Overview of the IPCC WG2 AR4 assessment: Where it is and where it needs to go Chris Field Carnegie Institution: Department of Global Ecology

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Presentation transcript:

Overview of the IPCC WG2 AR4 assessment: Where it is and where it needs to go Chris Field Carnegie Institution: Department of Global Ecology

Success of the IPCC Stakeholder buy-in Reputation for credibility Stakeholder buy-in

WG2: Impacts, Adaptation, & Vulnerability AR4 – Martin Parry & Osvaldo Canziani TAR – Jim McCarthy & Osvaldo Canziani SAR – Bob Watson & Marufu Zinyowera FAR – W.J. McGTegart & Gordon Sheldon AR5 - ?

WG2: AR4 6 sectors 8 Regions Water Ecosystems Food, Fiber & Forest Products Coastal Systems Industry Settlement, & Society Human Health Africa Asia Australia & New Zealand Europe Latin America North America Polar Regions Small Islands

IPCC process

Key elements Comprehensive assessment Multiple layers of monitored review Consensus approval by governments

WG2: Where it is Lists ---

& family quarrels

IPCC: Where it needs to go Integration among working groups Scenarios Adaptation Mechanisms in WG2 Specific, coordinated impact studies

AR 5 scenarios

Adaptation Move beyond anecdote –Analysis of many specific cases –Longitudinal analysis Explore in a unified framework with mitigation

Mechanisms in WG2 NPP & carbon cycle Wildfire Crop & forest insect pests Biodiversity Agriculture & Land Use Sea level rise Storms & Other extreme events

Specific, coordinated impact studies Parallel to WG1 Major investment in impact models –MIPs Coordinated agenda Utilize model runs from the archive Multi-model analyses

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