Indian Ocean warming – its extent, and impact on the monsoon and marine productivity Western Indian Ocean experienced strong, monotonous warming during.

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Presentation transcript:

Indian Ocean warming – its extent, and impact on the monsoon and marine productivity Western Indian Ocean experienced strong, monotonous warming during the last century Links to asymmetry and skewness in ENSO forcing Largest ‘in-phase’ contributor to global SST warming Potential Impacts: Weakening of the monsoon Reduction in marine phytoplankton WIO RIO The relationship between sea surface temperature and precipitation has been always enigmatic. It is well known that warm tropical oceans, usually above 26C are conducive for active convection. It is not but clear how exactly precipitation/rainfall varies with SST, and what are the processes involved. In this talk I will be focusing on the SST precipitation relationship over the tropical monsoon basins and how it varies spatially. We will look into the statistical linearity and non-linearity of the relationship, and whether there is a threshold at which the increase in rainfall stops, and starts to decrease. Roxy M. K., K. Ritika, A. Modi, P. Terray, R. Murtugudde, K. Ashok, B. N. Goswami, S. Masson, V. Valsala, P. Swapna, S. Prasanna Kumar and M. Ravichandran Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune

Indian Ocean warming - background Basin-wide / Warm-pool warming in recent years Studies note basin-wide warming over Indian Ocean in the last 50 years Suggested cause: Apart from greenhouse warming, Weakening winds causing warming trends Warm SST weakening the winds which in turn warm SST again Warm-pool enlargement in recent years SST trend during last 50 yrs The relationship between sea surface temperature and precipitation has been always enigmatic. It is well known that warm tropical oceans, usually above 26C are conducive for active convection. It is not but clear how exactly precipitation/rainfall varies with SST, and what are the processes involved. In this talk I will be focusing on the SST precipitation relationship over the tropical monsoon basins and how it varies spatially. We will look into the statistical linearity and non-linearity of the relationship, and whether there is a threshold at which the increase in rainfall stops, and starts to decrease. Chambers et al. JGR, 1999; Alory et al. GRL, 2007; Rao et al. Climatic Change, 2012; Swapna et al. Climate Dynamics, 2013

Indian Ocean during the last century western Indian Ocean warmed up to 1.2degC, in 100 yrs a) Basin-wide warming over the Indian Ocean with enhanced, significant warming over western Indian Ocean. b) The western region has largest interannual variability over Indian Ocean. Warming here might influence monsoon dynamics! c) In early 1900s, the western Indian Ocean was much cooler than the warm-pool. The monotonous warming over west nullifies zonal SST gradient - may influence monsoon dynamics. The relationship between sea surface temperature and precipitation has been always enigmatic. It is well known that warm tropical oceans, usually above 26C are conducive for active convection. It is not but clear how exactly precipitation/rainfall varies with SST, and what are the processes involved. In this talk I will be focusing on the SST precipitation relationship over the tropical monsoon basins and how it varies spatially. We will look into the statistical linearity and non-linearity of the relationship, and whether there is a threshold at which the increase in rainfall stops, and starts to decrease. Mean summer (June-Sept) SST: The historical simulations with CMIP5 models do not reproduce the WIO warming (light pink color), which means that apart from direct radiative forcing due to greenhouse warming, other unaccounted mechanisms might be responsible (eg: ENSO variability) Roxy et al. J.Climate, 2014

SST > 28degC = enhanced convection Mean summer (June-Sept) SST: Significant increase in precipitation with respect to higher SSTs. The relationship between sea surface temperature and precipitation has been always enigmatic. It is well known that warm tropical oceans, usually above 26C are conducive for active convection. It is not but clear how exactly precipitation/rainfall varies with SST, and what are the processes involved. In this talk I will be focusing on the SST precipitation relationship over the tropical monsoon basins and how it varies spatially. We will look into the statistical linearity and non-linearity of the relationship, and whether there is a threshold at which the increase in rainfall stops, and starts to decrease. SST-precipitation relationship when the lag is considered Gadgil et al., Nature, 1984; Roxy, Climate Dynamics, 2013

Asymmetry in ENSO forcing Influence of El Niño > La Niña El Niño induce significant easterly anomalies and positive SST anomalies over w.Indian Ocean but... La Niña events does not result in significant anomalies over the Indian Ocean The relationship between sea surface temperature and precipitation has been always enigmatic. It is well known that warm tropical oceans, usually above 26C are conducive for active convection. It is not but clear how exactly precipitation/rainfall varies with SST, and what are the processes involved. In this talk I will be focusing on the SST precipitation relationship over the tropical monsoon basins and how it varies spatially. We will look into the statistical linearity and non-linearity of the relationship, and whether there is a threshold at which the increase in rainfall stops, and starts to decrease.

