NOAA climate forecasts (energy, agriculture, H2O resources, fire Wx) Roles of the operational center and the applications community must be clear for each step to ensure smooth transitions. Resources are needed for both the operations and applications communities to ensure smooth transitions.

11 A MEANS OF ENGAGEMENT Collaboration with the climate community is key: – –Broaden membership on CTB SAB, CST, OB and Transition Project Teams; include private sector and international members – –Expand collaborative transition projects (AO’s) – –Expand CTB System and Science Support Teams, and Visiting Scientist Program – –Develop meaningful partnerships with various NOAA line offices, other agencies and external stakeholders.

12 CTB LINKS TO OTHER PROGRAMS CLIVAR, GEWEX and Joint CLIVAR – GEWEX ProgramsCLIVAR, GEWEX and Joint CLIVAR – GEWEX Programs U.S. (NOAA Climate and Global Change Program - CDEP, CPPA, CLIVAR) International (WCRP VAMOS [NAME, MESA, VOCALS], AMMA) CLIVAR Climate Process and modeling Teams (CPTs)CLIVAR Climate Process and modeling Teams (CPTs) NASA-NOAA-DOD Joint Center for Satellite Data AssimilationNASA-NOAA-DOD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation Provides atmosphere, ocean, land surface data assimilation infrastructure Improved use of satellite data (Climate applications, reanalysis issues, observing system stability) Support Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF)Support Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) GFDL and NCEP codes are becoming ESMF compatible Other Agencies (DOE, NASA, USDA, etc)Other Agencies (DOE, NASA, USDA, etc)

13 CTB LINKS TO NOAA OGP CLIVAR, GEWEX and Joint CLIVAR – GEWEX Programs – –CPPA Climate Process and modeling Teams (NAME –warm season precip forecasts) Drought monitoring and prediction ( LDAS - soil moisture; NIDIS) Hydrologic prediction (H2O Resource Mgmt) – –CLIVAR Pacific Predictability of climate variability (ENSO, MJO, AO) in CFS/GFS on ISI timescales – –CLIVAR Atlantic Predictability of Atlantic Marine ITCZ & related rainfall in CFS/GFS on ISI timescales CDEP ARCS / IRI Seasonal climate forecast products / tools (drought, agriculture, fire applications) Multi-model ensembles (FY06) Quantification of predictability

14 CTB FRAMEWORK InfrastructureInfrastructure – –Computing Support (1/3 rd NOAA “Red” Research Computer) – –System and Science Support Teams (models, data, diagnostics) Contractors, Technical Assistants, System Administrators – –Management and Administrative Staff Director, Deputy, Secretary, Program Assistant Transition ProjectsTransition Projects –Base (internally) Funded Short Term – potential for impact on operations in 2 years or less FTE’s reallocated from NCEP and other line offices –Announcements of Opportunity Long term – potential for impact on operations in 2 or more years Projects are reviewed, competitive, community wide, broader science issues NOAA or external lead PIs Multi-agency (NOAA, NASA, DOE, etc)

15 CURRENT CTB RESOURCES NCEP ContributionsNCEP Contributions – –Computing Support (1/3 of the NOAA Red Computer) – –23 Redirected FTEs Management Team – 0.5 (CPC) & 0.25 (EMC) & 0.25 (CPC) System Support Team (data, software) – 4 (CPC) & 0.5 (EMC) Science Support (Transition Project Teams) – 16 (CPC) & 4 (EMC) NOAA Climate Program OfficeNOAA Climate Program Office – –Augmentation funding for CTB Infrastructure (System Support TA in FY05, FY06); Additional funding for near term and competitive transition projects. – –CDEP/CTB AO-driven competitive science projects (FY06+)

16 CTB CURRENT AND FUTURE TRANSITION PROJECTS Current (FY05 and FY06) – “Short Term plans”Current (FY05 and FY06) – “Short Term plans” – –Assessments of the Current Version of NCEP CFS/GFS – –Objective Model Consolidation for Generating Official Forecasts – –Development of a Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System (Set up GFDL S/I hindcast system on NCEP computer; reproducibility tests) Future (FY07 +) – “Long Term plans”Future (FY07 +) – “Long Term plans” – –Assessments of the Next (n+1) Version of NCEP CFS/GFS – –Development of a Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System – –Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System – –Drought Monitoring and Prediction – Support NIDIS – –Development of Regional Application Products (e.g. Energy, Agriculture, Water, Fire Wx) – –Advanced Forecast Capabilities (e.g. Ecosystems; Air Chemistry; Carbon Cycle; Fisheries)

17 ASSESSMENTS OF THE NEXT (n+1) VERSION OF THE CFS/GFS Possible Upgrades for the next (n+1) version of CFS/GFS are coming into focus: – –Land: Couple Noah LSM to CFS – –Ocean: MOM4 – –Resolution: T126 – –Physics: Convective parameterization; Multi-physics ensemble Comprehensive diagnostic evaluation of future changes to CFS/GFS are needed prior to implementation. Concerted effort to distribute CFS/GFS data sets to the community. Caveat: Less emphasis on evaluation of older versions of the CFS/GFS in favor of the newer version(s).

18 DEVELOPMENT OF A MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM NOAA/CTB is a natural lead to develop the strategy for a MM Ensemble Prediction System. CTB can coordinate "National" models that contribute to accelerated improvements in S/I climate predictions and projections, both in real-time products and with research that contributes to the CCSP and IPCC. “National” models are global ocean-atmosphere coupled models: NCEP/CFS GFDL/CM2 NASA/GEOS 5 NSF/CCSM CTB can coordinate with any of several Multi-Model projects around the world (e.g. European Euro-SIP and the Asian APCC). The roles and responsibilities of the host institutions and the operational center(s) must be clearly spelled out, commensurate with resources, to ensure smooth transitions.

