State Population Forecast: Office of Financial Management Forecasting Division November 29, 2012

Office of Financial Management General Findings State population growth is expected slow around The state’s population will become increasingly older each year. This aging process will cause a decline in the number of births due to a smaller proportion of women at child bearing age. At the same time, an elderly population is at greater risk of dying, thus contributing to an increase in the number of deaths. Migration is expected to bounce back to 45,000 annually after 2022 and will continue to serve as the main contributor to state population growth.

Office of Financial Management State Population Growth is Expected to Slow Mainly as the Result of an Increase in the Death Rate DecadePopulationBirthsDeaths Natural IncreaseNet Migration 20106,724, , , , , ,414, , , , , ,165, , , , , ,804,150 1,035, , , ,000 Decade Change Population Change Percent Population ChangeBirth RateDeath Rate Net Migration Rate , , , ,

Office of Financial Management Components of Population Change Natural increase is expected to decline from a level of 40,700 in 2010 to 15,600 by Migration will remain the main contributor to state population growth into the foreseeable future.

Office of Financial Management Between 2011 and 2029, all of the Baby Boomers will turn 65. While the total population is expected to grow by no more than 10 percent per decade in the next 30 years, the 65 and over population is expected to grow by 51 percent between , and 34 percent between By 2040, the 65 and over population is projected to reach 1.8 million—an increase of just over one million persons since As the Baby Boomers Age, the Demand for Senior Services Will Increase

Office of Financial Management Projected Change in Budget Driver Populations: Population growth in specific subgroups will affect major budget areas although the impacts will depend on policy choices, economic factors, and social conditions. Ages Males Ages General Population Ages 85+ Children Ages 0-17 Ages Ages 5-17 Ages 0-2

Office of Financial Management Contact Information Yi Zhao, Chief Demographer OFM / Forecasting