The Future of Decision Support Services Mark Fox Warning & Coordination Meteorologist WFO Fort Worth/Dallas November 23, 20151www.weather.gov/fortworth

Why Decision Support ? November 23, 2015www.weather.gov/fortworth2

The Monolith Monsters Made in 1957 – true in 2009 Weather Briefings still done essentially the same as in the movie Weather Information still gathered essentially the same as in the movie The decisions being made are still essentially the same as in the movie – What does it mean for me? November 23, 2015www.weather.gov/fortworth3

What Has Changed ? Technology – Compare 2009 to 2000 Cell Phones Social Networks Internet Accessibility Internet Storage Capability RADAR availability GIS Pre 9/11/2001 November 23, 2015www.weather.gov/fortworth4

Change is Continuous Meteorology has and hasn’t changed all that much (technology) Goal is still the same – Emergency Management : Protect People – National Weather Service: Protect People The way we approach the mission is changing November 23, 2015www.weather.gov/fortworth5

Mindset Changes Traditional NWS Products >> Service Here ‘it’ is Phenomenon Spending time on the routine forecast Producing the forecast Decision Support NWS Products & Services Here is what ‘it’ means Phenomenon produces Impacts Spending time training for the extreme events Providing Service with the forecast November 23, 2015www.weather.gov/fortworth6

Mindset Changes Traditional NWSDecision Support NWS November 23, 2015www.weather.gov/fortworth7

The Dilemma Each of these transitions makes perfect sense Each of these transitions goes against NWS culture For instance – “I didn’t sign up to tell people about impacts, I signed up to forecast the weather.” – “We provide the forecast. Whatever they do with it when they get it is up to them.” – “A good forecast is all they need.” November 23, 2015www.weather.gov/fortworth8

Why the local NWS exists Everyone or anyone can see weather information Depending on Expertise…we see things differently November 23, 2015www.weather.gov/fortworth9

For Instance…EM’s What do you see ? November 23, 2015www.weather.gov/fortworth10

For Instance…Mets What do you see ? November 23, 2015www.weather.gov/fortworth11

For Instance…Jose or Steve What do you see ? November 23, 2015www.weather.gov/fortworth12 Similar setup to May 15, tornadoes EF2 or greater Numerous golf-ball hail (or larger)reports Wind Damage Numerous trucks blown off of Interstate 40 =

Decision Support You can get a forecast anywhere at anytime You can’t get your own personal meteorologist at your beck and call anywhere else – Not without paying extra – Not one with your same goal in mind: the protection of life and property We exist to help you make decisions November 23, 2015www.weather.gov/fortworth13

Making the Change Operationally, we (NWS) should be closer to the EM model.* November 23, 2015www.weather.gov/fortworth14

Making The Change Plan Train ExerciseExecute Evaluate November 23, 2015www.weather.gov/fortworth15

Making The Change Forecast Simulate Severe Events Evaluate Simulation Severe Event Lessons Learned November 23, 2015www.weather.gov/fortworth16

Current System Routine Forecast Severe Event Train November 23, 2015www.weather.gov/fortworth17

The Model Southern Region Decision Support Team visited NASA in April Focused on their simulation training and operations – Plan, Train, Fly November 23, 2015www.weather.gov/fortworth18

STS – 125 Simulation November 23, 2015www.weather.gov/fortworth19 Photo by William Bunting

NASA Simulation Simulation? More like a dress rehearsal Several things stood out to me: – Flight Director demanded realism – Simulation lasted all day long – People were sweating the big decisions – Feedback was instant – Feedback was welcome November 23, 2015www.weather.gov/fortworth20

Amarillo TORex09 Same things stood out to me: – Emergency Management demanded realism – Simulation occurred in real time – People were sweating big decisions – Feedback was instantaneous – Feedback was welcome November 23, 2015www.weather.gov/fortworth21

Learning Opportunities How can NWS and EM community train together? – When appropriate and necessary – Tabletop exercises – Full blown simulations – Workshops – Routine Drills November 23, 2015www.weather.gov/fortworth22

Learning Opportunities Shouldn’t stop at the drill level – Evaluation of training as important as the training itself – Are we doing what we should be doing? – Are we doing it effectively? – Are we continually improving? – Are we a part of your operations? – Are you a part of our operations? November 23, 2015www.weather.gov/fortworth23

Questions We Can’t Answer Shouldn’t stop at the drill level – Evaluation of training as important as the training itself – Are we doing what we should be doing? – Are we doing it effectively? – Are we continually improving? – Are we a part of your operations? – Are you a part of our operations? November 23, 2015www.weather.gov/fortworth24

The Trade-Off Routine forecast mostly automated – Forecasters always diagnosing and forecasting the meteorology of the situation Focus is then on impact situations – Forecast is for X Forecast discussion explaining why X is most likely Graphical forecast showing X and potential for Y Recorded Briefing explaining that Y could happen and how. Web page explaining X, Y and Z are possible Phone calls / s with updates November 23, 2015www.weather.gov/fortworth25

Skills For the Future Communication – Written – Verbal – Graphical Meteorology & Hydrology – Remains the Foundation – NWS should be the experts November 23, 2015www.weather.gov/fortworth26

Skills For the Future Confidence – Meteorology still not an exact science Incident Command Structure – Where does our information fit – Not always the most important piece of data Detailing weather information to known decision points – Must know the decision points November 23, 2015www.weather.gov/fortworth27

The Bottom Line This is a partnership…plain and simple For the NWS to be effective, we need you You need the NWS to be effective November 23, 2015www.weather.gov/fortworth28

Thank You Questions ? Comments ? Threats ? – – November 23, 2015www.weather.gov/fortworth29