Climate Change Risks, Implications and Recommendations for Adaptation: Climate Change Risks, Implications and Recommendations for Adaptation: The case of Lower Usuthu Smallholder Irrigation Project (LUSIP), Swaziland. Ray M. Gama & Musa Masilela

LUSIP IN BRIEF The Lower Usuthu Smallholder Irrigation Project (LUSIP) is a Government of Swaziland poverty alleviation initiative. located in the Lower Usuthu river basin with a catchment area of 12, 559 km 2. The project will achieve this goal by transforming the local economy from rain-fed subsistence farming into sustainable commercial irrigated agriculture. Main infrastructure – geared to harvest wet season flows to irrigate approx 11,500ha in (6,500ha-phase 1 and 5,000ha-phase 2).

OBJECTIVES Swaziland is affected adversely by climate change already. However, it is not known by how much. This paper aims to: 1. collate available information on climate change impacts, with particular emphasis on LUSIP smallholder agriculture, and 2.Make recommendations for the project

FINDINGS – relevant to LUSIP There is consensus among climate scientists on the general outlines of climate change, however there is much less agreement on how climate change will affect a given location (e.g. LUSIP Smallholder Farming). There will be a 4% decrease in annual runoff in the Usuthu River Basin (Matondo et. al., 2004). Food production is expected to decrease as a consequence of the projected water shortages (Mabuza et. al., 2007).

FINDINGS – relevant to LUSIP On a dry-year condition the LUSIP reservoir will not fill up but a live storage level will be reached (Mhlanga, 2010). There will be no serious challenges to meeting the gross demand for the project at current scenarios.

FINDINGS – relevant to LUSIP Using the HaDCM3, model, both the 2050 A2 and B2 Potential Soil Moisture deficiency projections: Area around Siphofaneni and Big Bend (LUSIP development area) will lie in two regions projected to have soil moisture deficiency of 700 – 800mm and 800 – 900mm compared to the current 600 – 700 and 700 – 800mm, respectively. (Knox et. al., 2010).

FINDINGS – relevant to LUSIP/ Projected impacts on Irrigation > LUSIP – popular crop at the moment is irrigated sugar cane. >To produce a unit weight of sucrose equivalent to current optimum levels of production, future irrigation needs were predicted to increase by 20–22% (Knox et. al., 2010).

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS Strict water management and sustainable land uses are important issues to be considered and factored into all planning and management regimes in the project area. e.g. A real time water management system Development of a capacity building framework for local Farmers. Use of water saving crops other than cropping the whole PDA with sugarcane. This also in line with the current LUSIP diversification strategy.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS Irrigation water rationing - During dry season when there is zero diversion and reservoir levels are low, rationing of water can be an option until the following wet season when floods occurs. The agro forestry initiatives proposed by some communities need to be upscaled.

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