San Juan County Workers Workforce depletion since 1990 Why are our young people leaving? What can we do about it? A Report by the Orcas Research Group April 6, 2005

Our Population is Aging Our Population aged declined from 30% in 1990 to 20% in 2003 Meanwhile, those aged increased from 24% to 38% Source: US Census & WA Databook

Our Workforce Lags Population Growth Since 2000, our resident workforce declined from 51% to 44% Source: The Labor Market and Economic Analysis (LMEA) Branch of the Washington State Employment Security Department

Low Salaries are a Problem Over half of our workers have low paying jobs. Source: US Census, County Business Patterns & Washington Low Income Housing Alliance “Living Wage” $29,723

Cost of Housing is a Bigger Problem A typical 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is beyond the reach of many. Nearly twice the cost of equivalent homes on the mainland. Source: Washington Center for Real Estate Research

Priced out of the Market! With the cost of a 3 bedroom, 2 bath home now approaching $300,000, even with 5% fixed rate mortgages, few middle income families can buy. Source: HUD Income Categories based on 2005 Median Income

Losing Ground! Today home costs $215,000 Home now costs $339,000 Assumes 30 year, 20% down, 6% fixed rate mortgage, 8% appreciation, 3% inflation, 0.2%/year increase in interest.

Losing Ground! Assumes 30 year, 20% down, 6% fixed rate mortgage, 8% appreciation, 3% inflation, 0.2%/year increase in interest. Home now costs $437,000 Today home costs $275,000

Why do we care? Infrastructure Worker Survey (Orcas) –Teachers, Deputies, Paramedics, Utility Workers, Medical Staff, etc (~200 people). –18% to 29% turnover expected in next 5 years. –Approximately 25% will involve skills not available on-island. –Need to attract and retain critical skills moderate/middle income homes needed on Orcas Island in the next 5 years. Source: December 2004 Survey, Orcas Research Group

Solutions Needed… If we are going to solve this problem, we need to get creative in how we use public and private financing.

Is there hope? Yes, if we bring together our best ideas while there is still time to act. –Bring together public and private financing –Create an inventory of perpetually affordable homes. No, if we wait until we have to resort to draconian solutions. –We can learn from the experiences of Nantucket, Aspen, Hilton Head and others.

A Healthy Community is… A place where our working families can afford to live within the community.