Small pelagic fish responses to future climate change Ito S. et al. (2010) Ocean ecosystem responses to future global change scenarios: A way forward,

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Presentation transcript:

Small pelagic fish responses to future climate change Ito S. et al. (2010) Ocean ecosystem responses to future global change scenarios: A way forward, In: M. Barange, J.G. Field, R.H. Harris, E. Hofmann, R. I. Perry, F. Werner (Eds) Global Change and Marine Ecosystems. Oxford University Press., , pp440. Shin-ichi Ito & Takeshi Okunishi (FRA) Reviewed fish responses to future climate change. Recently published several papers relating fish responses to future climate change. 1.Ito S., T. Okunishi, M. J. Kishi and M. Wang (2013) Modelling ecological responses of Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) to future climate change and its uncertainty, ICES J. Mar. Sci., 70, Yatsu A., S. Chiba, Y. Yamanaka, S. Ito, Y. Shimizu, M. Kaeriyama, and Y. Watanabe, 2013, Climate forcing and the Kuroshio/Oyashio ecosystem, ICES J. Mar. Sci., 70, Okunishi T., S. Ito, T. Hashioka, T. T. Sakamoto, N. Yoshie, H. Sumata, Y. Yara, N. Okada, Y. Yamanaka, 2012: Impacts of climate change on growth, migration and recruitment success of Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) in the western North Pacific, Climatic Change.

Ito S., T. Okunishi, M. J. Kishi and M. Wang (2013) Modelling ecological responses of Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) to future climate change and its uncertainty, ICES J. Mar. Sci., 70, cv 30 cm Distribution of Pacific saury in June-July 2007 (FRA surface trawl survey) Catch of Pacific saury Ito et al. (2013) Pacific saury widely distribute in the North Pacific. It is exploited in several countries and an international fish.

NEMURO.FISH NEMURO for Including Saury and Herring Megrey et al. (2007a, Ecol. Model.), Ito et al. (2004b Fish. Oceanogr.) etc. nutrient phyto zoo fish

wet weight of saury Ensemble experiment with 12 IPCC-SSTs (A1B senario) (A1B senario) Control run ( ) 3 categories 1) reduction of weight in the 1st and 2nd years ccsm3, gfdl20, mirocH, mirocM, mpi, ukhadcm3 2) reduction of weight in the 2nd year cccmat47, cccmat63, gfdl21, miub 3) no decrease (or increase) of weight pcm1, mri Ito et al. (2013, ICES J. Mar. Sci.)

3 emission scenarios Saury decreased their weight in 24 cases in 33 cases (73%). Egg production was enhance in 11 cases in 33 cases (33%) Dependency on emission scenarios A2A1BB1 ukhadcm31st&2nd year decrease mirocH1st&2nd year decrease mirocM1st&2nd year decrease 2nd year decrease cccm32nd year decrease1st&2nd year decrease2nd year decrease mpi2nd year decrease1st&2nd year decreaseno decrease gfdl20no decrease1st&2nd year decrease miub1st&2nd year decrease2nd year decrease cccmat632nd year decreaseno decrease ccmat472nd year decrease no decrease gfdl21no decrease2nd year decrease mri2nd year decreaseno decrease2nd year decrease pcm1no decrease Ito et al. (2013, ICES J. Mar. Sci.)

2 categories reduction of weight in the 1st year ccsm3, gfdl20, mirocH, mirocM, mpi, ukhadcm3 no decrease or increase of weight cccmat47, cccmat63, gfdl21, miub, pcm1, mri With future SST & current zooplankton Ensemble experiment with only SST forcing A1B Control run ( ) no decrease in second year SST effects only on juvenile’s growth. Ito et al. (2013, ICES J. Mar. Sci.)

Yatsu A., S. Chiba, Y. Yamanaka, S. Ito, Y. Shimizu, M. Kaeriyama, and Y. Watanabe, 2013, Climate forcing and the Kuroshio/Oyashio ecosystem, ICES J. Mar. Sci., 70, Published contributions of CFAME activity. Summarize the climate effects on the Kuroshio/Oyashio ecosystems.

Spawning regions Area-1 Area-2 Area-3 Area-4 Control-RUN Fig. Proportion of hatched numbers in the four spawning regions CO 2 -RUN Okunishi et al. (2012), Climatic Change Spawning grounds of Japanese sardine Projection Spawning grounds shifts to north-eastward.

LowHighRelative density Control-RUN CO 2 -RUN Spring Summer Change in Geographical Distribution Age 1 Okunishi et al. (2012), Climatic Change