ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments Climate Risk Management in River Basins River basin approach to climate resiliency Climate hazards affecting river basins in Tajikistan Assets at risk in river basins Tajikistan Risk assessment methodology for river basins Pilot risk assessments in the Pyanj and Vakhsh river basins

ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments River Basin Approach to Climate Resiliency Objective Identify sustainable adaptations that will protect water dependent assets (communities, infrastructure, ecosystems) against unfavourable hydrological changes caused by climate change

ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments River Basins and Sub-Basins ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments Alexander, please use bright red colour for the sub-basin boundaries

ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments Potential Climate Changes and Hazards Affecting River Basins Climate ChangeClimate Hazard Higher temperature Increased melting of snow and glaciers ~ Glacier retreat ~ Glacier surging; glacial lake bursts ~ Increased summer flows initially ~ Reduced summer flows ultimately Longer growing season ~ Increased water demand for irrigation Increased demand for hydropower for air conditioning More rain Flash floods Reduced water demand for irrigation Less snow Less snowmelt Glacier retreat More evapo-transpiration Increased water demand for irrigation

ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments Assets At Risk in River Basins in Tajikistan CommunitiesInfrastructureEcosystems Natural PeopleRoadsGlacial HousesBridgesAlpine MosquesFactoriesWetland SchoolsRiver intakesSavannah ClinicsPumping stationsLoess terrace MarketsCanals and drainsConiferous forest OrchardsFlood embankmentsDeciduous forest Vegetable gardensDams and reservoirsHigh arid plateau Government officesHydropower stationsMan-made Urban Pasture Irrigated crops+trees Rainfed crops+trees

ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments Principal Ecosystems in the Pyanj and Vakhsh River Basins

ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments Towns and Villages in the Pyanj and Vakhsh River Basins

ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments Main Roads in the Pyanj and Vakhsh River Basins

ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments Risk Assessment Methodology for River Basins Definition Impact Low (L)  No loss of life or houses  Minor damage to land and infrastructure  Minor temporary social and economic disruption  Responses include emergency services & minor remedial investments by village and District councils  Total damage less than US$ Medium (M)  No loss of life  Temporary loss of houses  Significant damage to land and infrastructure  Significant social and economic disruption  Responses include emergency services & substantial remedial investments by village and District councils with additional support from central Government  Total cost between US$ 100,000 and US$ High (H)  Loss of life  Destruction of houses;  Destruction of to land and infrastructure  Serious social and economic disruption  Responses include national, provincial and district emergency services, international assistance, & major remedial investments by national Government with international assistance  Total cost greater than US$ Frequency Low (L)  More than 10 years between events Medium (M)  5-10 years between events High (H)  Less than 5 years between events Lena, this table has already been translated for the Mid-Term Report

ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments Risk = Frequency x Impact Impact Low L Medium M High M Frequency Low L LL Very Low Risk LM Low Risk LH Medium Risk Medium M ML Low Risk MM Medium Risk MH High Risk High H HL Medium Risk HM High Risk HH Very High Risk Lena, this table has already been translated for the Mid-Term Report

ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments Pilot Risk Assessments in the Pyanj and Vakhsh River Basins Based on hazard data and projections provided by: Committee for Emergency Situations and Civil Defence State Administration for Hydrometeorology FOCUS ACTED Government Ministries District Councils Community Leaders Field visits by the consultants

ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments Climate Change Risk Indices Risk Index 1 = Frequency (H, M, L) of Hazard and Impact (H, M, L) on Asset Risk Index 2 = % Probability ( >20%, 10-20%, <10%) of Hazard multiplied by % of total of Asset at risk in basin

ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments District Climate Change Risk Assessment using Risk Index 1 Asset Kulyab District Dagana Jamoat (mudflow) Vanch District, Ravand jamoat (mudflow, flash flood, river flood) FrequencyImpactRiskFrequencyImpactRisk Households HLHLHMHM People HLHLHMHM Houses HLHLHMHM Schools LLLLHMHM Clinics HMHMHM Area ha HHHHMMMM Power lines km MMMMHMHM Phone Lines km MLMLHLHL Hydraulic structures MLMLML Flood Embankments km HMHMHHHH Irrigation canals km MMMMMM Bridges MMMM Roads km MLMLHHHH

ADB TA 7599-TAJ Climate Resiliency for Natural Resources Investments Typical Jamoat Climate Change Risk Assessment using Risk Index 2 DistrictFarkhorDangaraDarvozIshkoshim ProvinceKhatlon GBAO Risk Index 2%% Agricultural Land Flooded Land Households Houses Schools Clinics Crops Ha Power Lines Km Telephone Lines Km Hydraulic Structures Flood Embankments Km Irrigation Canals Km Bridges Roads Km People at Risk Total Population Total Risk Index