CT1/CT3 Meeting 22-23 April 2013 Hamburg Predictability associated with the Atlantic ocean SST variability G. Gastineau, J. Garcia-Serrano, C. Frankignoul.

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Presentation transcript:

CT1/CT3 Meeting April 2013 Hamburg Predictability associated with the Atlantic ocean SST variability G. Gastineau, J. Garcia-Serrano, C. Frankignoul

Introduction Atlantic ocean SST variability : AMO + North Atlantic Horseshoe Are both pattern related? What are their influence on the European/American climate?

Data and methods Data : Atmosphere : 20CR-NOAA reanalysis (56 members) SST : HadISST Global warming influence removed : SST : Regression over the global mean SST time series removed Atmosphere : detrend

Global SST warming

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation AMO = low pass (10-yr) filtered North Atlantic SST AMO-proj = SST filtered with a ¼ ½ ¼ filtered projected onto AMO spatial pattern

Climatic impact of AMO

Maximum covariance analysis

North Atlantic Horseshoe Such mode is found in all ensemble members (at least for OND) PDF for NAH significance in OND SC R

Climate impact of NAH

Links horseshoe - AMO AMO-proj AMO-std

Non-stationarity Moving correlation between NAH and AMO using 20-yr window : Moving correlation between NAH and NAO in NDJ using 20-yr window :

Ongoing work Remove remote influence of Indo-Pacific variability Explain the non-stationary in the AMO-NAH links Compare the relative influence of SST to that of snow cover and sea ice cover. Focus also on the summer impacts of AMO

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union 7th Framework Programme (FP ), under grant agreement n NACLIM