19 ONGOING ANALYSIS OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM CTB can promote and coordinate synthesis of ongoing (oceanic, terrestrial and atmospheric) reanalysis activities within NOAA, across agencies and internationally. Benefits: – –NOAA Can take full advantage of established CTB infrastructure (e.g. SAB, OB, teams, computer). – –Can coordinate and provide resources for (long term, AO-driven, community-wide) projects on broader issues related to climate reanalysis that contribute to improved understanding of climate variability and change and enhance climate prediction. Management: – –Project Manager for Interagency Coordination and a Program Manager to coordinate reanalysis activities within NOAA, across agencies, and internationally.

20 DROUGHT MONITORING AND PREDICTION Proposal: Designate the GAPP Core Project and its external R&D collaborators as the “Climate Process Team” for Land on the CTB Activities: Couple Noah LSM to T126 version of CFS; Calibrate Multi-Model Ensembles for Hydrologic Forecasts Development of a Drought Early Warning System. Benefits: Coordinate with Operational Drought Monitoring and Prediction Support NIDIS Consistent with NWS Integrated Water Science Plan

CTB ORGANIZATION Director Higgins (CPC) Deputies Pan (EMC) & Gelman (CPC) Program Manager Ji (OGP) Test Bed Users Science / Software Support from Contractors; TA’s, SA’s Oversight Board CPC CDC EMC GFDL IRI NCPO Climate Science Team EMC CPC CDC GFDL NASA NCAR OST OCCWS COLA IRI EMC GFDL CPC CDC (Focal Points) Science Advisory Board

22 TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR OB, CST, AND SAB Oversight Board (OB):Oversight Board (OB): –Makes recommendations to Directors of NOAA Climate Office and NCEP concerning the CTB activities. Climate Science Team (CST):Climate Science Team (CST): –Guides CTB activities at the working level; evaluates results of CTB activities; makes recommendations to the CTB management on computing resource usage and access Science Advisory Board (SAB):Science Advisory Board (SAB): –Works with the broader climate community to provide “independent” expert advice on high-priority scientific challenges; coordinates with other programs (e.g., CLIVAR, GEWEX) Complete ToR and Responsibilities are on the CTB Website: ToR and Responsibilities are on the CTB Website:

23 CTB FY05 ACCOMPLISHMENTS Q1 – Annual Operating Plan (4 CTB NTOP’s) Q1 – CFS Assessment Meeting (WWB/NCEP, November 16, 2004) Established 7 CTB Transition Project Teams: Model parameterization, Model sensitivity Assessments Climate data assimilation (ocean and land) Multi-model ensembles Climate products and applications Q2 – Initiated CTB Infrastructure (System and Science Support Teams) Q2 – Established OB, CST and SAB Q2 – Implemented CTB website Q2 – CTB ToR, “White Paper” and Transition to Operations Plan Q3 – CDEP / CTB Competitive Transition Projects AO

24 CTB MILESTONES (FY06) CTB Science Priorities and Transition Plan (2 nd Draft) Support external CTB users to the extent resources are available Set up GFDL S/I hindcast system on NCEP computer and begin to test reproducibility of data compared to runs on GFDL computer Complete availability of twice-daily CFS data on publicly accessible server Upgrade the seasonal forecast consolidation tool to improve its use of skill information Contribute to Science and Implementation Plan for ongoing analysis of the climate system

25 CTB PROVISIONAL MILESTONES (FY07-FY11) Assessment of next version of the NCEP CFS/GFS Complete experimental testing of tier-1 multi-model ensemble forecast system (EMC+GFDL) Transition NASA model to CTB Transition CCSM (NCAR) model to CTB Complete experimental testing of tier-1 multi-model ensemble forecast system (EMC+GFDL+CCSM+NASA) Drought monitoring and seasonal prediction for NIDIS with multi-models via NLDAS

26 The CTB “Message” The NOAA CTB will: Enhance a cooperative partnership between NOAA operational and research centers and the broader external research and applications communities by providing an operational testing facility that facilitates smooth transitions. Deliver opportunities for goal directed research using the Climate Forecast System, other climate models, and a state of the art multi-model ensemble approach to improving climate prediction. Accelerate the transition of research advances into enhanced NOAA operational climate forecasts, products and applications. Increase the range and scope of applications, and the economic benefit, of operational climate forecasts for policy-making and decision-making by end users.

27 1 st CTB ANNUAL MEETING OBJECTIVES – –Engage the community in a discussion of CTB progress and plans; – –Discuss & improve the strategy for collaboration with the community; – –Gather independent expert advice on future CTB science priorities. Overall Goal: to help focus the community towards the CTB mission and objectives

28 1 st CTB ANNUAL MEETING AGENDA – –Oral Sessions ( 6-30 minute talks each) Climate Model Assessments (CFS/GFS) (Mon AM) Multi Model Ensembles (Mon PM) Climate Forecasts and Applications (Tue AM) – –Poster Session (Mon AM) – –Science Advisory Board / Oversight Board Meeting (Mon PM)

29 EXPECTED OUTCOME – –Independent expert advice on CTB FY07+ Science Priorities (SAB written Summary Report) – –Update CTB “Science Priorities and Transition Plan” (CTB Management) – –CTB Annual Report (CTB Management) – –Provide guidance to participating agencies and institutions