Skewness in El Niño forcing Increase in Frequency and Magnitude of El Niños Indian Ocean warming (above) associated with positive skewness over east Pacific (below) The relationship between sea surface temperature and precipitation has been always enigmatic. It is well known that warm tropical oceans, usually above 26C are conducive for active convection. It is not but clear how exactly precipitation/rainfall varies with SST, and what are the processes involved. In this talk I will be focusing on the SST precipitation relationship over the tropical monsoon basins and how it varies spatially. We will look into the statistical linearity and non-linearity of the relationship, and whether there is a threshold at which the increase in rainfall stops, and starts to decrease. Detrended anomalies show increase in frequency and strength of El Niños. The warm events over Indian Ocean also has increased. Occasionally, they cross the El Niño criteria (1 S.D. = 0.77 degC).

Indian Ocean warms without greenhouse gas forcing Simulations (with-without) ENSO variability shows IO warming Model simulations using latest SINTEX coupled model with realistic ENSO variability Magnitude of warming without greenhouse gas forcing is weak though The relationship between sea surface temperature and precipitation has been always enigmatic. It is well known that warm tropical oceans, usually above 26C are conducive for active convection. It is not but clear how exactly precipitation/rainfall varies with SST, and what are the processes involved. In this talk I will be focusing on the SST precipitation relationship over the tropical monsoon basins and how it varies spatially. We will look into the statistical linearity and non-linearity of the relationship, and whether there is a threshold at which the increase in rainfall stops, and starts to decrease.

Largest contributor to global warming? Indian Ocean warming “in phase” with global warming The relationship between sea surface temperature and precipitation has been always enigmatic. It is well known that warm tropical oceans, usually above 26C are conducive for active convection. It is not but clear how exactly precipitation/rainfall varies with SST, and what are the processes involved. In this talk I will be focusing on the SST precipitation relationship over the tropical monsoon basins and how it varies spatially. We will look into the statistical linearity and non-linearity of the relationship, and whether there is a threshold at which the increase in rainfall stops, and starts to decrease.

Land-sea contrast decrease in the past century Contradicts model/observations for Northern Hemisphere Though models and observations suggest increase in land-sea contrast over Northern Hemisphere due to global warming, it is different over South Asia/Indian Ocean. The decrease in land-sea contrast reflects in tropospheric temperature gradients also. Observations suggest an increase in land-sea contrast over Northern Hemisphere during recent decades The relationship between sea surface temperature and precipitation has been always enigmatic. It is well known that warm tropical oceans, usually above 26C are conducive for active convection. It is not but clear how exactly precipitation/rainfall varies with SST, and what are the processes involved. In this talk I will be focusing on the SST precipitation relationship over the tropical monsoon basins and how it varies spatially. We will look into the statistical linearity and non-linearity of the relationship, and whether there is a threshold at which the increase in rainfall stops, and starts to decrease. Roxy et al. Nature Communications, 2015, Revised

Warm Indian Ocean, Weak south Asian Monsoon Indian Ocean warming well correlated with weak Precip. (a) & (b) Decreasing trend in precipitation from Pakistan through central India to Bangladesh. Significant over central Indian subcontinent (horse-shoe pattern) (c) & (d) Trend and correlation with western Indian Ocean warming has similar patterns! Correlation of detrended anomalies: The relationship between sea surface temperature and precipitation has been always enigmatic. It is well known that warm tropical oceans, usually above 26C are conducive for active convection. It is not but clear how exactly precipitation/rainfall varies with SST, and what are the processes involved. In this talk I will be focusing on the SST precipitation relationship over the tropical monsoon basins and how it varies spatially. We will look into the statistical linearity and non-linearity of the relationship, and whether there is a threshold at which the increase in rainfall stops, and starts to decrease.

