Hiawatha Transit Corridor Evaluation June 15, 2005 Mark Fuhrmann Todd Graham

Hiawatha LRT Project Scope 12 miles between Minneapolis, MSP, and Mall of America 17 stations $715 million project cost $334 million FTA New Starts funding Before and After Study required by FTA

Hiawatha Before & After Study Capital Costs Constructed to scope Constrained by color of money Constructed within $715 million budget

Hiawatha Before & After Study Operation & Maintenance Costs Benchmark with peer LRT systems Compare forecast with actual Managed competition opportunities

Hiawatha Before & After Study Service Levels Transit –Light Rail –Bus Trunk Highway 55 (Hiawatha Ave) –Daily volumes –Peak Period volumes

Hiawatha Before & After Study Ridership Patterns Light Rail –LRT line –Individual stations Bus –Hiawatha corridor –Individual bus routes

Hiawatha Before & After Study Ridership Profile Minneapolis to Fort Snelling – 80% have car available – 37% drove to a station – 26% walked to a station – 44% transferred to or from a bus – 39% new to transit

Hiawatha Before & After Study Impacts on development Value of new building permits –Residential, C/I, total –By station area - by year New (or planned) housing units permitted –By station area - by year Total housing units associated with parcels –By station area - by year

Hiawatha Before & After Study Economic impacts: Real estate Property values and value growth –Residential, C/I, total - land, buildings and total –By station area - by year

Hiawatha Before & After Study Economic impacts: Labor market Employment based in the area –Job totals and payroll totals –By station area - by year Employed residents of the area* –Low-, mid- and high-wage –Employed in the area or employed elsewhere * Currently exploring availability of this data

Lessons from studies elsewhere Economic and development measures most in use –Population or housing density –Increase in property values (sales or assessed) –Quantity of mixed-use (structures or sq ft) –Development investment (bldg permit valuations) –Number of convenience and retail establishments –Employment density From a Rutgers Univ survey of transportation planners Source: John Renne and Jan Wells, “TOD: Developing a strategy to measure success,” in Research Results Digest, Feb 2005

Hiawatha Before & After Study Economic impacts: Real estate Property values and value growth –Residential, C/I, total - land, buildings and total –By station area - by year Value growth will be significant trend –Proximity to LRT provides improved accessibility to places we want to go… –Property will be developed + values will be bid up

Get data -> Analyze -> Analyze again Met Council analysis: Start with total assessed value in station areas –Issue: Both value bid-up + new development reflected in totals –Issue: Value growth everywhere, not just in corridor, driven by regional market conditions –Dissecting cause is a challenge

Property value growth (preliminary)

Lessons from studies elsewhere Hedonic price models –Dissect price changes by area accounting for other factors What effect the proximity of LRT service? Change +1 yr, +2 yrs, +3 yrs after service start? Other factors to account for: Size, condition, neighborhood quality, neighborhood amenities –Issue: Data obtained so far lacking property details needed for such analysis