Willem A. Landman. Objective multi-model forecast Subjective consensus forecast.

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Presentation transcript:

Willem A. Landman

Objective multi-model forecast Subjective consensus forecast

Atmospheric Modelling Strategic Initiative (AMSI) Component 1 High- resolution Weather Forecasting (1-10 days) Weather and Climate Modelling at the NRE Component 2 Long-Range Forecasting (Weeks to months) Component 3 Climate Change Projections (Decadal and multi- decadal) Component 4 Model Development SEAMLESS FORECASTING: Using common forecast systems to predict for multiple time scales Operational Forecasting

50 km 15 km

Nudging: 200 – 50 – 15 km

A new cube-based coupled GCM: VCM Cube-based AGCM VCAM - CSIRO Cube-based OGCM (JAMSTEC) Coupling (CSIR) University of Tokyo Climate Model (to be installed on multi-processor machine at CSIR) JAMSTEC (SINTEX-F) Three-way collaborative agreement being compiled

 Forecast verification  Further optimizing of MOS forecasts for SADC  Seamless systems for intra-seasonal characteristics  Optimized global SST forecasts  Multi-institutional multi-model forecasts  Investing in coupled models for operational forecasting

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