Weakened Monsoon precip/winds due to warming Model simulations with Indian Ocean warming Model simulated warming of WIO Model simulated response to warming The relationship between sea surface temperature and precipitation has been always enigmatic. It is well known that warm tropical oceans, usually above 26C are conducive for active convection. It is not but clear how exactly precipitation/rainfall varies with SST, and what are the processes involved. In this talk I will be focusing on the SST precipitation relationship over the tropical monsoon basins and how it varies spatially. We will look into the statistical linearity and non-linearity of the relationship, and whether there is a threshold at which the increase in rainfall stops, and starts to decrease. Decreasing rainfall over the south Asian subcontinent: horse-shoe pattern in model simulations with increased IO warming

Weakening local Hadley circulation: Convection enhanced over ocean and suppressed over land Observations: trend in vertical velocity Simulations: change in vertical velocity in response to Indian Ocean warming The relationship between sea surface temperature and precipitation has been always enigmatic. It is well known that warm tropical oceans, usually above 26C are conducive for active convection. It is not but clear how exactly precipitation/rainfall varies with SST, and what are the processes involved. In this talk I will be focusing on the SST precipitation relationship over the tropical monsoon basins and how it varies spatially. We will look into the statistical linearity and non-linearity of the relationship, and whether there is a threshold at which the increase in rainfall stops, and starts to decrease.

Warming – Marine Primary Production western Indian Ocean is a highly productive region... The relationship between sea surface temperature and precipitation has been always enigmatic. It is well known that warm tropical oceans, usually above 26C are conducive for active convection. It is not but clear how exactly precipitation/rainfall varies with SST, and what are the processes involved. In this talk I will be focusing on the SST precipitation relationship over the tropical monsoon basins and how it varies spatially. We will look into the statistical linearity and non-linearity of the relationship, and whether there is a threshold at which the increase in rainfall stops, and starts to decrease.

Reduction in Marine Primary Production Chlorophyll trends in observations and simulations Historical Simulations: Best of CMIP5/ MPI-ESM-MR 1950-2005 Observations: Merged (SeaWiFS, MODIS, and MERIS) 1998 - present Chlorophyll trends The relationship between sea surface temperature and precipitation has been always enigmatic. It is well known that warm tropical oceans, usually above 26C are conducive for active convection. It is not but clear how exactly precipitation/rainfall varies with SST, and what are the processes involved. In this talk I will be focusing on the SST precipitation relationship over the tropical monsoon basins and how it varies spatially. We will look into the statistical linearity and non-linearity of the relationship, and whether there is a threshold at which the increase in rainfall stops, and starts to decrease.

Warming stratifies the ocean - and suppresses the mixing of nutrients from the subsurface, reducing chlorophyll SST-Chl: significant long-term correlation Wind-Chl: No significant long-term correlation Enhanced stratification due to increasing SST Stratification highly correlated to the reduction in Chl The relationship between sea surface temperature and precipitation has been always enigmatic. It is well known that warm tropical oceans, usually above 26C are conducive for active convection. It is not but clear how exactly precipitation/rainfall varies with SST, and what are the processes involved. In this talk I will be focusing on the SST precipitation relationship over the tropical monsoon basins and how it varies spatially. We will look into the statistical linearity and non-linearity of the relationship, and whether there is a threshold at which the increase in rainfall stops, and starts to decrease.

Reduced plankton might increase the fish stress Along with the stress from fisheries industries... The relationship between sea surface temperature and precipitation has been always enigmatic. It is well known that warm tropical oceans, usually above 26C are conducive for active convection. It is not but clear how exactly precipitation/rainfall varies with SST, and what are the processes involved. In this talk I will be focusing on the SST precipitation relationship over the tropical monsoon basins and how it varies spatially. We will look into the statistical linearity and non-linearity of the relationship, and whether there is a threshold at which the increase in rainfall stops, and starts to decrease.

Indian Ocean warming – its extent, and impact on the monsoon and marine productivity Western Indian Ocean experienced strong, monotonous warming during last century Links to asymmetry and skewness in ENSO forcing Largest ‘in-phase’ contributor to global SST warming Potential Impacts: Weakening of the monsoon Reduction of marine phytoplankton The relationship between sea surface temperature and precipitation has been always enigmatic. It is well known that warm tropical oceans, usually above 26C are conducive for active convection. It is not but clear how exactly precipitation/rainfall varies with SST, and what are the processes involved. In this talk I will be focusing on the SST precipitation relationship over the tropical monsoon basins and how it varies spatially. We will look into the statistical linearity and non-linearity of the relationship, and whether there is a threshold at which the increase in rainfall stops, and starts to decrease.