Rabies Epidemiology in Raccoon dogs and foxes A Singer K Kauhala K Holmala GC Smith

Raccoon dogs invasive high population density Why successful ? omnivorous large litters hibernate (Photo: K. Kauhala)

Risk of persistent rabies in Finland Epidemiology is influenced by: Two vectors relative density inner- and inter-specific transmission Behavioural differences reproduction hibernation

Rac dog – Healthy Reproduction Mortality Hibernation Rac dog – Rabid Rac dog – Infected Reproduction Mortality Hibernation Infection Incubate Rac dog – Healthy Reproduction Mortality Hibernation Rac dog – Rabid Rac dog – Infected Reproduction Mortality Hibernation Infection Incubate Two vectors rabies disease model Fox – Healthy Reproduction Mortality Fox – Rabid Fox – Infected Reproduction Mortality Infection Incubate

Joint threshold density for rabies risk Threshold density for 70% risk in foxes Threshold density raccoon dogs Rabies risk below 70 %

Joint threshold density for rabies risk Rabies risk below 70 % Population densities (Southern Finland)

Scenarios for Vaccination Strategies Assessment of threshold 90% eradication success after 5 years Intended vaccination campaign 3 years spring and autumn vaccination 50% susceptibles are vaccinated Complications only foxes vaccinated spring vaccination too early for hibernating raccoon dogs no raccoon dog hibernation in warmer climates

Effects of vaccination - hibernation

Effects of vaccination – active in winter

Conclusion Both vector species are relevant Vaccination of foxes only is insufficient Late vaccination in spring Hibernation reduces risk of an outbreak Thank you for your attention !